【Disk Analysis】
External markets have recently fluctuated sharply by whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and U.S. data released on Thursday has hit hopes of a soft landing: GDP in the first quarter rose 1.6% annualized quarter-on-quarter, the lowest in nearly two years, less than half of the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, and slower than the market expectation of 2.5%, and personal spending, the engine of economic growth, rose 2.5% in the first quarter, also at a slower pace than expected. The data shows that economic growth is unexpectedly weak, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut time has been postponed to December again.
Riding the Bull and Watching the Bear found that the model capability will still iterate rapidly in 2024, and the mobile AI computing power bidding verifies the demand for AI computing power, especially the demand for domestic AI computing power. From the perspective of computing power, software tool chain, inter-chip and networking communication, Huawei is at a high level of domestic chips, catching up with NVIDIA. Behind the wave of artificial intelligence industry and the drive of artificial intelligence strategic competition between major countries, superimposed by the United States' control over the export of high-end AI chips to China, the mainland's domestic computing power industry chain is expected to usher in a double click under the logic of prosperity improvement and share grabbing.
By 2027, the full-stack independent and controllable software and hardware products of intelligent computing infrastructure will be realized, and the ability to build a 100% independent and controllable intelligent computing center will be realized. Low-altitude economic concept stocks rose again, Zongshen Power daily limit, Zhongheng Design 8 boards, Tibet tourism 3 boards, Chongqing low-altitude flight consumption map will be officially released. During the event, 10 million yuan of consumption vouchers will also be distributed for the public to experience the fun of low-altitude flight. The new energy vehicle market still continued the trend in March, the penetration rate of new energy remained high in the first three weeks, and the new energy retail sales are expected to reach about 720,000 units this month, maintaining the same market size as last month, with a penetration rate of 45%.
CPO concept stocks fluctuated and strengthened, Xin Yisheng rose more than 9% to a record high, Yuanjie Technology, Zhongji Innolight and other shares rose more than 5%, Xin Yisheng achieved revenue of 1.113 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 85.41% year-on-year, a month-on-month increase of 10.12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 325 million yuan, and Nvidia's U.S. stock price rose more than 3% yesterday. In addition, after the "innovative drug" was written into the government work report of the State Council for the first time in March this year, the government's specific support policies for innovative drugs are gradually being introduced. The concept of copper high-speed connectors has been repeatedly active, Shenyu shares 20CM daily limit, Wall nuclear materials anti-package daily limit, electronic foundry manufacturer Quanta said that the server equipped with NVIDIA GB200 is expected to be mass-produced in September, GB200 for the first time to use high-speed copper cable scheme, the current value of a single NVL72 copper cable is about 500,000.
The concept of quantum communication has moved up, many stocks such as Science and Technology Innovation and Shenzhou Information have risen by nearly 20%, and the Institute of Quantum Information and Quantum Technology Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has delivered a 504-bit superconducting quantum computing chip "Xiaohong" to Guodun Quantum, which is used in the thousand-bit measurement and control system independently developed by Guodun Quantum. In the first quarter of 2024, the domestic raw gold output in mainland China was 85.959 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, and the gold consumption was 308.905 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%. TSMC's system-level wafer technology will usher in a major breakthrough in the integration of SoICs, HBMs and other components to create a wafer-level system with computing power comparable to that of a data center server rack, or even an entire server.
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GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% intraday on Friday, showing a clear rebound trend, and it was close to 3,100 points before the holiday, which also shows that the market is likely to go higher. Next week, we can pay attention to whether the bears will fight back after breaking through 3100 points, and if they stand firm before the holiday, we can still look forward to it in early May. If 3100 points continue to rise,
Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3050 points.
The ChiNext index rose more than 3% on Friday, and there was a general rise, although most stocks did not outperform the index, but some of the targets showed a blowout. The ChiNext index did not make up for the gap back to 1800 points, but also out of a long white line, which is indeed uncommon, it depends on whether there is a good appearance on the weekend, after all, there has not been a long time since the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, no wind and no waves! Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1820 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
As of April 25, northbound funds have bought 49.519 billion yuan this year, exceeding the net purchase of 43.704 billion yuan last year. At a time when overseas markets are volatile, the A-share market deserves the attention of global asset allocators. Since the beginning of this year, the net purchase of northbound funds has exceeded 49 billion yuan, exceeding the total net purchase of last year. At present, global funds are beginning to look for more cost-effective assets, and A-shares with multiple advantages are undoubtedly a good choice.
Concepts such as quantum technology, communication equipment, and securities in the theme sector are the main sectors involved in the net inflow of funds, while concepts such as banks, transportation facilities, and coal are sectors with relatively large net outflows. Riding a bull and a bear found that the gap in intelligent computing construction in 2023-2024 is 23EFlops. In 2025, the national computing power target will exceed 300EFlops, the proportion of intelligent computing will reach 35%, and the intelligent computing power target will be 105EFlops. Subject to security considerations, the localization of computing power deployment is on the agenda, and policy customers are expected to achieve 100% domestic AI chips. The rapid development of artificial intelligence has brought about a strong demand for computing power, which has increased the volume and price of chip inductors for AI servers and GPUs.
Behind the boom in computing power demand is the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry, and the Scaling Law of large models will continue to take effect, which will drive the demand for computing power to continue to increase, and servers as computing power carriers will benefit at the same time. Since the beginning of this year, the central state-owned enterprises represented by operators are accelerating the construction of infrastructure such as computing power, and China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom have successively issued announcements on the procurement of intelligent computing servers.
This year's government work report proposes to build digital infrastructure moderately ahead of schedule and accelerate the formation of a national integrated computing power system. By building a national integrated computing network, we can integrate and optimize computing resources across the country, thereby reducing the cost and threshold of computing power, so as to better meet the computing power needs of various fields and help the development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence in the mainland.
With the acceleration of the iteration of domestic AI large models, the core support behind it is AI computing power, with the opening of the computing power competition, the demand for AI server-related is strong, and with the issuance of overseas chip bans and information innovation security requirements, the demand for domestic computing power construction is full, and the orders for domestic AI servers have high certainty. With the pull of the two wings of digital economy and artificial intelligence, the communication industry will further improve the information and computing infrastructure in the era of digital economy to ensure the reasonable construction of digital foundation and highly reliable transmission of information.