Since the sudden plunge of corn in Henan, the corn market has been completely chaotic.
Shandong and Northeast China have also started to fall mode, although it is not uncommon for Shandong and Northeast China to fall together, but this time it is indeed a little different.
For example, Shandong, at present, Shandong corn can be said to have completely fallen into the pit.
Why?
The laws of the market are all out of order.
In the past, the Shandong market was famous for "watching the car and getting off the dish", the car price was reduced more, and the car was less expensive, although there were some "snobbishness", but there were rules to follow.
But now it has changed, and now there are more cars and the price is lowered, and the price of fewer cars is also lowered.
For example, after the volume continued to break 1,000, it fell back in the past two days, and the number of trucks in front of the deep processing door fell from more than 1,000 to more than 800, and then fell to more than 600, but at a glance at the market, it is still green, and the "Chinese word" enterprises are still taking the lead in lowering prices, how can this be good?
As for the Northeast, although it did not fall as hard as Shandong, it also began to shake and weaken under the impact of Shandong.
At present, the average price of corn in Shandong has fallen below 2,300 yuan/ton, and it continues to be inverted with the Northeast.
However, what the market is worried about this time is not the problem of price reduction, because although corn has fallen into this bearish shape, everyone does not expect corn to fall again.
For example, although Shandong corn has been falling endlessly, and fell below 2,300 yuan / ton, the market generally believes that it is not possible to cross the step downward, can corn really fall back to 1 yuan or even below 1 yuan?
As for the Northeast, there has been an increase in reserves in the stable field, and the third round of increased reserves has just opened, and the support is still relatively obvious.
Taking a step back, isn't the purpose of increasing reserves for so long just to hold the bottom of corn? Can we still watch it fall short?
So I'm not too worried about the fall of corn, but what I'm really worried about is when the corn will come out after it falls into the pit?
At present, it is far away.
It's the end of April now, and it's about to enter May, and the corn in May is undoubtedly under pressure.
First, the wheat harvest period entered in May, although the current price difference between wheat and corn is large, but the market wait-and-see sentiment has increased.
In May, wheat began to be harvested from south to north, and some trading entities switched to wheat, and there was a demand for liquidation;
On the other hand, although the price difference between the two is large, feed companies are not in a hurry, especially when the price is in a downward trend, the wait-and-see mood is stronger.
Second, the northeast of Shandong continues to be upside down, and it is unknown when this situation will end.
Although it is said that the northeast market in Shandong is in its own position, since the price is inverted, the northeast corn export is not smooth, and it has been suffocated.
If the corn wants to be untied, it must be re-priced, so the question is, is the Northeast corn falling, or Shandong corn rising?
At present, no one can move, which means that this upside-down situation cannot be stopped for a while.
Therefore, even if corn no longer falls, but it does not rise, for enterprises, they can continue to wait and see and maintain rigid inventory, but it will be difficult for trade subjects.
To collect or not to collect, to save or not to save, to save one more day to cost.
Third, referring to last year's market, corn not only did not rise in May last year, but fell to the low point of the year.
There are many similarities between this year's corn and wheat market and last year's market, so it cannot be ruled out that some stages will repeat the mistakes of last year.
In May, corn is not much good, except for the bottom of the surplus grain, there is a part of the bottoming effect, the demand side is not much, so the corn in May is still stormy.
Although Henan corn has risen again in the past two days, releasing some positive signals, the new agricultural concept believes that this is at most a bottoming rather than a boost.
On the one hand, after the corn overfall, especially after approaching the edge of 1.1 yuan/catty, the market resistance is strong; on the other hand, many grain sources have run away, which has also reduced a certain pressure, and the storage has also stabilized the market sentiment.
However, the boost is not visible, the supply and demand of corn have not changed significantly, and market confidence is still insufficient, so the room for upward movement is limited.
May corn may be another "protracted war".
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!