[Market analysis and interpretation] 2024.4.25
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a slight shock trend, the two cities rose more and fell less, more than 3,400 stocks were red, with a half-day turnover of 499.3 billion and a net outflow of 281 million northbound funds.
I haven't talked about the two technical indicators of foreign capital and quantity for a long time, these two indicators, like the pulse and thermometer of the stock market, reveal the market sentiment and future trend to a certain extent, let's talk about it today.
First of all, let's take a look at the vane of foreign capital, the offshore exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar weakened in the past two days, hitting a four-month low, but this phenomenon has not significantly curbed the pace of foreign capital inflow, but in the context of a slightly easing external environment, foreign capital as a whole still maintains a relatively positive inflow trend. Nevertheless, I deeply feel that the real large-scale bottom-buying action of foreign capital may still need to wait for the release of the key signal of the Fed's interest rate cut, and until then, foreign capital may continue to participate in this state of "lukewarm", neither aggressively long nor rashly short.
Speaking of the energy indicator, the recent stock market trading atmosphere is slightly light, and the trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting that the market funds are more inclined to adopt defensive strategies in the current environment. From this point of view, the market may fall into a delicate equilibrium in the short term: the upside lacks sufficient volume support, and the downside is limited by the lack of bearish momentum.
In addition, taking into account the upcoming May Day holiday, it is expected that the A-share market will most likely maintain this moderate trend of "no obvious flaws and no outstanding highlights" before the holiday, and the Shanghai Composite Index may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range of 3,000 to 3,100 points. For ordinary investors, such a market environment means that it is more difficult to operate, whether it is looking for short-term trading opportunities or laying out medium- and long-term investments, they need to be more cautious.
Focusing on the upcoming May market, my expectations for the post-holiday market are more pinned on the performance of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, these two tracks represent the frontier areas of the mainland's economic transformation and upgrading, with high growth and innovation, once the holiday can lead a wave of market, will undoubtedly greatly boost the overall activity of A-shares, inject new vitality into the market.
From the perspective of sectors, chemicals, super fungi, and innovative drugs led the gains today, while publishing, military electronics, and ground arms led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, the main inflow of basic chemicals, energy storage and batteries, and the net outflow of Huawei, China Special Valuation and military-civilian integration.
From the index point of view, the Hang Seng Hong Kong-listed biotechnology index, SHS innovative drugs, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical C daily gainers were the first, while Nikkei 225, Aerospace Integration, and CSI Military Industry were the last daily gainers.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average golden cross 10-day, 20-day moving average; MACD indicator death fork, green column expansion, indicator line running below the 0 axis; KDJ indicator death fork spread downward, J value bottomed; BOLL channel opening spread, stock index near the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, as I said before, although the technical side has achieved a breakthrough, but did not open the upper space, today the index has fallen below several important support lines, and is still maintained in a narrow range of shocks.
【Fundamentals & News】
* Vehicle imports from January to March 2024 were 156,000 units, down 4% y/y, and the downward trend continued. (Automotive)
· According to Counterpoint data, China's smartphone sales increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 4.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth. (Consumer Electronics)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global electric vehicle sales to continue to rise, reaching about 17 million units this year, accounting for more than one-fifth of global vehicle sales. (New Energy Vehicles)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.19, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.25, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 25.83, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 42.52, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.69, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.25, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 21.64, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
CSI 300: Recently, the quarterly reports of public funds have been released, which has attracted the attention of many investors. Judging from the data, Huijin has bought so many broad-based ETFs with a total amount of more than 300 billion yuan, which can't help but make me have a strong interest in the CSI 300 index.
The CSI 300 Index, as a large blue-chip index representing China's A-share market, covers companies that have a significant position in their respective industries, and these companies have stable performance and huge market capitalization, which has a significant impact on the trend of the entire market. As a result, the performance of the CSI 300 Index is often seen as a barometer of China's stock market
Judging from the recent trend, the CSI 300 index has shown a relatively stable trend, with the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry has picked up, and the economy is steadily repairing under the pull of exports and manufacturing. In addition, with the continuous introduction and implementation of policies, the market's confidence is gradually increasing, which is undoubtedly a good thing for the long-term trend of the CSI 300 Index. I think the CSI 300 Index is an investment direction to watch at the moment.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Ready to get off: 50AH, Hong Kong market, China General Internet.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.