We need to see that behind this military exercise, the experience of information synchronization and coordinated operations between the United States and the Philippines is accumulating. What will be the result of this, that is, if there is a conflict, the US military can provide all the intelligence information on the battlefield, and the specific implementation will be done by the Philippines.
Producer: Chuantuo Think Tank (No. 5121 Exclusive Debut)
Regarding the shoulder-to-shoulder 2024 joint military exercise that the United States and the Philippines have begun to implement in the past few days, I need to talk about this matter, the United States and the Philippines have characterized this military exercise as the largest military exercise in the history of the alliance between the two countries, in fact, it has started in the past two years, and the scale has suddenly become larger, about 9,000 people participated in 2022, and it will increase to 17,000 in 2023, and this year's Shoulder to Shoulder 2024 is almost between 1.6 and 17,000 people in terms of numbers, so the scale still maintains a high level since last year.
Picture interpretation: Philippine Air Force fighter jets provided for South Korea
Picture interpretation: The Philippine Air Force has only 12 jet fighters
So this year's Shoulder to Shoulder 2024, I think there are three places we need to pay attention to, the first is that the situation is very different from last year, in April last year, the conflict between Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal was not as tense as it is today, and the confrontation between the two sides using high-pressure water cannons began in August last year, so last year's Shoulder to Shoulder 2023 military exercise has changed a lot compared with this year. Under the current situation, the United States and the Philippines have carried out large-scale military exercises, and the imaginary enemy has become more clear, and it is very directly reflected in the subject of the exercise.
Picture interpretation: The intensification of contradictions in Nansha began last summer
That's the second point I'm going to talk about now, and I'm going to summarize it into three firsts. In this year's U.S.-Philippines Shoulder to Shoulder 2024, the sea area of the exercise is 12 nautical miles beyond the territorial waters of the Philippines for the first time, overlapping with the nine-dash line, and directly intersecting with the sea area we claim, which conveys the meaning is very obvious. That is to say, last year's 2023 was within their territorial waters, and this year it not only went beyond 12 nautical miles, but also went deep into the nine-dash line we claim. This spatial extension is essentially an expression of strategic intent.
The second is that the Philippines will use an anti-ship missile to sink a decommissioned Navy ship for the first time in this exercise, and the Philippine Air Force will also conduct live-fire drills and launch surface-to-air missiles for air defense drills. This needs to be emphasized, because this subject has risen to a specific tactical level, and it is the first time, the Philippines does not have decent air defense and sea domination capabilities, let alone launch live ammunition for drills, but it will be fully reflected in this US-Philippine shoulder to shoulder 2024.
Picture interpretation: The United States and the Philippines are cruising at sea, and the Philippine ship is a retired coast guard ship of the US military
And the most important thing is that the Philippines deliberately found an old Chinese-made ship as a target ship, and the implication is self-evident.
The third first is, this year's shoulder to shoulder 2024 is the first information warfare exercise, a run-in was carried out in early April, we can see from this picture, the United States and the Philippines envisage a maritime conflict in the waters near the Nansha Islands, how the United States and the Philippines should respond, we can see from the sand table, the red markers represent Chinese ships, and the United States and the Philippines envisaged various confrontation methods between the two sides in the exercise.
Picture interpretation: The sand table exercise in the US-Philippine military exercise shows that they simulated the intervention of the Chinese fleet
Therefore, we need to see that behind this military exercise, the experience of information synchronization and coordinated operations between the United States and the Philippines is accumulating. What will this lead to, that is, if there is a conflict, the US military can provide all the intelligence information on the battlefield, and the specific implementation will be done by the Philippines, just like in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the US military will provide the location of the target, and the specific strike will be completed by Ukraine, which is the ultimate goal of the information warfare exercise.
Picture interpretation: The BrahMos anti-ship missile technology purchased by the Philippines is derived from the jewel anti-ship missile of Soviet Russia
Then the third place we should pay attention to is that the United States and the Philippines will carry out confrontation exercises in two waters at the same time in 2024, namely the western waters of Palawan Island in the Philippines and the Batanes Islands in the northern Philippines, which also indicates that the United States and the Philippines will establish confrontation capabilities in these two directions in the future, the west side of Palawan Island is the Nansha Islands, and the Batanes Islands are the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Island to the north.
So this also shows that the United States and the Philippines can intervene in the South China Sea on the one hand, and the Taiwan Strait on the other, which is what we need to see from the Shoulder to Shoulder 2024 exercise. This article was first published exclusively by @川陀智库 and is not reproduced in any form. #文章首发挑战赛#