The flying car industry is popular, but there are still bottlenecks to be broken

Civil Aviation Resources Network 2024-04-26 News: With the rapid progress of science and technology, flying cars have gradually moved from the concept of science fiction movies to real life. According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the flying car market will reach $320 billion by 2030. The total market size for urban air mobility is expected to reach $1 trillion and $9 trillion by 2040 and 2050. In addition, driven by the dual strategies of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and digital economy, urban low-altitude travel has ushered in a historic opportunity. Flying cars can play a special role in many fields such as emergency rescue, sightseeing experience, low-altitude logistics, and three-dimensional transportation. However, despite the many potential advantages of this new type of transportation, its acceptance in the market is influenced by a number of factors.

From the perspective of technology maturity and security

As a product that integrates aviation and automotive technology, the first thing that needs to be overcome is the technical maturity and safety issues. As a new type of transportation, the core technical problems that need to be solved include efficient power systems, advanced flight control systems, and compact and safe body structures. The current battery technology cannot fully meet the needs of long-term and long-distance flight, and flight control algorithms also need to achieve a high degree of autonomy and intelligence in a complex and changeable environment.

Xiang Changle, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out in a recent report entitled "Development Status and Key Technology Progress of Flying Cars" that due to the difficulties of vertical take-off and landing caused by the complex buildings and complex landforms of urban air-ground mixed space, the difficulty of stable control caused by the complex meteorological environment of the urban boundary layer and the large turbulence of airflow, the difficulty of green and low noise, the difficulty of intelligent management and control caused by the complex comprehensive traffic situation, the large number of multiple vehicles in the air and on the ground, and the difficulty of cluster scheduling caused by high-density operation. Electromagnetic spectrum interlacing, building occlusion, communication and positioning obstruction caused by factors such as difficult positioning and navigation are all challenges that need to be faced in the current flying car technology.

From a safety perspective, the safety of a flying car is first and foremost reflected in its design and manufacturing process. Compared to traditional cars and airplanes, flying cars need to meet the operational requirements of two different environments, both on land and in the air. This means that flying cars must have excellent structural strength, dynamic performance and stability to cope with a variety of complex climatic conditions and unexpected situations. In addition, the control system of the flying car must also be rigorously tested and optimized to ensure precise control and stable performance in a variety of flight conditions. In addition to design and manufacturing, the safety of a flying car is closely related to the environment in which it operates. In the air, flying cars need to share airspace with other aircraft, which requires flying cars to have advanced perception and obstacle avoidance technologies to ensure safety in air traffic. In addition, flying cars need to coordinate with ground traffic to avoid collisions with ground obstacles or other vehicles. Therefore, an efficient and intelligent traffic management system is essential to ensure the safety of flying cars. In addition, driving a flying car requires a higher level of professional knowledge and skills than traditional cars and airplanes. Drivers need to be familiar not only with the operation and maintenance of flying cars, but also with an understanding of air traffic rules and meteorological conditions. Therefore, the training and certification of flying car drivers is also an important part of ensuring the safety of flying cars.

Current regulatory policy and regulatory environment

At present, the regulations and policies of flying cars are still in the exploration stage. Governments around the world are working to develop and improve regulations, such as the European Union's Air Traffic Master Plan, to accommodate the development of this emerging industry. These regulations mainly deal with the manufacturing standards of flying cars, driving qualifications, air traffic management, safety requirements, etc. However, due to the complexity and innovation of flying car technology, many regulations and policies are still being adjusted and improved.

In addition, the regulatory environment for flying cars faces many challenges. On the one hand, the existing traffic supervision system is mainly aimed at ground vehicles, while the emergence of flying cars requires the establishment of a new air traffic supervision system. On the other hand, the safety and reliability of flying cars are also the focus of regulatory attention. How to ensure that flying cars can operate safely and efficiently in the air and on the ground is an important issue that regulators need to solve.

Since the beginning of this year, from the State Council, the provincial level to the prefecture-level cities, a number of policy documents related to the low-altitude economy have been intensively promulgated. Among them, the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline", "Interim Regulations on the Flight Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles", "Outline for the Development of Green Aviation Manufacturing Industry (2023-2035)", "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Airspace Management (Draft for Comments)" and other major policies have gradually lifted the policy restrictions on the commercialization of eVTOLs.

Yu Yi, a professor of the Department of General Aviation of the Civil Aviation Management Cadre College, suggested that first of all, in terms of the concept of supervision, the breadth, depth and frequency of the application of flying car products far exceed that of traditional civil aviation transport services, and socialized supervision is required, such as the individual driver should be responsible for his own safety. Secondly, in terms of tools, as a product born in the digital age, flying cars are fundamentally characterized by digital, smart and green, so the new regulation must adapt to new needs and establish a digital regulatory toolbox, such as the supervision of algorithms, the evaluation of computing power, and the classification and classification of data. Third, in terms of rhythm, it is necessary to handle the relationship between supervision and innovation, not only to keep the bottom line, but also to support innovation and exploration.

Economic cost and market positioning

Although some data show that the cost of flying cars is much lower than that of traditional small aircraft, the cost per 100 kilometers is about 18 yuan, which is only 20% of that of traditional small aircraft. The maintenance cost of an electric flying car is about half that of a traditional small aircraft.

But the manufacturing and maintenance costs of flying cars are still high, and flying cars are sold for much more than regular cars, which puts most consumers off. In addition, operating costs are relatively high, especially fuel costs and maintenance costs. All of these factors have limited the speed of adoption of flying cars. In order to become ubiquitous with flying cars, it is necessary to reduce production costs and improve economic viability. This requires scientific research institutions and enterprises to continuously carry out technological innovation, and at the same time, it also requires the government to provide policy support and financial subsidies.

The cost of flying cars can be broadly divided into three parts: R&D costs, production costs, and operating costs. R&D cost is an indispensable investment in the process of building a flying car from scratch, covering technology research and development, prototype manufacturing, testing and verification. This part of the cost is usually higher, but as the technology matures and large-scale production, the unit cost will gradually decrease. Production costs refer to the expenses incurred in the process of transforming a flying car from a prototype to an actual product, including material costs, manufacturing costs, labor costs, etc. Operating costs refer to the expenses incurred during the use of flying cars, such as fuel costs, maintenance costs, insurance costs, etc.

Suggestions for the future development of flying cars

Academician Xiang Changle suggested in the report on "Development Status and Key Technology Progress of Flying Cars" that the development path, policy and ecological construction of flying cars should first be promoted according to national conditions. The development and implementation of the flying car industry in mainland China provides policy guarantees, improves and creates relevant industrial and social ecology, and establishes a talent training system to meet the development needs of flying cars. In terms of technology leadership, we will integrate the layout and promote breakthroughs in the technical problems of flying cars. Flying cars require long-endurance power and high-specific energy power batteries, and battery energy density is one of the core factors that determine whether eVTOL can be commercialized. The commercialization of flying cars requires that the energy density of battery packs must be increased to more than 300-400Wh/kg. Flying cars have very high requirements for lightweight bodies. The lightweight body technology mainly includes the aerodynamics of the whole machine and the lightweight material technology, which is currently in the continuous optimization stage. At present, the low-altitude flight intelligent driving technology is in the early stage of development, and most eVTOLs are equipped with pilots, and it is expected that the high-level intelligent driving technology will be commercialized in the future, which will require the collaborative management of the entire system continuation system.