The game between China and the United States is related to the world pattern, and the relationship between the two countries is both cooperation and competition. However, the United States does not want to see China's peaceful rise, and the United States, which is deeply trapped in the Thucydides trap, has been desperately suppressing China, and has frequently intervened in domestic affairs on the Taiwan issue.
For the sake of the bigger picture, China has been holding back. An American expert issued a warning to the US military: According to today's trend, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is no longer what the US military remembered 30 years ago, and today's PLA has long been reborn and endured for 30 years, just waiting for a suitable opportunity.
Forbearance on the Taiwan issue
Speaking of this American expert, he is Graham Tillett Allison, as a famous American military expert, especially has a very in-depth understanding of Sino-US issues, as early as 2017 he predicted that between China and the United States, the future may not be able to avoid a war, after all, Taiwan and the United States cannot easily give up.
Graham Tillett Allison
Taking the 2.14 vicious ship collision incident as an example, the DPP authorities chose to keep silent immediately after the incident, and later chose to flatly deny the incident and shirk responsibility in various ways. When the two fishermen were killed, the mainland government naturally wants to seek justice and demand compensation and an apology from the Taiwan side.
Under these circumstances, the US Government suddenly jumped out to demand that the mainland exercise restraint, and this is obviously an issue of the mainland's own internal affairs, and it is obvious that the United States has bad intentions in jumping out at this time and wants to continue to interfere in the mainland's internal affairs. Not only that, but the United States, behind the back of the mainland government, once again sold arms to the Taiwan authorities after the incident, thus stoking the flames under the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Fortunately, there are still some sober people in the US government who warned the US government in a timely manner. This is not the first time that the United States has interfered in the mainland's internal affairs and interfered in the mainland's Taiwan issue. In 2022, Pelosi ignored the warnings of the Chinese government and insisted on visiting Taiwan.
In order to warn the United States and the DPP authorities, China held military exercises around Taiwan, and then formulated eight countermeasures against Taiwan, and Sino-US relations fell to a freezing point at this time.
At that time, Allison published an article on the relationship between China and the United States called "Taiwan, Thucydides and the War between the United States and China", so it seems that the first war between China and the United States may not be avoidable. But if both sides had realized this as soon as possible, this war would not have happened.
After all, the Taiwan issue has been around for a long time, and Sino-US relations are also up and down, and the mainland has always maintained restraint for the sake of the domestic and foreign situation, and the US policy toward China is also to cooperate and compete at the same time. Sino-US relations began to be tense until Biden took office, frequently challenging the mainland's bottom line on the Taiwan issue.
The DPP authorities are going further and further down the wrong path, and China is constantly adjusting its policy toward Taiwan, but the United States is the biggest obstacle to resolving the Taiwan issue. China has exercised restraint, but this balance will not always exist. Allison warned the U.S. government that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been holding back on the Taiwan issue for years, just waiting for it to break out.
Allison's remarks have a certain factual basis, as early as 1996, when the most serious crisis in the Taiwan Strait broke out, when China was determined to recover Taiwan, but later due to various reasons, the recovery did not continue. In addition, Allison made such a judgment on another important basis, which is the military strength of China and the United States today.
A contest of strength between the two countries
For a long time, the United States has relied on its powerful military power to dominate the world. As early as the Gulf War that broke out in 1990, the United States shocked the world with its strong military strength, and then in the Iraq War, the US military once again won the war in a very short time and with a very low mortality rate, once again shocking the world.
At this time, there is a big gap between the military strength of China and the United States, and it is difficult to catch up in a short period of time. However, the United States was mired in the war on terror, and then experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. debt crisis, and the hollowing out of manufacturing.
China, on the other hand, has continued to develop at a high rate of economic development, and economic development has led to the great development of science and technology and national defense strength. The development of China's navy and air force in the past 20 years has been a qualitative leap.
The Air Force fifth-generation aircraft J-20, the number is more than 200, and the United States F22 has been in service for many years, the production line has long been closed, with the continuous retirement of F22, the United States currently only has 187 F22, at the same time the Chinese Air Force, there are 400 J-16, more than 300 J-11B, these are heavy fighters, China is superior in this regard, we have about 1000, the United States has about 650.
In terms of the navy, China's three major aircraft carrier battle groups, and the fourth aircraft carrier is on the agenda immediately. The 05500000 ton drive China has 8 ships, 055 has 112 vertical hair units, offensive and defensive integration, with strong combat effectiveness, 055 the first ship Nanchang is in the ocean and the US aircraft carrier battle group for more than 20 days, 055 is undoubtedly an important auxiliary force of the mainland aircraft carrier battle group.
While many of China's navy and air force are cutting-edge weapons produced in the past decade or so, the US military, on the contrary, has its maritime cruisers that are still in service despite their age. What is even more serious is the continuous decline of the shipbuilding industry in the United States, and even the inability to supply the military needs of the US Navy in a timely manner, which is also one of the most important reasons for the sharp decline in the strength of the US Navy.
At a time when the United States' military strength can be said to be strong in the outside world, China is silently exerting its strength. In the 75 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's military strength has long surpassed that of Britain and France and other old powers, ranking among the top three in the world in terms of military strength, comparable to that of the United States and Russia, and its conventional military strength is the second in the world, and it has even surpassed the United States in many fields.
Moreover, according to the measurement of China's military strength, some American experts believe that China has already exceeded everyone's expectations, and even if a conflict breaks out between China and the United States in China's southeast coastal area, China is very likely to defeat the United States.
The Gulf War made the whole world realize that modern war was coming, and the mainland also began to modernize its armed forces at that time; it was only in the early years that the country had always focused on economic construction, but the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, NATO's bombing of the embassy of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and the plane collision incident in the South China Sea all let us know that we would not be able to do without powerful armaments. It is precisely because of this that China has been committed to developing its own military strength and enhancing its military strength over the years.
In 2012, the mainland's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was officially delivered to the navy, marking a new era for the mainland's naval power. Later, the mainland independently developed the Shandong and Fujian ships, which were enough to shock the whole world, and at the same time, it also took the most solid step for the mainland in safeguarding the mainland's maritime security.
The history of the mainland tells us an important truth, that is, if we are backward, we will be beaten. If we want not to be beaten, we must have sufficient military strength to defend our national defense and security. It was against that background that the two bombs and one satellite were born, and it was the result of countless Chinese scientific researchers who started from scratch step by step to the present, which can be described as extremely arduous.
Since the beginning of the new century, China's economic strength has developed tremendously, and there is enough economy to develop the national defense and military, and in addition to the accumulation of scientific research personnel, China has made a qualitative leap in the equipment of the navy, army, and air force in the past 20 years.
Although the military strength of the United States is still relatively strong at present, we have the confidence and ability to safeguard our national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Taiwan issue is one of China's core national interests, and the Taiwan issue is very complicated, and the reason why China has not taken action at present is because we are still waiting for a suitable opportunity.
An opportunity that China has been waiting for
The reason why the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has been holding back for 30 years, has not taken any action for a long time is that the mainland is waiting for a suitable opportunity to resolve the Taiwan issue that has plagued the mainland for many years at one time.
The first step is to wait for China to surpass the United States in strength, and many experts have been predicting in recent years that China is likely to surpass the United States in the near future and become the new superpower based on the current economic development of the two countries. After all, in just a few decades, it has been able to become a strong opponent of the United States, a superpower, which makes the United States fearful.
Judging from this development trend, surpassing the United States is not a fantasy. Although the mainland's comprehensive national strength now ranks second in the world, relatively speaking, it does not have an absolute advantage, and we have always pursued a peaceful rise, not to strive for hegemony, not to seek hegemony, but the United States, which is deeply trapped in the trap of Thucydides, does not think so. They insist on suppressing China, after the trade war and the technology blockade, China has broken through a number of science and technology blockades, and it is a different way to formulate the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, and the United States can only unite its allies to shout that it wants to fight a "new Cold War".
The inadequacy of the United States can be seen by many countries, and they are bound to be unwilling to blockade and suppress China in Taiwan and around China. The Taiwan card is the best card played by the United States, and the United States cannot easily give it up, which is why it continues to support Taiwan and give the DPP authorities confidence, while the outside world has been speculating about when the mainland will reunify Taiwan by force. With China's current strength, it may take less than a day to resolve the Taiwan issue, but the Taiwan issue is very complicated.
In addition, an opportunity that the mainland is still waiting for is a change in the diplomatic situation in its neighborhood. The diplomatic environment facing the mainland is not friendly at present, with India constantly harassing the mainland on the border in the southwestern Tibetan region, the Philippines and other countries in Southeast Asia also constantly provoking the mainland under the command of the United States, and Japan is on the side of the United States on the Diaoyu Islands, the East China Sea issue, and the issue left over from history. These so-called allies of the United States have the potential to create friction around China.
If the mainland wants to thoroughly resolve the Taiwan issue, it must first resolve the surrounding issues, and only in this way can the mainland devote itself wholeheartedly to the Taiwan issue. We must consider the resolution of the Taiwan issue, including possible intervention by the United States and neighboring countries, and be fully prepared.
Therefore, in recent years, the mainland has also been expanding its influence in the surrounding areas, and through the "Belt and Road" policy, it has driven the economic development of many countries along the surrounding routes. Moreover, in recent years, the mainland has also been actively engaged in friendly trade with Southeast Asia and neighboring countries, giving full play to its demeanor as a great power and expanding its influence in the international community.
If this trend continues, relations between the mainland and its neighboring countries will become closer and closer, and the diplomatic situation in its neighboring countries will change completely, thus laying the foundation for us to thoroughly resolve the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan is a part of China's territory, and this is a fact recognized by the international community, and the Taiwan issue is China's own internal affair, but the United States has repeatedly imposed interference and has touched the mainland's bottom line, and the current international situation is very good for the mainland, and I believe that in the near future, the mainland will certainly take back Taiwan and fulfill the long-cherished wish of the people on both sides of the strait.
Resources:
Graham Allison: China and the United States should remain calm and restrained in order to overcome the "Thucydides Trap".
Historical review: During the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, the missile target area was only about 40 nautical miles away from the main island of Taiwan