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As of the 24th, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 9091.2 yuan/ton, the weekly price fell 2.06%, and the domestic 0# diesel price was 7452.4 yuan/ton, the weekly price fell 1.58%.
Domestic 92# gasoline price chart
Domestic 0# diesel price chart
Cost side: geopolitical relations eased Crude oil prices fell slightly
Recently, crude oil prices have fallen slightly, as of the 24th, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was $82.81 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $88.02 / barrel. The cost price has fallen, which has brought some negative effects to the domestic gasoline and diesel market.
The crude oil market was slightly lower, mainly due to the flattening of conflict risk premiums. On the one hand, the risk of conflict in the Middle East has decreased, and the market expects that the possibility of escalation of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports has also decreased. As this concern in the market eased, the supply of international oil prices dissipated, which flattened the risk premium of crude oil to a certain extent. On the other hand, the Fed's signals to the market have caused widespread concern among investors that the rate cut cycle may not come so soon. Affected by this, the international oil price market has declined, and the cost side has weakened the support for the domestic refined oil market.
Supply side: Some units were overhauled and refinery operations declined
Recently, some large refining and chemical units in East China and Northeast China have entered maintenance, the load of some refineries in North China has decreased, and the operating rate of main refineries has decreased. Although the volume of refining and maintenance coexist, the profit of refining still affects the production enthusiasm of refineries, and the average operating rate of Shandong refining is about 60%, and the operating load of local refineries remains low. The slight decrease in the supply side has a certain supporting effect on the price of refined oil, and the downward space of the local refining gasoline and diesel market is limited.
Demand side: pre-holiday procurement is less than expected, and the market trend is suppressed
In terms of gasoline, the May Day holiday is approaching, but the middlemen are not active in procurement, coupled with the high price of gasoline, the gasoline market is slightly lower this week. In terms of diesel, the operating rate of outdoor projects has not changed much, the logistics and transportation have been relatively normal, and the demand for diesel has not changed much. However, due to the increase in the demand for refined oil in Asia in the early stage, the export volume of gasoline and diesel rose sharply in March, and the increase in export volume boosted the domestic refined oil market price, which suppressed the decline of refined oil to a certain extent.
Market outlook: At present, the environment of crude oil is more complex, and the performance of oil prices is also more anxious. Macro and demand have suppressed oil prices in the short term, and the space for oil prices to continue to rise is limited, but geopolitical risks have not been lifted, and gasoline demand is expected to rise due to the start of the North American driving season, which will support crude oil prices. Domestically, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of short-term refineries, but with the advent of the small long holiday, residents' travel will increase, coupled with the increase in temperature and oil consumption, the demand for gasoline has improved, and the gasoline market has an upward trend in the later period.