A-shares exploded, foreign investors bought 22.4 billion yuan to a new high, and Hong Kong stock technology rose by more than 13% in a single week

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2024-04-26 17:04Posted on the official account of Guangdong Kancai

Most people should not have expected that A-shares actually launched an offensive before May Day, and it can only be said that people are not as good as the sky, and the plan cannot withstand the changes, but there are also signs, because Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply for three days, counting today's Hang Seng Technology rose by more than 13% in a single week, A shares and Hong Kong stocks have the same root, Hong Kong stocks have risen so much, how can A shares not rise.

There are three major anomalies in A-shares today:

First, A-shares will generally shrink before the long holiday, funds will be cautious, will be cashed, and tonight the United States will announce the core PCE in March, last night the yield of the US 10 bonds exceeded 4.7%, it stands to reason that it is prudent to be cautious, but today A shares, Hong Kong stocks are still rising sharply, the volume can exceed trillions, it can only be said that this rise can not be stopped.

Second, today's sharp rise in A-shares is mainly driven by foreign capital, with northbound funds buying more than 10 billion yuan in early trading alone, and a net purchase of 22.4 billion yuan throughout the day, setting a new high since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Third, the real estate and securities sectors have skyrocketed, but the banking sector has plummeted, and the banking sector has risen and real estate may not follow, but the real estate sector has skyrocketed, and the banks will not fall sharply.

The answers to these anomalies can be found in the following blockbuster news:

U.S. 10 bond yields rose above 4.7%

Last night, the United States announced a year-on-year GDP growth of 1.6% in the first quarter, significantly lower than the market expectation of 2.4%, and personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter increased by 2.5% year-on-year, which was also significantly lower than the market expectation of 3%, but core PCE inflation increased by 3.7% in the first quarter, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.4%.

In other words, the U.S. economy is not as strong as expected, but inflation is exceeding market expectations, which smacks of stagflation. Continue to raise interest rates, the U.S. economy may recession, don't raise interest rates, inflation can't come down, last night the U.S. 10 bond yield once rose above 4.7%, U.S. stocks opened low and dived, although then rebounded slightly, but the Dow still fell nearly 1%.

However, we don't think the U.S. economy is stagflationary. First of all, U.S. inflation has come down, but the Fed's premature dovish attitude last year led to a sharp drop in U.S. 10 bond yields, coupled with the U.S. manufacturing replenishment and the real estate industry's rebound from the downward interest rate, as well as the wealth effect brought about by the strength of U.S. stocks in the first quarter, which made the U.S. economy stronger in the short term. However, at present, the yield of US 10 bonds once rose above 4.7%, and the rise in market interest rates will continue to suppress the US economy, and the peak and fall of US stocks will have an impact on residents' wealth, and it is expected that the US will weaken again, and inflation will also fall.

AI Storm

Last year, OpenAI's ChatGPT4 stimulated the market's enthusiasm for AI, Google, Microsoft, Tesla and other U.S. stock giants and domestic giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance began to fight against computing power.

But more than a year has passed, AI has not appeared in a particularly big popular application, ChatGPT traffic is declining, and although Sora once set off a boom, there is no follow-up. Therefore, the market has been wondering whether the giants will continue to make capital expenditures if AI can no longer form a closed business loop, and if the story cannot be told, the AI bubble will burst.

However, last night's results and guidance from Microsoft and Google dispelled market concerns. In Microsoft's cloud business, revenue from server products and cloud services grew 24%, and revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew 31%, beating expectations, with AI services contributing 7% growth (up from 6% in the previous quarter). More than 65% of Fortune 500 companies use Azure OpenAI, #AI帮助Azure云获得份额. In the Productivity Process business, E5 continued to drive ARPU growth, with 365 subscriptions up 14%. Nearly 60% of Fortune 500 companies use the Copilot AI program, and the number of downloads of the Copilot app on mobile has skyrocketed. AI has also had a significant impact on LinkedIn and advertising platforms.

AI brings differentiated competition to Google Cloud's business (providing more than 130 models including owned/open source/third-party models), and there is now a clear path for AI monetization in advertising/cloud/subscription.

In terms of capital expenditures, Google/Microsoft's quarterly Capex increased significantly quarter-on-quarter. Google expects Capex growth of at least 49% year-on-year in '24, exceeding expectations, while Microsoft's Capex is +65% year-on-year and +13% quarter-on-quarter in the current quarter, and it is expected to grow significantly quarter-on-quarter in the next quarter, and the agency judges that Microsoft Capex will grow by more than 50% in 2024. Whether Capex, the four major cloud providers, can support AI spending is no longer in question.

Shares of Google's parent company Alphabet surged 11.4% in premarket trading, hitting a record high, and its total market capitalization rose by $220 billion. Microsoft's U.S. stock rose more than 5% after hours.

Last night, Beijing released the "Beijing Computing Power Infrastructure Construction Implementation Plan (2024-2027)", proposing to support enterprises that purchase independent and controllable GPU chips to carry out intelligent computing services according to a certain proportion of the investment.

Stimulated by related news, today's A-share AI concept sector soared, Zhongji Innolight rose by more than 12%, and Industrial Fortune Union rose by the limit.

The securities sector skyrocketed

According to the Financial Associated Press, the State Council issued a report on the research and handling of the deliberation opinions of the special report on the management of state-owned assets of financial enterprises and the rectification and accountability. According to the report, efforts are being concentrated on building a "national team" in the financial industry. Research and draft an action plan to strengthen the management of state-owned financial capital, promote large state-owned financial enterprises to benchmark with world-class financial enterprises, highlight their main business, do fine and professional, and continuously enhance their competitiveness and international influence. Research and formulate guidance on promoting the high-quality development of the insurance industry, and promote the standardized development of non-bank financial institutions. Promote leading securities companies to become stronger and better, and support the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to build world-class exchanges.

Guolian Securities announced that the company is planning to acquire the control of Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Minsheng Securities") and raise matching funds by issuing A shares.

Stimulated by relevant news, today's bull market flag bearer securities sector set off a tide of daily limits, Guosheng Financial Holdings, Pacific, Zheshang Securities, Founder Securities, CICC and other shares of the daily limit.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.34%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.12%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.61%. The turnover of the two cities increased sharply to 1.08 trillion, and nearly 4,000 stocks rose.

The explosion of the real estate sector at midday may be mainly in the game policy, and there will be a blockbuster meeting at the end of the month, either this week or next week.

In the end, it is still a strong call for Hong Kong stocks, and southbound funds are bought with such a high intensity, and institutional funds are not fools. Now the global stock market still has A-shares, Hong Kong stocks are still at a low level, and Hong Kong stocks from the valuation, chips out of the perspective is better than A-shares, this week Hong Kong stocks continue to soar mainly because of the inflow of foreign capital, many institutional funds began to withdraw from the Japanese stocks, Indian stock markets to buy Chinese assets. From a fundamental point of view, the domestic economy has shown resilience in recent years under the drag of real estate, UBS, which was the first bearish on Evergrande, has begun to be bullish on real estate, and what "deflationary theory" and "Japaneseization" will be falsified, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will usher in Davis's double-click.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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