The "black swan" has arrived!
On the news side, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board at the opening in the evening, all falling by more than 1%, among them, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 2% intraday, and gold and silver also adjusted to varying degrees!
So, what exactly caused the three major US stock indexes to fall suddenly?
Let's talk!
It is understood that the main reason for the decline in U.S. stocks is the latest GDP in the United States!
Statistics show that the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter rose by 1.6%, and the expected increase was 2.4%, which was less than market expectations and far lower than the 3.4% in the previous quarter;
According to the disclosure data, the main driving force of the economy in the first quarter of the United States is the growth of consumer spending, but it should be noted that compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate of consumer spending has declined significantly, with a decline of 0.8%;
Not only is the GDP lower than expected, but the inflation and employment disclosed by the United States also exceed market expectations.
Inflation data, in particular, determines the Fed's first rate cut!
According to the data disclosed by the United States, the core personal consumption expenditures of the latest inflation indicator increased by 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.4%, indicating that the inflationary pressure in the United States still exists, and the interest rate cut will be postponed again!
At present, some market participants expect that the Fed's first interest rate cut will be postponed to December, so after the data is disclosed, the three major U.S. stock indexes will be adjusted across the board!
A-share index trend
Judging from Thursday's market trend, the three major A-share indexes continued to rebound and regained their footing above the 5th, 10th, and 20th lines;
Will the market continue to rise above the 3,060-point pressure level on Friday? Is there a chance to rise to the 3,100-point area?
Let's talk about them one by one!
First of all, I personally think that the rebound of the market on Thursday is not up to par, that is, the rebound is relatively weak!
Isn't the market standing above the short-term moving average? Why is it still relatively weak?
This brings us to the volume!
After all, the volume can express everything intuitively!
We can see that in the process of continuous rebound, the trading volume of the market has not been enlarged, but has been shrinking and remaining below 800 billion!
And Thursday's volume can be around 770 billion, a new low since February, and the continuous immeasurable rebound means that the market may fall back again!
The second is that the rebound of the market for two consecutive days is a small yang line rebound, and the physical yang line has not risen by more than 1% in the day, which also shows the strength of the rebound from the side!
Therefore, in the context of a weak rebound, coupled with the decline of the peripheral market, I personally think that the probability of market adjustment on Friday is relatively large, and it is possible to go back to the market!
The position of stepping back is also in the area of 3000 points to 3020 points, and it is more difficult to break through before the holiday!
Before the holiday, the funds are in the sign of risk aversion, the decline in trading volume, and the disturbance of performance thunder, there is no main line market to drive the upward attack!
Therefore, on the whole, the probability of continuing to adjust the market before the holiday is relatively large, and after the post-holiday performance thunder disturbance has passed, the next round of upward attack chips will be precipitated, and the market will continue to attack 3100 points!