The 21st century is the century of the Pacific Ocean, and the competition at sea will become increasingly fierce, from the three-legged stand to the two-power hegemony, the world's shipbuilding industry will enter a cycle in which China and South Korea take turns to take the first place.
The wind and waves above the ocean are urgent, and whoever can drive steadily can drive far.
The wind rises in Ulsan
In the first quarter, the scale of the mainland's trade in goods exceeded 10 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history.
In the manufacturing industry, the export momentum of mechanical and electrical products was good, with an export value of 3.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8%, accounting for 59.2% of the total export value.
Among them, the export of high value-added products such as automobiles and ships performed well, with the export value of ships increasing by 113.1% year-on-year, and large ships on terminals across China are queuing up for delivery.
At the same time, South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy also released foreign trade data, and in the first quarter of 2024, South Korean shipbuilders contracted ship orders of 13.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.4% year-on-year, beating China, with an order value of 12.6 billion US dollars.
After three years, the Korean shipbuilding industry once again topped the world in terms of single-quarter orders.
From the word "defeat" in South Korean media reports, it can be seen how much South Korea values the result of regaining the world's first place in the shipbuilding industry.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, South Korea's shipbuilding industry won $7.2 billion in orders, narrowly beating China's $6.7 billion orders. However, in the following three years, it has been pressed by Chinese shipbuilders in the second position, and the order volume in the fourth quarter of 2023 is only half of ours.
In 2009, China's shipbuilding industry surpassed South Korea for the first time in two major indicators such as new orders and hand-held orders, and 40 years ago, in 1969, it was the starting point of South Korea's shipbuilding industry.
At that time, the hegemon of the world shipbuilding industry was Japan, which accounted for half of the world shipbuilding market.
That year, Zheng Zhouyong, the founder of Hyundai Group, made a bold statement: "Shipbuilding is to make a large iron box from a large iron plate, and then put an engine in the iron box and let it float on the sea." ”
During the Second Five-Year Plan, President Park Chung-hee set a target of 10% annual economic growth, 20% annual growth rate in the industrial and mining industries, and a significant increase in national income.
In 1967, the outbreak of the Third Middle East War and the closure of the Suez Canal for eight years led to a huge increase in demand for giant oil tankers and an unprecedented boom in the world's shipbuilding industry.
In the same year, South Korea, which saw an opportunity, promulgated the "Shipbuilding Industry Promotion Act", and the president's preferred executor was Chung Joo-yong.
Zheng Zhouyong was also full of ambition and issued the shipbuilding rhetoric above, but the people below were very worried: "We have no experience and no technology, so how can we build ships?"
"We have built so many power plants and refineries, designed all kinds of iron plates, and welded all kinds of iron plates," Zheng said. Shipbuilding is not at all difficult for the workers of our Hyundai Group. ”
Unexpectedly, as soon as the words fell, Zheng Zhouyong suffered a critical blow from reality, to build a 500,000-ton ship, it was necessary to build a 900-meter-long dock, and it would cost 80 million US dollars just to buy machinery.
Disheartened, Zheng Zhouyong approached Kim He-yeol, the vice premier in charge of the economy: "I ran away from everything, they just don't give loans to Hyundai, I can only give up shipbuilding." ”
A few days later, Kim Hak-yeol said to Chung Joo-yong, "The president invites you to come to the Blue House."
As soon as he sat down, Zheng Zhouyong poured bitter water: "Your Excellency, in order to raise funds for shipbuilding, I went to Japan and the United States, but they all looked down on us. The people of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries said that South Korea is still in the initial stage of technology, and they can assist in the construction, but it cannot exceed 50,000 tons, and they also ask to retain the right to supervise the project, and the Japanese do not want us to enter the 500,000-ton ship market at all, and I can't do it anymore. ”
After hearing this, Park Chung-hee was silent for a few seconds, then suddenly pointed his finger at Jung Joo-yong and said loudly to Vice Prime Minister Kim Hak-yeol: "In the future, everything that Jeong Joo-yong wants to do will be rejected, and the government will stop dealing with this person!"
After speaking, Park Chung-hee smoked with his head down, Jung Joo-yong did not dare to speak, and the president's office was silent.
After a while, Park Chung-hee got up and handed Jung Joo-young a cigarette: "Chairman Jeong, let me tell you only one person, the focus of the government's 'Third Five-Year Plan' is to develop the shipbuilding industry, and the goal of the 'Fourth Five-Year Plan' is to become a major ship exporter. You have the support of the president and the deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, what are you afraid of? No matter what method you use, please keep going. ”
After saying the hard words, Park Chung-hee gave Zheng Joo-yong an idea: "Japan and the United States have been there, let's go to Europe and have a look." The land for the construction of the shipyard has been found for you, right in Mipo Bay, Ulsan. ”
In 1971, Zheng Zhouyong persuaded Barclays Bank in London to provide a construction loan, but the British made it conditional that Zheng Zhouyong get the ship order first.
In the summer of that year, Zheng Zhouyong flew to Switzerland and signed a contract for two 260,000-ton oil tankers at a price 16% below the market price in the villa of the Greek ship king.
On March 23, 1972, at the groundbreaking ceremony of the Hyundai Shipyard in Ulsan's Mipo Port, Park Chung-hee delivered a speech and pleaded with local fishermen to support the construction of the shipyard.
Since then, Hyundai Heavy Industries, which specializes in shipbuilding, has set a new world record in terms of time and cost along the way, and a 700,000-ton shipyard has been miraculously completed before the two ships of the king of ships have been completed.
Under the strong push of the government, Daewoo Heavy Industries' Yupu Shipyard and Samsung Heavy Industries' Geoje Shipyard have started construction successively, and Hyundai, Daewoo, and Samsung have jointly launched an "attack" against Japanese shipbuilders.
In 1985, a British journalist wrote after visiting a Korean shipyard: "From the time the huge steel plates were cut in the foundry to the time when the dry dock was opened and the water was released, Korean workers took half the time of European shipyards, and the price was 10 percent lower." ”
Relying on government support, a large number of industrial workers, and the creation of giants to quickly occupy the market, South Korea's shipbuilding industry rose rapidly, surpassing Japan at the beginning of the 21st century and becoming the world's top shipbuilding industry.
Why did the United States, Britain, Japan, and South Korea choose the shipbuilding industry as their pillar industry in the process of their respective industrialization?
There is no other reason, because shipbuilding can drive too many industries, shipbuilding industry is known as the "crown of comprehensive industry", it has many parts, long supply chain, high industrial relevance, involving steel, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electronics and other more than 50 industries.
It can be said that the export of ships has been supported, and the export of the entire mechanical and electrical industry has also been supported.
At the beginning of reform and opening up, the overall shipbuilding level of China's shipbuilding industry, which was mainly based on building military ships, lagged behind the world by 30 or 40 years, and more than 300,000 shipbuilders in the whole industry had no ships to build.
On December 6, 1977, after listening to the reports of the relevant ministries and commissions, Comrade Xiaoping gave instructions: "The shipbuilding industry should actively introduce advanced foreign technology, and China's ships should be exported and entered the international market. ”
Bao Yugang, the "king of the world's ships," was very excited by the phrase "Chinese ships want to enter the international market," and after visiting relatives and friends on the mainland, he announced that his global shipping group would spend $100 million to order six huge ships from the China State Shipbuilding Corporation.
▲Chai Shufan (first from left), Bao Yugang (third from left)
After decades of isolation from the world, China's shipbuilding industry is finally about to build the first foreign cargo ship, a 27,000-ton bulk carrier ordered in full accordance with international standards, named the "Great Wall".
It is no exaggeration to say that the success or failure of the "Great Wall" has a bearing on whether or not China can enter the international market, and if it is built well, it will be a mobile billboard in the world's oceans; if it is not built well, it will smash the signboard of China's shipbuilding.
On the night of signing the contract, Chai Shufan, then head of the Sixth Machinery Department, said to the person in charge of the Production Bureau: "You have to grasp this ship yourself like you are building a nuclear submarine." ”
The task of building the "Great Wall" was taken over by the historic Dalian Shipyard, and the director of the factory, Sun Wenxue, was still excited when he mentioned the "Great Wall" many years later: "Our Dalian Shipyard has built 10,000-ton ships and submarines, but we have used the survey standards inherited from the Soviet Union. ”
At that time, the international standard of the "Great Wall" was unheard of for domestic shipyards, so no factory dared to accept it, and Sun Wenxue said to the leaders of the department: "If the more than 20,000 workers in our factory want to eat, even if they take a big risk, even if they go to court at a loss, I will take it! If we say bigger, we will win glory for the country, and if we say smaller, we will fight for the workers of the shipyard! Don't they all say that the moon is round in foreign countries, and we want foreigners to say that the moon in China is even rounder!"
The leaders of the ministry were very moved, but they also put the ugly words in front: "The construction period is only 18 months, and after that, the preferential period is one month, and for each day exceeded, a fine of 4,500 US dollars will be imposed, and if the deadline is exceeded by 150 days, the shipowner can abandon the ship." If such a consequence occurs, our strategic deployment of building export ships will be lost. ”
Director Sun made a military order, tore off a desk calendar every day, and his heart "chuckled", although he had confidence in the experienced workers in the factory, but after all, he was facing unheard of international norms.
In the early stage of technical exchanges, the British surveyor Allen brought two Japanese welders, and the masters of the Dalian factory were eager to try, and the result was that after an "exchange", there were only 25 defects in Japanese welding, and more than 300 defects were found by our "masters".
In the inspection simulation according to the standards of export ships, our side confidently took out three hull components that we thought were of good quality, and the British surveyors actually found 2,434 defects from them, and then said to the workers of the Dalian factory: "In our country, if 20 defects are found in one component, we must rework them; there is no buyer for shipbuilding quality like yours in the international market!"
The words of the British surveyor shocked the workers, a technical reform was carried out in the Dalian factory, the workers did not get off the slipway for several days and nights, the welding light flashed day and night, after several months of devil training, thousands of welding masters were born, and many workers got foreign welding certificates, laying a talent foundation for the large-scale construction of export ships later.
On February 20, 1981, the day of the "Great Wall" being closed in sections, British surveyor Allen boarded the assembled giant ship for the final measurements.
After measuring it once, Allen had an incredible expression on his face, and after five times, Allen's face was flushed, and his lips trembled and he stretched out his thumb to those present: "It's perfect, it's perfect! I didn't expect it, I really didn't expect it! The Chinese workers are so great!"
Allen's measurements show that the 197-meter-long giant ship has an error of only 2 millimeters, and is only 2 cents thick.
On September 14, the "Great Wall" held a launching ceremony at Dalian Shipyard, which lasted only 10 months from the start of construction to launching, and the then Vice Premier Gu Mu, the Honorary Chairman of Global Shipping Group Bao Zhaolong, and the Chairman of Lloyd's Register Huskisen attended the ceremony to congratulate him.
With the sailing of the "Great Wall", after 30 years of riding the wind and waves, Chinese ships broke South Korea's domination of global shipbuilding orders in 2021 and occupied the first place on the list.
In 2023, built by Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the mainland's first large-scale cruise ship "Aida Modu" will be successfully completed and put into operation, marking that China's shipbuilding industry has gathered the three "crown jewels" of the shipbuilding industry: large cruise ships, large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and aircraft carriers.
In the past 20 years, China and South Korea have dominated the world's shipbuilding industry, and Japan, the former hegemon, has been left far behind, and its market share has fallen from 50% at its peak to 10% today.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the former "steel giant", almost withdrew from the merchant ship construction business, and Mitsubishi Shipbuilding, which was spun off, no longer has a factory, and its main business is software design.
At present, Japan's largest shipbuilder, Imabari Shipbuilding, is developing ammonia-fueled ships, trying to open a breakthrough from the "new generation of environmentally friendly fuel ships".
In the field of ammonia-fueled ships, China's Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry and South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries are also starting to develop, and the Japanese media are not optimistic about the prospects of Imabari Shipbuilding's "corner overtaking", their comments are:
Japan's new generation of fuel ships could repeat the mistakes of the past.
The wind is high and the waves are urgent
In the first quarter of this year, South Korean shipbuilders were menacing, winning new ship orders of 13.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 45.5% of their annual orders last year, surpassing China's 12.6 billion US dollars.
In terms of the number of orders received, China still beats South Korea's 4.49 million revised gross tons, ranking first in the world in the first quarter of 2024 with 4.9 million revised gross tons.
The modified gross tonnage (CGT) is a unit of work required to build a given ship, allowing for a reasonable comparison of shipbuilding production between countries, and was developed by the OECD Shipbuilding Working Group in 1977.
In order to catch up with China, South Korean shipbuilders have launched an "order screening strategy", attacking high value-added ship types, and winning 100% of the orders for environmentally friendly ships in the first quarter of this year from global shipowners, with 29 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and 20 ammonia carriers.
Among them, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Marine, a subsidiary of HD Hyundai Group, announced on February 26 that it had won a contract for the construction of four 174,000 cubic meter liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, with a total order value of about US$1.08 billion and a single ship cost of about US$270 million, setting the highest price for a 174,000 cubic meter LNG carrier so far.
As of the end of March, South Korea's three major shipbuilders, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries, and Hanwha Marine, ranked among the top three in the world's single shipyards in terms of hand-held orders, which also drove South Korea's trade exports to maintain growth for eight consecutive months.
On February 28, just two days after the shipping company won the big order, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea released three major export targets for 2024: annual exports of 700 billion US dollars, attracting foreign investment of 35 billion US dollars, and investing 110 trillion won (about 594.6 billion yuan) in local cutting-edge industries.
South Korea's Ministry of Industry believes that the shipbuilding industry will bear the brunt of the $700 billion export target to be achieved.
On March 5, Yonhap News Agency announced that the South Korean government will join hands with the three shipbuilding giants to invest 9 trillion won (about 48.6 billion yuan) to further expand the technological leadership of the shipbuilding industry and strive to control the technology with a super gap in the shipbuilding field.
On April 17, the United States announced the launch of a Section 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry, and South Korea's five largest shipbuilding stocks rose in response. However, at present, the impact on Chinese shipbuilders is very limited because the share of US shipyards in the global market is only 0.1%.
The medium- to long-term goal of the Korean shipbuilding industry is to develop liquefied hydrogen carriers by 2030 and to lead the development of international standards for autonomous ships.
With a strong enemy on the side, Chinese shipbuilding is moving along its own route.
In December 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the Action Plan for the Green Development of the Shipbuilding Industry (2024-2030).
The development goal in the "Outline" is that by 2025, the green development system of the shipbuilding industry will be initially established, and by 2030, the green development system of the shipbuilding industry will be basically completed.
Translated, China's shipbuilding industry has begun to transition to clean energy and will dominate the environmental era of shipbuilding.
The pinnacle showdown between China and South Korea's shipbuilding industry is sailing into the deep sea.
(Source: China Commercial Towers)