Lightyear FX: Financial Analyst, Financial Media Person, Amateur Research Trading Technical Analysis. Stay on top of the latest cutting-edge technology information and share the most in-depth industry insights with you. The following content is from Just2Trade.
1. How to choose dark horse stocks
1. Technically, dark horse stocks
1) First of all, the circulating market value should be small, but it must be noted that the circulation should be small, followed by the stock price should be low, so that the circulating market value is small, the circulation is small, the selling pressure is light, and the dealer is easy to rise, and has the ability to protect the disk when the market is unfavorable.
2) At the end of the long-term decline of the stock price, the stock price stops falling and rises, the trading volume is enlarged when it rises, and the trading volume shrinks when it pulls back, and there are more positive lines than negative lines on the daily K-line chart. The trading volume corresponding to the yang line is obviously amplified, and the peak volume is connected by a diagonal line, which is obviously rising, indicating that the main market maker is in the collection stage.
3) The 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement or a quasi-bullish arrangement, and the conventional technical indicators are all strong, especially the daily MACD is about to appear in the red column, and the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute MACD has at least two red columns that are about to appear or have appeared.
4) The stock price forms an arc bottom, and the trading volume is getting smaller and smaller. At this time, seeing the lack of momentum for the decline, the main force quietly entered the market to collect, and the trading volume began to gradually enlarge, and the stock price rose at the bottom due to the intervention of the main force, and the trading volume was still characterized by oblique amplification.
5) When the stock price is in a downturn, the listing announcement is bearish. The stock price opened sharply lower and triggered the majority of small and medium-sized retail investors to sell, the main force to intervene in the stock price rose instead, the trading volume was amplified, and the stock price rose sharply when it should fall.
6) The stock price is seriously over-falling, the technical indicators have a bottom divergence, and the dynamic daily K-line of the day is a positive line, and the dark horse is prone to a V-shaped reversal.
7) The K-line pattern is rectangular up and down oscillations, the volume is enlarged when it rises, and the volume shrinks when it falls.
2. Conditions for the achievement of dark horse stocks
1) There will be a variety of negative encounters before starting
In fact, individual stocks that can become dark horse stocks will always encounter all kinds of negative effects before launching. These disadvantages are mainly manifested in: the deterioration of the operation of listed companies, major litigation matters, condemnation and investigation by regulatory authorities, and a large proportion of expansion in a weak market.
2) The pre-formation trend makes investors not hopeful about it
Although it will eventually become a dark horse stock, but before the formation of its trend often makes public investors do not have hope for it, this is mainly because its trend is very ugly, usually a long continuous negative line to break through various technical support levels, from the trend form will also show a serious breaking situation, a variety of commonly used technical indicators also show a weak pattern, so that investors feel that the market outlook is huge, psychological panic, thereby shaking investors' confidence in holdings.
3) Unnatural volume at the bottom
Stocks that can become dark horses will have unnatural volume in the bottoming stage, showing that incremental funds are actively intervening. Because retail funds will not flock to build positions under the double blow of negative fundamentals and bad technicals, the volume at this time shows that some panic disks are fleeing regardless of the cost, and the stock price remains unchanged when the volume is increased, which often indicates that there are main funds taking the opportunity to build positions.
2. Look for dark horse stocks from the sub-IPO stocks
1. Analyze the industry background of IPOs and sub-IPOs
By analyzing the industry background of new stocks and sub-new stocks, they can be divided into three categories: sunrise industries, general industries, and sunset industries. Generally speaking, the type of industry can determine the "role" of the stock after it is listed. Through screening and analysis, you can also find out some stocks that have been involved in the main force for a long time, or you can find out some stocks in special industries.
2. Analyze the basic qualities of the IPO
Generally speaking, the sub-IPO shares with the potential of dark horse stocks have small circulation, good performance, and have the characteristics of high transfer and high cash payout.
3. Analysis of the performance of the secondary market on the first day
There are generally two situations after the opening of a new stock, that is, it may open higher or lower at the opening. However, there are opportunities to invest, and it should be pointed out that through statistical analysis, it is known that 99.5% of new shares have increased their stock prices above the highest price of the first day of trading.
4. Analyze the technical indicators of the IPO
Generally speaking, investors who speculate on sub-IPOs focus on the indicators such as the popularity indicator AR and the willingness indicator BR. Among them, the sentiment indicator AR can reflect the sentiment of the sub-IPO trading, and the willingness index BR can reflect the strength of the willingness to buy and sell the sub-IPO.
5. Analyze the fundamentals and main financial indicators of listed companies
Among all the public information of listed companies, the prospectus has a high gold content and is also the first public appearance of a listed company, from which some valuable information can be mined. Thirdly, a combination of factors can also give a rough idea of the honesty and transparency of the company's management towards investors.
6. Master the characteristics of the sub-IPO stock
Generally speaking, investors can still actively select stocks in the process of rising new stocks, but they should pay attention to whether the trading volume is too large, because if the trading volume is too large, it will greatly consume the momentum of the stock price upward attack, and it is easy to make the stock price peak in the short term and turn into a strong adjustment.
7. Side-by-side comparison of the positioning of the secondary market
Use the price comparison effect to identify undervalued stocks, specifically, by comparing whether the opening price is undervalued or overvalued, and the performance pattern of the highest and lowest prices. By comparison, it is possible to identify some undervalued stocks, and the stocks with high allocations tend to be in small-cap stocks.
8. Understand the historical characteristics of the IPO
In this regard, investors need to pay attention to the following points: first, the length of time the new shares have been listed, second, whether the new shares have been frantically speculated, third, whether the performance of the new shares is stable, and fourth, whether there are heavy hedged chips in the upper file.
9. The sub-IPO stock that is most likely to become a dark horse stock
1) When listed in a downturn, the positioning is obviously low.
2) The leading sub-IPO stocks that were the first to be launched in a round of market.
3) "Born at the wrong time" sub-IPO stocks, mainly high-positioning sub-IPOs listed at the end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market, you can pay attention to the low-priced ultra-low sub-IPO stocks that have a long adjustment time and a decline far greater than the stock index.
4) After listing, there is no sub-IPO stock that has experienced significant speculation, and there is no hedging and trading intensive area for such stocks, and the upward resistance is small, and once the general trend is good, it is easy to have excellent performance.
5) The circulating stock and the total share capital are not large, and there are many years of accumulated profits and generous provident fund of the new shares, which have a strong ability to expand the share capital and can provide a guarantee for the strong trend in the future.
10. Screening skills for sub-IPOs
1) Look for dark horse stocks that are trading strongly sideways in a bear market
Although the depressed bear market is something that everyone does not want to encounter, the continuous decline in the stock market is pregnant with a future lift - capturing dark horse stocks.
2) Look for dark horse stocks that are trading strongly sideways in a bull market
In the bull market, various sectors take turns to perform, and one of the stocks makes a new high but then moves sideways on the spot to wear down the patience of followers. Such stocks deserve the attention of investors, as they tend to become the most explosive dark horse stocks in the future.
3) Long-term sideways IPOs and sub-IPOs are huge opportunities
Whether it is a bear market or a bull market, there will be some new stocks and sub-new stocks, which will either be low-key sideways at the beginning, or will be willing to be silent after a day or two of listing and carry out long-term sideways consolidation. Such new and sub-new stocks have more investment opportunities than old stocks.
3. Find dark horse stocks from information, ex-rights and reorganization
1. Equity transfer
Because the equity transfer will, to a certain extent, bring changes to the main business of the original listed company or even "change careers", and bring changes to the listed company from beginning to end. On the other hand, before the annual report and interim report are announced, there are always announcements of "selling equity and transferring assets" of listed companies, which will directly bring benefits to listed companies, and investors need to pay more attention.
2. Asset replacement
For equity transfer, the more thorough method of "asset replacement" often occurs in "ST" and "PT" companies. What we call "asset replacement" is actually to remove the inferior assets of the original listed company, and directly inject high-quality assets into the other party to quickly improve the performance of the listed company.
3. Announcement of pre-loss and lawsuit
The purpose of the management to launch the "pre-loss announcement" is actually to control excessive speculation, but its real implementation is like the original "ST shares", which has changed its original meaning, and the "pre-loss announcement" has often become the subject of speculation by the bankers.
4. Employee shares and re-allotment shares are listed
Many investors hold re-allotment shares or employee shares, the cost of this part of the chips is very low, and some are almost negligible, and once listed, it will definitely bring considerable pressure to the secondary market. Therefore, it is not surprising that many investors see this news as "bearish".
5. Seize the dark horse stocks in the restructuring stocks
1) In the annual report published by the listed company, attention should be paid to the ranking and composition of the top ten shareholders. For stocks with a low shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder and a relatively close shareholding ratio of the top shareholders, it is necessary to pay attention to it, and the possibility of such stock restructuring will be relatively large.
2) Generally speaking, the cost of restructuring small-cap stocks is relatively low, and it is easier to be restructured, and it is convenient for market makers to control the market and raise the stock price. In the market, it is more likely to be favored by mainstream funds. Once selected by the main force, the speed of rise can be imagined.
3) Pay attention to individual stocks that bring capital restructuring opportunities to listed companies due to the transfer of state-owned equity.
4) Pay attention to low-priced restructuring stocks, especially those that have been seriously oversold in the bear market, but have not risen much at present. Most of the restructuring stocks that have doubled in the past have risen from when the stock price is low, which is a phenomenon that has occurred in the past.
5) Pay attention to those poor performance, annual income can only be a small profit at most restructuring stocks, if it is some losses or about to be special treatment is better, the more the listed company is losing money or facing special treatment and delisting and other reasons, the greater the restructuring pressure, the more likely the listed company is to be restructured.
6. The law of restructuring shares
1) Companies that are in financial difficulties are the most likely to be restructured.
2) Equity transfer is a prelude to restructuring, and the new shareholder becomes the largest shareholder by transferring equity, indicating that the restructuring has begun.
3) The first wave of the market should not be involved, the first wave of the market is often caused by people who know the inside story to enter the market to grab chips, and then there will inevitably be a sharp fall and shuffle process.
4) The first wave of the market rushed up after a sharp fall, accompanied by the fundamental negative news, such as the announcement of the loss of the statement, etc., this is the last bearish, the company often will all kinds of potential losses all the provisions, and therefore the last fall, can become the best time for investors to participate.
7. Special attention should be paid to the selection of restructuring shares
1) The value of shell resources is the premise of restructuring, the total share capital and circulating stock are small, the asset quality is relatively good, and the debt burden is not too heavy, so it is relatively easy to restructure.
2) When the situation of listed companies continues to deteriorate, and the stock price continues to fall sharply and hit a new low, the listed company will have the desire and motivation to restructure, and the restructuring will be profitable, and the market maker will absorb enough cheap chips.
3) The strength of the restructuring party and the gold content of the restructuring project will determine the upside and potential of the stock price in the future, and the non-substantive restructuring is only to cooperate with the short-term speculation in the secondary market, and the potential for the future market is not large.
4) The stock price is at a low level.
5) As the company becomes easier to go public, it is the time when the exit mechanism really plays an effective role, the value of the shell resources of listed companies will continue to decrease, and the "salted fish" will become more and more smelly.