#精品长文创作季#
Nowadays, the tense trend between China and the United States is becoming more and more obvious, and India's importance in the strategic layout of the United States is also increasing. The United States has not only sent technology giants such as Apple, Dell, and Tesla to India, but they are also preparing to include Indian government bonds in the "Wall Street Carefully Selected Investment".
India's population has already surpassed that of the mainland, and the Indian-US alliance will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the mainland. Although the United States has made unprecedented efforts to woo India, mainland experts are not worried. Four reasons why we are not afraid of India-US alliance, what is it all about?
1. India's strategy of multi-directional alliance
At the time when India was just out of British control, Indian leaders determined a "non-aligned" foreign strategy. This is definitely the right choice for India, which is in the midst of a Cold War environment. In recent years, however, India has embarked on a new path of "multi-directional alliance".
As we all know, relations between Russia and the United States have been tense since Biden took office. Most countries in the world are facing the embarrassment of "choosing sides", but India is one of the few regional powers that can maintain close relations with Russia and the United States at the same time. From India's arms purchase contracts, you can see the essence of India's "multi-directional alliance".
In 2021, Putin made a high-profile visit to India and signed a decade-long military cooperation agreement with India with a stroke of a pen, when Russia promised to give India the most advanced anti-aircraft missile technology. Just when many netizens thought that India would completely fall to Russia, India turned around and formed an "intelligence-sharing quadrilateral mechanism" with the United States, Japan, and Australia, and also increased the purchase of American drones.
Although many experts on the mainland are not optimistic about India's "pro-Russian and pro-American" diplomatic strategy, judging from the current situation, India has really managed to curry favor with both sides. In handling its relations with China and the United States, India is also adhering to the strategy of "multi-directional alliance."
Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, who is about to visit Japan in early March, was interviewed by Japanese media in India. The spokesperson of India's diplomatic strategy went so far as to say in a high-profile manner that "China and India are reshaping the world pattern." Jaishankar's remarks may seem off-topic, but in fact they are his statement to uphold India's "multi-directional alliance" strategy.
India's foreign minister knows very well that the island countries have invited him to visit in order to win India together against China. The reason why Jaishankar emphasized that "China and India are reshaping the world pattern" is to let the West understand that India will not bow down to the West. Whether it is doing business with the United States or holding military exercises, India will not support the United States unconditionally as one-sidedly and unconditionally as Japan and South Korea do.
In the first quarter, the total foreign trade volume of the mainland with the United States, the European Union, and other Western markets shrank significantly, of which the total trade volume between China and the United States fell by 4 percent. However, China-India trade has not only not been affected by the West's policy of decoupling and disconnection, but has also increased by 4.9%. It can be seen that India did not follow the West in boycotting Made in China.
2. The situation in India amid internal and external troubles
Although India's economy completed a counterattack against Britain last year, India's security situation is not as good as Modi's propaganda in two aspects.
First, there are the internal challenges of the CPI-Maoists. As we all know, India is a country that strictly enforces the caste system, and the vast majority of the wealth fruits achieved by the country's development are in the hands of the Brahmin aristocracy, while the people at the bottom, who account for more than ninety percent of the country's population, can only struggle in pain. According to the relevant data released by the United Nations, more than 400 million people in India are still living in extreme poverty where food is a problem.
As the saying goes, "where there is oppression, there is resistance", and the largest resistance group in India is the CPI-Maoist. Although the CPI-Maoist sect has been established less than 60 years ago, it has already established more than 50 bases in impoverished villages in southeastern India. Although the Indian military has always claimed that their "achievements in suppressing bandits" are very remarkable, the spark of fire may not be so easy to extinguish.
Indian officials reportedly killed 13 CPI-Maoists in an operation in early April and seized large quantities of standard weapons. There are two pieces of information that deserve attention in this report of the Indian state media: first, why the Indian side deliberately avoided the official losses, and second, why the CPI-Maoists, who have been encircled and suppressed for many years, can still obtain a large number of standard weapons.
Second, the external pressure of the Pakistani railway. India-Pakistan relations are the most intricate bilateral relations in South Asia, and there are not only territorial disputes but also sectarian conflicts between the two countries, which have been in conflict for many years.
According to media reports, armed clashes have recently broken out between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir region. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have made the global security situation very tense, and any disturbance at this time will make India face a huge challenge from Pakistan. India, which is bent on becoming the hegemon of South Asia, not only has a bad relationship with Pakistan and Railway, but even Sri Lanka and the Maldives have great opinions about India.
Sri Lanka has already imposed two mandatory detention measures on Indian fishermen due to the problem of fishermen illegally crossing the border, which has made Modi Laoxian, who is busy with the election, very embarrassed. Recently, the President of the Maldives issued an "eviction order" to Indian troops, and India will lose its military base in the Maldives on May 10.
Under the dual pressure of the CPI-Maoists and neighboring countries, it will be difficult for India to extricate itself from the situation of internal and external troubles in the short term. Even if Modi is determined to be a "thug" of the United States, it will be difficult for them to go all out to play for Washington.
3. China-India relations of struggle and unity
After the events in the Galwan Valley, India has not stopped provoking the mainland. On the one hand, India has strengthened the review of the "hostile state clause" of Chinese-funded enterprises, which has caused Xiaomi's Chinese enterprises in India to suffer heavy losses. On the one hand, it has expanded its de facto control over southern Tibet, putting huge security pressure on the mainland border.
Many friends believe that we should completely cut off economic and trade exchanges with India, so as to ensure China's interests in the struggle against India. However, from a practical point of view, the mainland has not only not fallen out with India, but has also increased economic and trade exchanges with India.
First, India can help us resolve the overcapacity crisis. Take the problems encountered by the mobile phone industry as an example, global mobile phone shipments will decline by 3.2% in 2023, and the shipments of domestic mobile phone brands in the domestic market will only increase by 1.1%.
Although the economic development gap between India and the mainland is still huge, India's mobile phone sales have exceeded the 150 million mark. In addition to mainland mobile phone manufacturers, Samsung, Apple and other Western mobile phone manufacturers are also very attached to India's consumption prospects.
In addition, the mainland can help India achieve industrial upgrading. The reason why India has not decoupled from the mainland with the West is that it wants to rely on the power of Chinese manufacturing to complete the industrial upgrading of its own economy.
Made in China has increased the proportion of production capacity to 30% of the world's total, and everything Indian companies need can be bought from Chinese suppliers. Last year, the mainland exported about $117.7 billion of various goods to India, including $2.2 billion worth of lithium batteries. These lithium batteries have not only helped India produce countless electronic devices, but they are also an important resource for the development of new energy vehicles in India.
Tensions in the border areas have indeed given some bad signs to Sino-Indian relations, but for those who adhere to the path of peaceful development, these historical issues can be resolved through negotiations. China and India have a very strong desire for economic development, and this common aspiration is the basis of the interests of the two countries' unity.
Fourth, the Chinese miracle that is difficult to surpass
The Western media who talk about China's economy always like to talk about the "demographic dividend", and in their opinion, as the problem of negative population growth of the Chinese population becomes more and more obvious, China's economy will fall to the altar. As we all know, India's population has exceeded 1.4 billion, and according to the United Nations, India has surpassed the continent to become the world's most populous country.
Since China can become the world's second largest economy by relying on the demographic dividend, can India also replicate China's miracle? The Western media with such thoughts obviously ignore the core strength of China's economy.
According to statistics, the total export value of the mainland's shipbuilding industry in the first quarter was as high as 3.1 billion US dollars, and the total export value of the automobile industry was 16.9 billion US dollars. The combined exports of these two products have far exceeded traditional export commodities such as clothing, shoes and hats. Negative population growth will indeed deprive us of cheap labor that is indispensable for the development of low-end manufacturing, but a strong "talent dividend" can allow China's economy to continue to take off.
On the other hand, the technical level of Indian manufacturing is probably not as optimistic as the Western media said. The scandal that the Indian company responsible for the production of mobile phone cases for iPhones has been exposed to a pass rate of less than 50% shows that India's industrial workers still need a long time to learn.
Not only is the low-end manufacturing industry not doing well, but India's high-end industry is also very strained. In order not to let Made in India miss the dividends of the era of the great development of the global chip industry, Modi has come up with a subsidy budget of up to $10 billion. However, except for a few companies such as Foxconn, no Western chip giant has decided to build factories in India.
Don't these Western chip giants want India's cake? As we all know, India is a country with very backward power infrastructure. The chip industry is a proper high-energy-consuming industry, and I am afraid that any Western chip company will not dare to build a factory in a country like India, which may have power outages at any time.
epilogue
India is used to maneuvering between the big powers, and they don't go to any one country at all, because India has always wanted to be a real hegemon. China and India still have many common interests, and as long as we can manage our differences and continue to expand economic and trade exchanges with India, we don't have to worry about the West's divisive schemes.
So, how do you think we should develop Sino-Indian relations? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.