The status quo of fuel vehicles: less than 200,000 has been lost, how long can less than 500,000 last?

Luka cars

2024-04-26 16:36Posted in Beijing Automotive Creators

At the 2024 Beijing Auto Show, according to official statistics, a total of 117 new cars made their world premieres. Among the nearly 1,000 models exhibited, 278 were new energy models, an increase of 70% compared with the last Beijing Auto Show.

In addition, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 80% of the first new cars at the auto show, and nearly 20 new energy brands participated in the exhibition for the first time.

Different from previous auto shows, the biggest attraction of this year's Beijing Auto Show is not only the car. Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360 Company, known as the "leader of the red coat", announced the news of changing cars before the auto show, making him the traffic leader of the whole audience on the first day of the opening of the auto show. Lei Jun, another "traffic king", is crowded everywhere he goes. However, the clear goal of both is the new energy products of major car companies.

It is not difficult to see that although new energy models account for less than one-third of all exhibited models, they are more than three times as popular as fuel vehicles.

In the market below 200,000 level, fuel vehicles have been lost?

Before the start of the Beijing Auto Show, in the first half of April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, in response to Wang Chuanfu's prediction at the electric vehicle 100 meeting, but much earlier than Wang Chuanfu's prediction.

It is not difficult to see that in terms of the number of products, fuel vehicles still account for seventy percent. Among the popular models, models that have been launched or are expected to be sold within 200,000 units after launch, such as the Magotan, Haval H6, Chevrolet Explorer Plus, Mazda EZ-6, Qin L, iCAR X25, and Tiguan L, are attracting attention. The Magotan, H6 and Tiguan L continue to deepen the development of gasoline vehicles, including the American Explorer Plus and the Japanese "niche" brand Mazda EZ-6, all of which have embraced electrification.

Volkswagen's two fuel models can also receive high attention to the reason, the current Magotan price fell to less than 150,000, the price of the new car starts at 186,900, with the current model of nearly 40,000 yuan of market terminal discounts, the new listed Magotan in the price war driven, should continue to increase the discount, within 150,000 will be the regular operation thereafter. The Tiguan L, the biggest attraction is the newly released Tiguan L PRO model, equipped with the intelligent driving function of the fuel vehicle, will it become the savior of the fuel vehicle, one is to see if the price will rise sharply after the intelligent driving, the second is the performance of the intelligent driving, whether the effect can catch up with the same level of new energy vehicles. If the price is considerable, and the intelligent driving effect reaches the mainstream level, the Tiguan L PRO has the potential to help fuel vehicles turn red.

However, the emergence of Qin L will continue to expand the market discourse power of plug-in hybrid models, and this product positioned between Qin PLUS and Han DM-i will trigger a new round of changes in the car market within 200,000.

At present, the models on sale on the market, models below 200,000 account for two-thirds, and those that stabilize the basic market for oil vehicles can be divided into three parts. The first is a car with a starting price of less than 100,000 yuan, including Sylphy, Lavida, Suteng, etc., and the second is a car with a starting price of less than 200,000 yuan, including Camry, Passat, Magotan and so on. In terms of SUVs, mainstream Chinese brand fuel models, including Changan CS75 PLUS and Haval H6, can also ensure continuous sales output.

After the Beijing Auto Show, the pattern of models below 200,000, Qin L will start a new round of price war, and more importantly, it is not only the market that is higher than it, but also the lower price than it, which will also be affected by it.

That is to say, the current sales of B-class cars, Sylphy, Lavida prices down to 60,000 level, may have a small impact, but the sale of nearly 100,000 Suteng, including Camry, Passat and the newly listed Magotan, some users may turn to Qin L, thus forcing the mainstream B-class cars to continue to reduce prices.

At the pace of BYD, Qin L's starting price of 120,000 will never be the end of its price this year, therefore, Qin L will lead a round of 100,000-level plug-in hybrid models to make profits, which will affect the entire car market below 200,000.

In the 200,000 to 500,000 car market, fuel vehicles are still relatively stable

The mid-class car market has started a big brawl. The blockbuster models at the Beijing Auto Show are concentrated in the Wenjie M5, Ideal L6, Buick GL8 New Energy, ZEEKR MIX, Denza Z9, Deep Blue G318 and other models.

It is not difficult to see that this year's mid-range and high-end models have a relatively low sense of presence in fuel vehicles. Even the Buick GL8, watching the Denza D9 of its friends climb steadily, can't wait to change to a plug-in hybrid, not to mention the models in the price range of more than 200,000 and less than 500,000, how much attention is paid to new energy vehicles.

Judging from the sales volume in the past year, all the models in the price range of 200,000 to 500,000 yuan, only Tesla's two models, the ideal L series, the M7 and the BYD Han family can shake the status of fuel vehicles. In other words, three-quarters of the top 20 single models in terms of sales are still fuel vehicles.

This figure is higher than the market penetration rate of less than 70% of fuel vehicles in 2023, and fuel vehicles are still the mainstream in the mid-range and high-end markets.

But after the Beijing Auto Show, there are variables. The above-mentioned models have attracted wide attention, Wenjie M5 and Ideal L6 are mainly 250,000 to 300,000, Wenjie M5 has a large fixed number of more than 4,000 vehicles on the first day of release, and Ideal L6 has handed over the data of more than 10,000 in 72 hours, both cars have the potential to explode, and have the potential to lead the 200,000 to 300,000 SUV market, and this level of SUV models, the sales proportion is relatively large.

That is to say, the price span of Wenjie and ideal subdivision level models is just between 200,000 and 500,000, and the right to speak for SUVs in this market is no longer a fuel vehicle. At present, Mercedes-Benz GLC, Audi Q5L and BMW X3 are still strong, but the competitiveness of other models is declining rapidly.

In the car market in this price range, several medium and large pure electric cars are aimed at the 200,000 to 300,000 level market, and none of them have the ability to lead a price range model collective price adjustment like Qin L, so at present, the 200,000-level car market, fuel vehicles still have strong new energy competitors, more than 300,000 yuan, fuel cars are still in a state of fewer opponents, and they are not greatly affected.

More than 500,000 are still the world of fuel vehicles

At the Beijing Auto Show, Chinese brand models that are expected to be sold, or have already sold, more than 500,000 yuan, hit a new high. Including the release of revolutionary chassis technology Yangwang U7, off-road version of Yangwang U8, Formula Leopard Leopard Leopard 8, Xiangjie S9 and other new cars, as well as the newly released Dongfeng Mengshi M-Hunter priced at 3.68 million yuan on April 26.

Since its launch, the U8 has sold more than 5,000 units, and at present, the delivery volume of the M9 has continued to increase, and it is reported that in the past two months, the sales volume of the M9 may exceed 10,000 in a single month. The results point to the fact that China's more than 500,000 luxury new energy vehicles have the ability to challenge the traditional fuel vehicle market.

As a result, there are more than 500,000 people who have the opportunity to challenge the status of fuel vehicles, and only ask the world M9, Zeekrypton 009 and Ideal MEGA. Two of them are MPV models, reflecting that in the sedan and SUV markets, gasoline vehicles are still dominant.

The reason is that there are not many new energy products that can challenge the price of more than 500,000 yuan. Combined with the Beijing Auto Show, the Xiangjie S9 is expected to be priced at 500,000 units, and there is a chance to continue the popularity of the M9, which can be regarded as a popular model that can challenge the 500,000-level fuel vehicles. The rest,BYD several models,If you look up to the U7 pricing benchmark 78S,It may not cause greater waves in the short term,If the benchmark 56E,And the price can be set within 500,000,The ability to compete with the enjoyment of the worldS9。

Why are there not many new energy products that challenge 500,000-level fuel vehicles, after all, if a new energy model wants to be positioned at 500,000 or more expensive, it either has a very special consumer group that looks up to U8, or it takes a niche route like Ideal MEGA and Extreme Krypton 009. Conventional new energy vehicles, from the perspective of new energy technology, are almost equivalent to the top level of the current subdivision technology in the new energy field are equipped on the car, in order to empower a 500,000-level new energy model.

In this way, it is even more difficult to build million-level new energy products. At present, the new energy products above the million level, which can still be strong, only look up to the U8, and the rest have to choose fuel products.

Epilogue:

In summary, the current situation of fuel vehicles is that below 200,000 is basically lost, more than 200,000, to 500,000, new energy models are more challenging to fuel vehicles, and there is a trend of gradually devouring the fuel vehicle market, it depends on the follow-up price range of new energy vehicles on the market speed. More than 500,000 are still dominated by fuel vehicles, and in the short term, it is more difficult for new energy to challenge fuel vehicles.

One detail, look up to the U7's latest display of Yunnan-Z chassis technology, or become the terminator of mid-to-high-end fuel vehicles. If the cost can be reduced in the future, there is also the possibility of a collapse of more than 500,000 fuel vehicles. In other words. In the future, more than 500,000 fuel vehicles may only provide brand value, and from a technical point of view, fuel vehicles will be comprehensively surpassed.

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Personal opinion, for reference only