Although Lao Siji lost money today, as long as the brothers made money, they were also very happy.
One
Today's big A rose sharply, mainly because foreign capital bought 22.4 billion.
The first positive is that three years ago, Evergrande was upgraded to the chief real estate officer with a sell rating, and he is bullish on Chinese real estate.
Lin Zhenhong, chief of UBS Real Estate, who upgraded Evergrande to a sell rating in January 2021, has recently turned bullish on Chinese property developers.
The reasons are: government policy strength, China's leverage is lower than the scenario of the United States and Japan, supply is reduced, supply and demand may reverse next year.
He predicts that in 2025, real estate supply and demand will reach historical averages, and the stocks of real estate companies with heavy land reserves in 21 major cities will rise.
Today's real estate stocks rose first, Poly rose 8%, Hong Kong stocks China Overseas Land rose 8%, and China Resources Land rose 6.7%.
Jiang Cheng and Zhang Yifei, whom I hold and recommend, happen to have a heavy position in real estate.
来源：Wind
Recommended in the group on March 29, not only did I not feel much of the sharp drop in April, but I still made money in the past 1 month.
Two
The second good news is that last night's U.S. economic data showed that the growth rate slowed down, while inflation remained high, which was negative for technology stocks, and funds flowed back to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, lower than economists' forecasts of 2.4%.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was revised to 3.9% from 3.4%.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a key inflation variable for the Fed, grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the quarter, the biggest increase in a year and up from 1.8% in the fourth quarter.
Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose 3.7% versus 3.4% forecast and 2.0% previously, both well above the Fed's 2% target.
The third positive is the depreciation of the yen, and the return of funds to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
Since the concentrated withdrawal of foreign capital in August last year, capital in the Asia-Pacific region has mainly flowed to Japan, which has also led to a window of rapid decline in US bond interest rates since October last year, with Hong Kong stocks barely rising, while the Nikkei index led the global rally (China and Japan are the two largest markets in the Asia-Pacific region, and the two are seesaws for each other).
Foreign investors are betting on the double appreciation of Japanese stocks and the yen after the normalization of Japan's monetary policy.
However, this logic was falsified after the Bank of Japan began to raise interest rates this year, and the yen depreciated further and rapidly, with the largest depreciation among major non-US currencies.
Therefore, some capital has recently returned to Hong Kong, which is also the core reason why the Nikkei index has led the decline in developed markets since Japan's interest rate hike on March 19, while Hong Kong stocks have led the rise, which is basically the reverse interpretation of last year.
These are the three main reasons for the explosion of 20 billion yuan by foreign capital today.
Three
But in Lao Siji's view, the first 3 are just the fuse, and there is only one essential reason:
In terms of valuation, the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index, which have fallen for three consecutive years, are very cheap in the world's major stock markets.
As I said in my fan base:
Cheap is the last word, as long as you buy cheap, foreign capital has to carry you a sedan chair.
However, I have not been optimistic about the sustainability of foreign capital inflows, because the long-term allocation of foreign capital is still an outflow trend.
Today's bull market standard-bearer brokerage rose 6%, is the bull market coming?
Anyway, in my opinion, domestic brokerages have no long-term investment value, because the ROE is not high and unstable, and the business model is very poor.
Today it is mainly the money that is buying, and they are not capable of pulling up a bull market.
Therefore, don't have a speculative mentality of making a fortune, otherwise Big A will teach you to be a man in minutes.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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