Gold: Overnight gold performance was tepid, the form maintained shock adjustment, overnight economic data caught the market off guard, inflation turned upward, economic growth slowed down, and the probability of interest rate cuts decreased during the year.
U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2023 and 0.9% lower than the consensus of 2.5%, compared to 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, but the Commerce Department believes that a broader measure of underlying demand is close to 3%, which is acceptable compared to inflation.
Inflation in the first quarter was stronger than expected, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 3.7% and 2.9% year-on-year, and inflation data for January and February have also been revised upward, showing clear signs of a turning point in inflation. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once this year at its December meeting.
Technicals: Gold closed the doji on a daily basis, and the market performance was more hesitant. The probability of the formation of a downward pattern in the 4-hour period is high, and the price fails to recover the long-term moving average, and the short-term downward pressure is high. In the short term, you can pay attention to the pressure on the upper $2345 line.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
Crude oil: overnight oil prices first fell and then rose, the short-term pattern is good, there is a possibility of continuous upward attack, and there are positive signals in multiple cycles. The excellent performance of crude oil export data from major oil producers may indicate that the current demand for crude oil is strong.
Saudi crude oil production reached 9.01 million b/d in February, a seven-month high, and Saudi crude oil production increased by 55,000 b/d, or 0.61%, compared to the previous month, according to the latest data from the United Petroleum Database. Crude oil exports rose to 6.32 million b/d, up 0.32% month-on-month, and exports hit a new high in nearly three months.
The current OPEC+ production cut action will continue until the end of June, and the support effect of the production cut action on oil prices has also appeared, and the member countries have also benefited a lot from it, and the production cut agreement may be continued, and the production cut has affected the market's expectations for crude oil supply and demand, and the market is betting on the momentum of rising oil prices.
Technical: Crude oil daily line closed doji, most likely just an adjustment of the excessive deviation rate in the early stage. The 4-hour period price stands on the long-term moving average system, and there is a possibility of forming an upward relay pattern, and the probability of continuing to rise during the day is very high, and the short-term intraday can focus on the support of the line below $83.40.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the think tank of the third-party cooperation platform and are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.