Whether we admit it or not, we have half a foot in a new and unknown world.
In the 20s of the last century, the economist Nikolai Kondratiev proposed the Compo cycle. According to his observations, capitalist economic life has been growing and developing in a 60-year cycle, going through four stages: upswing, boom, recession, and depression.
History is not simply repeated, but it rhymes with the same rhyme. The Oriental Lion, which once created a miracle of economic growth, has also reached the moment of Taoguang's obscurity. In the middle of the cycle, only by recognizing our position can we understand the magnificent changes in the vast land under our feet and understand the life choices made by people in different eras.
Therefore, the Southern Weekend Center for Urban (Regional) Studies has launched the "Ideal City List 2023", which uses quantitative data to describe China's "ideal city" for the fourth consecutive year, trying to get a glimpse of the subtle trends in the urban competition pattern and observe the subtle changes in people's definition of "ideal city", so as to make discoveries and provide guidance.
The list continues to focus on 57 key cities in China, covering four dimensions: living comfort, citizen gravity, public space experience and citizen treatment.
The results of the data have profound immediacy: the fluctuation and decline of housing prices have led to the frequent occurrence of urban living comfort rankings, the "K-shaped" differentiation of consumption has led to the intensification of the Matthew effect of urban public space experience, the efficiency of investment in public services such as education and medical care has generally decreased due to financial constraints, and the accumulation of resources as driving factors of urbanization has made provincial capitals a super-optimal choice for population mobility.
Regional trends
From a regional point of view, the eastern cities are still performing well, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Guiyang and other eight inland provincial capitals have improved their rankings, and the inland "C8" alliance has joined hands to challenge the "eastern pioneers";
Shanghai is the first to surpass Beijing's first-tier cities
The winner of the list is, to some extent, the best that China's cities can do at the moment.
On the track of "ideal value", Guangzhou and Shenzhen may have moments when they are surpassed by rising stars such as Hangzhou, but there is no suspense in the order of the north and the top. But in the new list, Shanghai surpassed Beijing for the first time.
Shanghai excels at public space experiences. In the indicators of measuring consumption space and cultural space, the number of shopping malls and cinemas in Shanghai is the highest in 57 cities. Beijing's public libraries have the highest per capita book collection, followed by Shenzhen and Shanghai.
Beijing is good at treating its citizens. The city leads the city in many indicators, such as the ratio of primary and secondary school students to teachers, the number of "double first-class" schools, the per capita financial investment in education, the number of 1,000 practicing (assistant) physicians, and the number of top 100 hospitals. Whether it is the availability of resources per capita or the agglomeration of high-quality resources, Beijing has incomparable advantages.
From the perspective of the main body of public service supply, shopping malls and cinemas are mainly the spontaneous supply of market forces based on the principle of supply and demand, while the performance of education, medical care and other indicators is more dependent on the intervention and allocation of administrative forces.
For the first time, Shanghai surpassed Beijing, which can be said to be a victory for multiple sources of supply over a single government supply, and a victory for market forces over administrative forces. This also inspires more city leaders to further encourage multiple market entities to participate in supply in many fields such as science, education, culture and health, consumption and life, and reasonably play the effect of the "invisible hand".
Guangzhou is better than living comfort. This is the only first-tier city that has escaped the "curse" of the penultimate in living comfort, and while maintaining the advantage of high income, the housing pressure is even less than that of new first-tier cities such as Hangzhou.
Shenzhen is better than the gravitational value of citizens. From 2012 to 2022, Shenzhen's permanent population increased by 5.7 million in the past ten years, ranking first in the country in terms of growth rate. However, from a cross-sectional perspective, Shenzhen's permanent population decreased by 19,800 in 2022. This is the first time that Shenzhen's population has experienced negative growth since its establishment in 1979 44 years ago. We are in the midst of a great change in our time.
The four cities in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen correspond to the four sub-lists of the ideal city, each with its own strengths, representing the four forms of the "ideal city" that are real, touchable and achievable in China at this stage. At the same time, more "ideal cities" are brewing and taking shape in China's vast inland areas.
The eastern cities are dazzling, and the inland 8 cities are fierce in grabbing "C".
More than half of the top 15 cities on the list are from the eastern region, and are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.
The conclusion is not unexpected. Relying on the advantages of location and first-mover policies, the eastern region generally has perfect infrastructure and rich spiritual and cultural life, forming a distinctive governance model and urban style.
When we look away from the dazzling east, we will find another gratifying phenomenon: the "ideal value" of inland cities has generally risen, and it is showing a strong impact energy on eastern cities. Among them, Chengdu continued to improve on the good result of 9th place in 2022, Wuhan improved 3 places to enter the top 10 for the first time, Zhengzhou improved 6 places to enter the top 15 for the first time, Shenyang improved 1 place and was only one step away from the top 15, and Chongqing and Guiyang both improved their rankings significantly.
In addition to the eastern cities, a total of 8 cities entered the top 30 in the overall ranking and improved their year-on-year rankings, namely Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming, Guiyang and Wuhan. Just like the "C" word obtained by the geographical coordinates of these eight cities, the inland "C8 Alliance" is showing a strong trend of "grabbing C".
The evolution of the "C8 Alliance" is mainly due to the outstanding performance of population gravity and citizen treatment. On the one hand, inland provincial capitals meet the main needs of people "close to home, earn money and have a life", and because of their high cost performance, they have become a "super-selective advantage" for population mobility; on the other hand, provincial capitals (municipalities directly under the central government) have stronger resource allocation capacity and higher efficiency in public services such as medical care, education and greening.
The "C8 Alliance" covers major cities in the Northeast, Central, and Western regions. Among them, Shenyang ranks 16th, the trend of population return to Northeast China has appeared, and the banner of Northeast revitalization is swaying; Zhengzhou ranks second in the gravitational list of citizens, and the strength and gravitational force of the province with a large population in central China cannot be underestimated; Kunming, Guiyang and other low-key southwestern provincial capitals are showing alternative urban charm with their unique urban landscapes and folk customs.
It should be pointed out that Changsha is not in the inland "C8 Alliance". In 2022, Changsha ranked sixth, second only to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities, and there is more pressure to improve the rankings. However, as an important fulcrum of central cities, Changsha is still a sample city worth learning from by virtue of its consistent advantages of "low housing pressure and excellent living experience".
The return of the population has accelerated, and the "ideal" upgrade of the three eastern provinces
The agglomeration of population forms cities, and the synergy of cities gives rise to urban agglomerations.
Let's zoom in on the relationships between cities from a number of individual cities. The equilibrium of the Yangtze River Delta has once again been confirmed. Cities of all tiers have performed well: the megacities of Hangzhou and Nanjing, the I-type cities of Suzhou and Wuxi, and Shaoxing, which has a permanent population of just over 5 million, all rank at the top of the list.
The Pearl River Delta region, driven by the "dual centers", has appeared as the "third core" in the evaluation of the ideal city in 2022. However, due to the adjustment of public transport indicators, Zhuhai's ranking has dropped this year. Foshan may become a strong contender for the "third core". In 2023, the Guangzhou metropolitan area plan will be promulgated, and the city-to-city integration of Guangzhou-Foshan will become a key word. The upcoming "Pearl River Delta Hub (Guangzhou New) Airport" is planned to be settled in Foshan, which will undoubtedly add another boost to the improvement of the energy level of Guangzhou-Foshan pole.
While the Pearl River Delta is looking forward to the future and aiming to win, the three eastern provinces 3,000 kilometers away are also imagining a beautiful blueprint for regional revitalization.
Imagination is not unfounded. Shenyang stood one step away from the top 15 of the overall list, with good performance in terms of living comfort and treatment of citizens; in addition, Dalian rose six places to enter the top 30 for the first time; Changchun rose 14 places, and Harbin, which had just been hot for half a winter, also improved. It can be said that in the comprehensive evaluation of citizens' livable experience, the three eastern provinces have achieved a comprehensive upgrade in the "ideal value".
In the research team's view, the explosion of urban cultural tourism may still be difficult in the transformation of the chain from "flow" to "retention", but the improvement of livability value is a practical conclusion that has been tested many times to promote population return and urban development.
From this point of view, the three eastern provinces should further adjust the economic structure, improve and enrich the talent policy, improve the efficiency of the allocation of basic public service resources such as medical care, education, and culture, and improve the livable attributes of the city in many aspects.
correlation analysis
The next step in understanding "what is the trend" is to ask why, what factors are influencing the level of the "ideal value" of the city?
In order to answer this question, the research team introduced external data from three dimensions: population size, economic scale, and businessability value, and analyzed the correlation with the ideal value of the city to observe whether and how the three affect the livability attribute of the city.
A large city is more ideal for living than a large city
At present, it seems that returning to the small county town has become a trend. But is Ayutthaya really unhappy?
The answer is no. The list data shows that in 2022, 10 of the 16 cities with a permanent population of 10 million will be in the top 15. There are many people and it is livable, and the big city may be more able to keep the small fortune in the heart.
Happiness is an everyday perception of an ordinary life. It includes: whether the material foundation is solid, whether the spiritual life is abundant, whether the scientific and educational resources are of high quality, whether the rental price is affordable, and whether the transportation is convenient......
It's hard to find a city that can answer all of these questions in the affirmative. To a certain extent, the city is also a resource, and the relationship between supply and demand determines the difficulty of obtaining resources. When we choose the "ideal city", we are making a series of value judgments.
The list rejects the free will and inclination of individuals, and provides an objective result of comprehensive evaluation: the data shows that there are still many people who can live in large cities, and big cities can also have the "small fortune" of life.
This is because the larger the urban population, the stronger the ability to allocate resources and the more adequate public service products are provided. A simple example is that an urban area with a permanent population of more than 3 million people who meet both economic and financial conditions is eligible to apply for the subway.
In the early stages of urbanization, the massive influx of people led to many urban diseases. However, with the refinement of urban governance, problems such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion have been greatly improved, and large cities have increasingly shown the advantages of efficient resource allocation.
In addition, in the long run, the trend of population agglomeration in large cities will continue to strengthen. According to Zipf's law, the population of the most populous city in a region is usually twice the population of the second most populous city and three times the population of the third most populous city. The "city-first principle" is in line with economies of scale and agglomeration, but it has also been argued that it will undermine national cohesion and social equity. For now, Beijing and Shanghai are advocating the disintegration of the central urban areas, but the general trend of population agglomeration in close proximity to provincial capitals will not subside in the short term.
The city of trillions is divided, and the city of industry is trapped
In 2022, 14 of the 24 cities with a trillion GDP are in the top 15 on the list. The last 10 trillion cities are ranked 18-47, with a large difference. Cities with trillions of GDP show an obvious trend of "ideal value" differentiation.
Among the 10 trillion-yuan cities that are relatively backward, there are ordinary prefecture-level cities such as Dongguan and Quanzhou, as well as municipalities directly under the central government such as Tianjin and Chongqing, as well as provincial capitals such as Hefei and Fuzhou, and the city levels are different. In other words, the root cause of differentiation may not be the difference in resource allocation capacity, but the concept and direction of public resource investment.
Industrialization is the main driving force for urbanization in mainland China. At present, the modern service industry is replacing traditional industries and becoming a new driving force for urbanization in the second half.
From an industrial point of view, the Ten Cities are not a "latecomer" in industrial transformation. On the contrary, Dongguan and Hefei are all "model students" of industrial iteration and upgrading. Taking Dongguan as an example, Dongguan has always been at the forefront of China's manufacturing industry, from OEM light industry to strong equipment manufacturing, electronic information industry, and then to the high-end technology industry of digital "intelligent" manufacturing.
However, from the perspective of urban fine governance, the ten cities do have some room for improvement, and generally perform poorly in the two indicators of public space and citizen treatment. Although Dongguan's consumption space has improved, the value of citizens' treatment is too low, which has lowered the overall score.
The above-mentioned industrial cities should change the concept of urban development, pay more attention to people-centered urbanization, pay attention to people's better life experience, and make more efforts to improve people's life and well-being such as science, education, culture, health, health and environmental protection.
Shanghai: "Cats and Dogs Cute Pets" hand-painted graffiti wall unveiled on Wuding Road (Visual China/Photo)
How to balance livability and business?
Finally, in the correlation analysis of external factors, we focus on the "livability value" and "business-friendly value" of the city.
The "Ease of Doing Business" is derived from the 2023 List of Business-friendly Cities to evaluate the friendliness of a city to entrepreneurs setting up factories and starting businesses, while the "Liveable Value" is derived from the 2023 List of Ideal Cities to evaluate the friendliness of a city to the life experience of its citizens.
The relationship between business-friendly and livable should be a virtuous circle of coordination and mutual promotion. If it is suitable for business, the market is active, with many suppliers and employment opportunities, and citizens can enjoy more choices in terms of job opportunities and life experience, while if it is suitable for business, citizens have a high quality of life, high-quality talents gathered, and the consumer market is broad.
The data comparison shows that the top-ranked cities are relatively capable of achieving balanced development of the two, such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, etc., the rankings of the two indicators are slightly different but match as a whole, but most of the cities show the phenomenon of bias.
Lhasa, Shaoxing, Nantong, Changchun and other second- and third-tier cities have a livable value much higher than a business-friendly value. The supply of public services in these cities is relatively good, but the indicators of the business-friendly environment such as scientific and technological innovation and human resources are weak. Such cities should strengthen the construction of urban infrastructure, increase investment in talents and science and technology, actively lay out forward-looking industries, and seize the opportunity in urban competition.
In the industrial cities mentioned above, such as Tianjin, Hefei, Dongguan and Xi'an, the business-friendly value is generally higher than the livable value. The region has a strong industrial foundation, mature industrial chain, supply chain and talent chain, which is suitable for the growth and expansion of enterprises, but there is still a shortage in the supply of high-quality living resources for citizens. Such cities should further give full play to their business-friendly advantages and explore the liberalization of the market supply of public services.
Recommendations for action
Two increases, one reduction, and one leveling to improve the quality of public services
1. Increase residents' income. Increasing employment opportunities and thus incomes increases people's certainty about the future. Faith is something more precious than gold.
Second, increase the degree of freedom of market supply. Under the guidance of the government, multiple entities are encouraged to participate in the supply of public services, and believe in the ability of the market to allocate the dynamic balance of supply and demand.
Reduce the cost of living for residents, especially the pressure on housing. While optimizing land supply, we should actively innovate housing supply models and strengthen the construction and supervision of affordable housing and talent housing.
Equalize the disparity in the access to public services between migrants and migrants. Focusing on the overall situation of the whole country, establish a regional coordination mechanism for basic public services for the floating population, and solve the problem of equalizing basic public services for the floating population.
Make proper use of network traffic to empower urban development
In recent years, Jiangmen, Zibo, Harbin, Tianshui, and Kaifeng have beaten drums and spread flowers, and stories of urban explosions have emerged one after another. The "going viral" of social networks has made the visibility of the lucky city increase rapidly, which is beneficial to the development of the city.
However, network traffic is a double-edged sword, and the best value is when it is used wisely. In addition to thinking about how to convert traffic into retention, the lucky ones also need to deal with the following two sets of balance relationships:
The first is the balance between citizens and tourists enjoying urban space. Generally speaking, in the short term, citizens will play a sense of ownership and consciously give in to the good travel experience of tourists. However, in the long run, the government should also improve the relevant regulations to balance the different interests of foreign tourists and local citizens as much as possible.
The second is the balance between fragmented labels and the connotation of urban character. Epidemic is characterized by wide dissemination, at the cost of weakening information. The rulers should "rub" the heat, take the initiative to promote the spiritual and cultural products rich in the unique connotation of the city, and achieve the optimal solution of heat, speed and depth.
Observe the needs of the focus and lead the urban renewal
Between the old and the new, it is not broken or standing. Since 2021, the "first year of urban renewal", people's understanding of this concept has become more and more profound, and urban renewal has also taken on more and more diverse goals and forms in practice.
As a national strategy, urban renewal is one of the means to refine the governance of cities. City leaders should make good use of this opportunity to reface, understand the plight of the focus in real life, and build an age-friendly city based on the material and spiritual needs of different groups such as the elderly, women, children, and young people at different stages such as birth, singleness, marriage, childbirth, and old-age care.
Everyone can feel love and happiness in the city, and this is the ideal city.
• "Ideal City" Research Group, Urban (Regional) Research Center, Southern Weekly
Curator: Dai Chunchen
Co-ordinator: Guo Qianqian
Research team: Chunchen Dai, Qianqian Guo, Dengjiang Shi, Jing Li, Runzezi Li, Qiuhong Zhang
Southern Weekly researcher Guo Qianqian
Editor-in-charge: Dai Chunchen