The volume of A-shares rose sharply, and northbound funds bought 22.4 billion, a new high since the opening of the Cross-border Connect!

National Business Daily

2024-04-26 15:47Posted on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Zhao Yun Every editor: Peng Shuiping

On April 26, the market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, opening higher and moving higher, with the ChiNext index leading the rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new closing high for the year. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.15%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.34%.

In terms of sectors, securities, quantum technology, computing power, CPO and other sectors were among the top gainers, while banks, small household appliances, logistics, coal and other sectors were among the top decliners.

The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 1,086.4 billion, an increase of 312.1 billion from the previous trading day, and the turnover returned to one trillion.

Northbound funds bought a net of 22.449 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 11.323 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 11.126 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

I believe that most people have already seen the signs in the morning - today's A-share is a script for the upward movement.

There are several indicators that indicate high market sentiment, such as:

1) Under the influence of the pre-holiday effect, the amount of energy that has shrunk for many days this week has finally returned.

The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan for a long time, and almost reached 1.1 trillion yuan.

2) Northbound funds have been greatly "swept up". The net purchase was 13.5 billion yuan in the first half of the day, and it soared to 22.449 billion yuan throughout the day.

Wind data shows that this data has set a new high since the opening of the Cross-border Connect, far exceeding the previous record for the year.

Recently, there have been frequent reports of foreign investors being bullish on Chinese assets, which to a certain extent confirms the attitude of northbound funds.

According to reports, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. Subsequently, Morgan Stanley announced that it would raise China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.6 percentage points. Da Mo said that China's exports were strong in the first quarter, the manufacturing industry performed well, and China's economy is expected to achieve strong growth throughout the year. Goldman Sachs and other international investment banks have pushed the expected increase in China's stock market to about 40%.

3) From the perspective of sectors, popular sectors such as AI, brokerages, chips, low-altitude economy, CRO, and automobiles are all rising. The only thing that makes people feel a little "fly in the ointment" is that the banking sector led the decline, which inhibited the strength of the Shanghai Composite Index to hit the annual line and 3,100 points.

However, another sector has clearly moved, temporarily "replaceing" bank stocks and propping up the index, that is, the securities sector.

In the afternoon, the rally of brokerage stocks expanded, and Guosheng Financial Holdings, Zheshang Securities, Founder Securities, Capital Securities, CICC, and Pacific successively rose to the limit.

The performance of brokerage stocks will be analyzed below, and here is a question to be raised:

Why did the funding choose to get started today?

This may be the so-called "prejudge your prejudgment" logic.

We know that after this weekend, there will be two trading days in April, Monday and Tuesday, and then there will be five "long holidays".

So the advantage of taking the lead today is that the news and emotions fermented over the weekend are expected to make another wave next Monday.

Some readers may ask, why does the capital think that the winning rate of today's shot is greater?

The author believes that the confidence of the market today comes from two aspects.

First, A-shares opened low and went high as a whole in the case of shrinking volume this week, and the risk of decline is getting smaller and smaller.

As shown in the chart below, throughout April, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated repeatedly in the range of 3000~3100 points. In fact, the turmoil has been going on since the beginning of March.

Some swing funds will think that when the index falls to 3,000 points, it will be "very stable" to buy the bottom, and sell when it is close to 3,100 points, and there is a high probability that it can be picked up at a low level.

In the words of one big V: "This range is too stable, and it takes an opportunity to break it." ”

This opportunity is the second point to be said, Hong Kong stocks ushered in six consecutive rises.

The biggest benefit of the policy is undoubtedly the five cooperation measures in Hong Kong issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) last Friday (April 19), including the relaxation of the scope of ETF products, the inclusion of REITs, the optimization of mutual recognition of funds, and the smooth listing and financing channels.

On the other hand, Chen Guo of China Securities Construction Investment believes that the core reason for the recent rise in Hong Kong stocks is the improvement of the capital side. In the second half of last year, the biggest suppression of Hong Kong stocks was the systematic outflow of foreign capital to Japan, and the recent focus of foreign investment allocation in the Asia-Pacific region has shifted from Japan to Hong Kong stocks, and the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks has been greatly improved. In terms of domestic investment, driven by favorable policies and high dividends, southbound funds have increased sharply recently, further consolidating the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks.

"We believe that the best long window for Hong Kong stocks this year has arrived. ”

In short, if Hong Kong stocks can maintain continuous upward movement, it is also a good thing for A-shares.

Finally, let's take a look at the major sectors that deserve attention today.

1) Securities

There are two major positive news on the news.

First, the restructuring and integration of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities ushered in new progress last night. Guolian Securities, which announced that it had been suspended in A-shares since Friday, rose more than 20% in H-shares this morning.

Restructuring and integration is the main hype direction of the brokerage sector in the near future. In addition to Guolian Securities, recently, a number of small and medium-sized brokerages have also released news of equity changes, strengthening the market's expectations for brokerage mergers and acquisitions.

Second, the State Council issued a report last night saying that it will build a "national team" in the financial industry and promote the head securities companies to become stronger and better.

The report also pointed out that the proportion of state-owned financial capital in banking, insurance, securities, and other industries should be adjusted in a timely and reasonable manner, so it may have a certain impact on the entire large financial sector.

Today's adjustment of the banking sector may also be that the market is still in the process of digesting the policy.

2) AI that bounces continuously

Copper high-speed connection, computing power leasing, CPO and other sectors were among the top gainers.

According to media analysis, the AI sector has recently had the following catalysts:

First, on April 25, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology and the Beijing Municipal Communications Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Construction of Computing Power Infrastructure in Beijing (2024-2027)".

Second, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Tianhe computing network platform was officially released a few days ago.

Third, overseas technology giants have raised AI capital expenditures, and U.S. technology stocks also performed well last night.

Meta raised its capex guidance for this year in its Q1 earnings report, saying it had significantly raised its capex forecast for this year from $30 billion to $37 billion to $35 billion to $40 billion as it accelerated infrastructure investment to support its AI roadmap. Meta also expects capital spending to continue to increase next year.

Google's capital expenditures in the first quarter were $12 billion, mainly for investments in servers and data centers. Company executives said they expect capital expenditures to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters, and the company is confident in its AI investment.

Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said the company's capital expenditure in the most recent quarter was $14 billion and is expected to continue to increase "substantially".

Fourth, China Mobile recently launched the procurement of new intelligent computing centers from 2024 to 2025.

3) Real estate

John Lam, chief of UBS Properties, who downgraded Evergrande to sell in January 2021, has recently turned bullish on Chinese property developers.

The reasons are: government policy strength, China's leverage is lower than the scenario of the United States and Japan, supply is reduced, supply and demand may reverse next year. He predicts that in 2025, real estate supply and demand will reach historical averages, and the stocks of real estate companies with heavy land reserves in 21 major cities will rise.

In terms of domestic institutions, Caixin Securities believes that the current real estate market-related policies are continuing to exert force, and there is still room for further increase in the future. Judging from the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, the "three major projects" will be the key tasks of this year, and the focus can be on the "Zhongzitou" infrastructure central enterprises; with the promotion of stabilizing demand and ensuring the delivery of buildings, the property market sales are expected to show marginal improvement, and large state-owned real estate enterprises with relatively stable fundamentals can be concerned; in the context of the continuous promotion of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, some of the leading private enterprises that have been included in the "white list" of real estate financing are expected to usher in credit repair.

National Business Daily

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