The May Day holiday is imminent, the pig market is in a "dilemma" situation, although, the market is generally optimistic about the end of the month by the holiday support, slaughtering enterprises before the performance of stocking, however, the market is good and difficult to cash, pig price trend is less than expected, the price shows a sideways weak trend!
From the perspective of the main pig contract, as of noon on April 25, the domestic pig main recent and far month contract quotations fell across the board, of which, the pig 2405 contract price fell 25 yuan/ton, equivalent to 14730 yuan/ton, the pig 2407 contract price was 15960 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton, the pig 2409 contract price was 17530 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton, and the live pig 2411 contract price was 17695 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton......
The price of the hog contract fell, which shows that the market's expectation of the forward pig price has decreased slightly!
On the one hand, the agency predicts that the domestic sow herd or will gradually stop falling and rebound, in April, the sow herd or will increase slightly, which is negative for the long-term pig price prospects, in particular, the domestic sow herd optimization, sow efficiency has been greatly improved, and the market has a disagreement on the pork supply capacity at the end of the year;
On the other hand, the market is expected to cool down slightly for the increase in consumption, in particular, the domestic feed cost has declined, the breeding industry has generally subsided, the price of pork competitors is relatively low, superimposed, and a large number of beef and mutton imports may have a certain substitution impact on pork consumption!
Judging from the recent market performance, due to the main pig contract 2405 quotation at 14730 yuan/ton, equivalent to the pig trading price of 14.73 yuan/kg, lower than the spot pig price of 14.96 yuan/kg, the agency estimates that the overall pig price in May is weak, which also exacerbates the concern about the prospect of pig prices at the breeding end, especially for the breeding end of the large pig herd has adverse pressure!
At present, the breeding end of the slaughter rhythm differentiation, the mainstream retail and group pig enterprises slaughter shrinkage price, the standard pig subscription mentality is not high, but, by the rise in temperature, the demand for fat pigs to follow up weakened, the prospect of pig prices in May is not good, the risk of breeding end of the pig pen is high, the market in the big pig subscription mentality still exists!
At present, in the north and south regions, the slaughterhouse is not very difficult to purchase pig sources, in particular, the festival has not yet been fully realized, the downstream white pigs are generally good, the enthusiasm of traders to receive goods is not high, the lack of new orders in the slaughterhouse, the operating rate is weak, and the enthusiasm for pig source procurement is limited!
According to the price of slaughtering enterprises, by the market long and short intertwined, it is expected that on April 26, the average price of foreign three-yuan lean pigs slaughtered or will remain at about 14.94 yuan / kg, pig prices fell 0.02 yuan, the market continued to fluctuate and continue to decline, among them, in the northern region, the phenomenon of pig price decline increased, and the decline in many places was 0.05 ~ 0.15 yuan;
Therefore, under the long and short game, pig prices show a weak and stable shock trend, personal estimates, by the festival good slow cash, rationally, before May Day, pig prices still have the basis for rising, however, by the large pig pressure risk is higher, the domestic frozen pork storage capacity rate at a high level of about 24%, pre-holiday slaughtering orders are more difficult, it is expected that pig prices will rise in space or will be limited! After the holiday, due to the poor follow-up of demand, superimposed, at the end of April, the precipitation of pig farms in the southern region increased, the risk of disease increased, the enthusiasm of pig production capacity will be improved, and the market may have a downward trend!