Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar recently called ASEAN the heart of India's "Look East Policy". Against the backdrop of heightened volatility in the South China Sea and the strengthening of relations between China and the United States and ASEAN, Jaishankar's remarks send a different signal. This may mean that the Modi government will use India's version of "Look East" to intervene in China's layout.
[Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar attends the ASEAN Forum via video]
In addition to talking about India's "Act East Policy", Jaishankar also made other statements, including that a strong and united ASEAN will play a constructive role in the Indo-Pacific region, and that promoting freedom of navigation and overflight is essential for business. In addition, Jaishankar also put India and ASEAN side by side, saying that it is time for the countries of the South to put forward their views and play a greater role.
It is worth noting that Jaishankar also made a point of mentioning the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. He told the ASEAN side that the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue have always been steadfast in their support for ASEAN's unity and centrality in the region, and believed that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would have a very positive impact on ASEAN.
It should be said that Jaishankar's above words are very worthy of careful interpretation.
[Indian Prime Minister Modi previously met with leaders of ASEAN countries]
First, he has not shied away from calling ASEAN the heart of India's "Act East" policy, which is already quite remarkable. The so-called "Eastward Policy" is actually a literal meaning, that is, India wants to expand its influence in the east, especially in Southeast Asia. This policy was proposed in the 90s, at the end of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union collapsed, India lost its most important partner, and at the same time India was wary of China and Pakistan, so it focused its diplomacy on Southeast Asia.
However, India's "Act East" policy has not yielded much tangible results for many years. There are many reasons for this, including India's preference for cooperation with the West, and the preference of Southeast Asian countries to focus on East Asia, especially China and Japan. A representative project that reflects the slow progress of India's "Eastward Policy" is the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Expressway.
The project has been in basic planning since 2002, but it has not yet been fully operational. While it is true that the road faces complex causes, including the instability in Myanmar, it has been working for so many years without any results, and it can also reflect many problems. To put it bluntly, India has not paid much attention to this work before.
[A section of the road in India and Myanmar under construction]
Jaishankar is now reiterating the "Look East" policy to ASEAN, with ASEAN at its core. This move could mean that Southeast Asia will become one of India's diplomatic centers of gravity in the future, and in a sense, it also means that India will come and fulfill its commitments.
Second, Jaishankar's suggestion that a strong and united ASEAN will play a constructive role in the Indo-Pacific region is actually quite subtle. You must know that China has stressed on more than one occasion that it firmly supports ASEAN's centrality in the regional architecture. We can see that in China's statement, ASEAN is "central", but in India's statement, ASEAN is only "playing a constructive role", and there is a world of difference between the two.
The subtext of the Chinese side is that China believes that ASEAN has the core voice and is its own master in Southeast Asia. In India's planning, ASEAN is only a very important member of the larger Indo-Pacific region, far from being in the center. After all, in India's eyes, the situation on the Pacific side is aside, and he should be the "boss" on the Indian Ocean. Although the scope is different, it does reflect the differences in how China and India view ASEAN.
[Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi]
In addition, the Indian Foreign Minister's special mention of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to ASEAN is also interesting. This mechanism developed by the United States, Japan, India, and Australia is essentially an encirclement network aimed at China, and this is well known to neighboring countries. However, even so, India and other countries still need to make a show and try to package the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as a "normal" platform. Jaishankar and ASEAN said the same thing.
Not only that, Jaishankar's remarks also clearly have the meaning of being a "guide" and bringing the influence of the United States, Japan, India and Australia into Southeast Asia. Considering that Southeast Asian countries generally have a good understanding of China, if similar words come out of the mouths of countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, it may arouse ASEAN's vigilance. However, India is also a developing country, and its size is also there, and even if it talks to ASEAN about the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, it does not seem to provoke too strong a reaction from the latter.
You must know that although India has joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue before, it has not seen much actual action, which has been criticized by hardliners in the United States, and there is even news that the Philippines may replace it. Now that India has taken the initiative to mention the United States' layout toward China, it may mean that they will make efforts in this area in the future.
[The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is composed of the United States, Japan, India and Australia]
As we all know, the direction of ASEAN is also an important layout for China, which is not only related to peace and stability in the South China Sea, but also related to China's "Belt and Road" initiative. India's high-profile view of ASEAN as the core of its "Look East Policy" has a vague implication of competing with China for influence in this regard. India is no longer satisfied with its influence in the Indian Ocean, but also wants to have a say in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, anyone with a discerning eye can see whether India's current "Go East Policy" really wants to promote development and cooperation, or whether it serves India's selfish interests. ASEAN has long stressed that it does not want to get involved in great power competition, let alone become a proxy of a foreign country. Everyone is aware of India's caution. Moreover, if India really has any ideas that bring instability to the region, China will not sit idly by.