The electric fan-style market makes people very helpless, and individual stocks have risen and fallen for three consecutive days, but they just can't make money. If you don't have the determination, if you chase hot spots every day, you are likely to lose more, and there is really not much sustainable hot spot to grasp. After the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles", many investors did not dare to be optimistic about small and micro cap stocks anymore, and as a result, they have risen endlessly in the past few days.
Compared with the external disk, A shares did go very poor a few days ago, but today the Asia-Pacific market weakened, A shares went very steadily, although the rise and fall, but the close is still up, after all, yesterday went well, the index can continue to rise for two days, it is also very good, and today is Thursday, now is the outbreak period of performance thunder, can go like this, it is worthy of praise.
Whether it can achieve three consecutive yangs after two consecutive yangs, if it can really get out of three consecutive yangs, it is of great help to boost morale, from a technical point of view, the Shanghai index multiple moving averages are glued together, and the short-term trend is unknown. The Shenzhen Component Index has strengthened in the past two days, but it is facing the suppression of the 20-day moving average above, which is also a dilemma. From a technical point of view, it is difficult to judge the strength of the market. However, from the perspective of the three elements of quantity and energy, money-making effect, and the main line, it is difficult for the market to rise continuously, and the sentiment of the market is not high, and it is more necessary to maintain a rhythm of repeated shocks.
I tend not to rush in the short term, but to have confidence in the medium term. In the short term, as long as you don't chase high, the probability of daring to make money is still very high, even if you are trapped, don't worry, firmly hold shares and wait for the wind to come. Don't cut the meat, and don't toss back and forth. Banks have become a weapon to stabilize the index. As long as these two major indices can be stable, there will be no major changes in the market.
Thursday's market is in a steady transition to the good, how will the market go tomorrow?
1. Today, the volume continues to shrink and rise, foreign capital is the key force to stabilize the market, and domestic capital is smashing sharply, can the inflow of foreign capital be sustainable?
Today's market trend, basically and foreign capital of the time-sharing trend is highly overlapped, obviously foreign capital is the stabilizer of the market, domestic capital in yesterday's day after the net inflow, today without suspense of the large outflow, this law has basically not changed, the market to rise, can not always rely on foreign capital to do long, after all, the volume of foreign capital is relatively small, domestic capital is the key to determine the direction of the market, foreign capital can only affect the trend of the market in the short term.
As far as the current market is concerned, the continuous inflow of foreign capital in the past two days has a certain relationship with the news that foreign institutions are long A shares, and foreign investment banks such as Goldman Sachs are bullish on A shares to 4200 points, which has a certain encouragement for foreign confidence in longs. However, if domestic capital is always not confident, it is impossible for foreign capital to continue to have a net inflow.
Foreign investors are optimistic about China's economy, and the economic growth rate will exceed expectations, but these data must be reflected in the exchange rate in order to truly stimulate the confidence of foreign capital to go long. If the exchange rate is always high, it will not only affect the confidence of foreign investors to go long, but also affect the confidence of domestic investors to go long.
We have confidence in the market, and we need to build confidence from the data side, not by feeling. Like the continuous improvement of economic data, the continuous net inflow of institutional funds, and the improvement of corporate earnings, only more data can support investors' confidence in going long.
I am still skeptical about whether foreign capital can continue to flow in, and domestic capital has always been an active smash, once foreign capital no longer flows, the market will fall into a volatile rhythm again.
2. How will the market go tomorrow and what are the key points?
The plan is not as good as the change, the after-hours prediction is from a static result to predict the future dynamic of the market, how big do you think this winning rate can be? You must know what aspects to observe, not staring at your stocks every day, that is not called looking at the market, only staring at your own stocks, and speculating for a lifetime has not grown.
We do not deny that we should focus on stock trading, and focus is not just staring at one's own one-third of an acre, without observing the market and the changes in the sector. The purpose of observation is mainly to deduce and predict the future direction, and it is more valuable to predict the changes in the sector than to predict the rise and fall of the index.
First, although the funds have been attacking small and medium-sized themes in the past two days, bringing a very good money-making effect on the market, the hot spots rotate too fast, and you can't make money at all. On the contrary, there is a possibility of great losses. Especially people who like to toss, they can't get slapped left and right. As Lao Hu himself said, he sold a few stocks with more profits or long-term losses, and most of the rebalancing was unsuccessful, because he did not study the stocks enough, and the bands were not done well, and he was repeatedly educated by the market. It is enough to see how difficult it is to make money in the current market.
So we have to observe whether the strong sector can be sustainable, if not, you must not chase it, either wait for the opportunity to buy low after the strong sector retreats, or don't move.
Observing the market from the three elements of market activity, there is no amount of energy, no money-making effect, no main line, it is best not to participate. It is better to toss as little as possible, than to hold on firmly.
Second, whether the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market can continue to strengthen, if not, or do not participate, do not think that the Shanghai Index will break through upwards if it rises, which can only exacerbate the imbalance of the market, and is not conducive to the overall improvement of the market.
Third, the reason why the short-term rush is more of the nature of the over-falling rebound, but the amount of energy is insufficient, it is difficult to continue to push up, and the aimless guerrilla of funds is difficult to go up. Although it is a structural market, at least there must be a continuous hot spot, rather than a shot to change places.
Fourth, there is a piece of news about securities companies in the evening: the report of the State Council shows that it will concentrate on building a "national team" in the financial industry to promote the head securities companies to become stronger and better. It is possible to bring stimulation to brokers, although it is not a new thing, but brokerages have been too weak recently, and it is likely to be stimulated by the news, and now the market is more tangled. If you pull the weight, the subject will be left out in the cold, and if you focus on the theme, the weight is stable.
On the whole, under the positive stimulus, brokerages have the momentum of upward impulse, once the weight rises, the index will be very easy, as for whether the funds will shift from the subject to the weight, it is difficult to say.
If the rebound can not be increased, everything is a floating cloud, once it falls, the rebound results of several consecutive days will come to naught. It is still prudent to operate. Now that the annual line and the lower platform are getting closer and closer, there is a high probability that it will break through upwards after May Day, which may also be one of the main reasons for the recent shocks.