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Price action
Recently, the domestic POM market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the spot price has bottomed out and risen in a narrow range. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of April 24, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12,650 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2% from the price level on April 15.
Cause analysis
Raw materials:
The domestic methanol market has recently risen in a narrow range, and the current fundamental contradiction is not large. Although the company's equipment is at a high level, and the downstream has a certain resistance to high prices. However, the position of social inventory is low, and the market atmosphere in the early stage is acceptable. At present, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market price will be dominated by short-term consolidation.
On the supply side:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has declined, and the current overall load has decreased by about 9% to 71% due to the maintenance arrangements of Tangshan Zhonghao and Yankuang Luhua in the early stage. The output was reduced simultaneously, and the inventory of the enterprise was partially digested. Some manufacturers have callback pricing operations, coupled with the rise in the price of the outer disk, the overall supply pressure has eased, and the supply side has increased the support for POM spots.
On the demand side:
Recently, the stock situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises is average, and most of them just need to take goods to maintain production. The consumption level continued to be weak in the early stage, and the main logic of the factory still maintained the digestion of inventory. Towards the end of the month, traders have profit-making operations, and the trading atmosphere in the market is difficult to say smooth. Overall, the demand side has not supported the spot price of POM well.
Forecast for the future
Recently, the POM market trend stopped falling and rose after finishing up. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has declined, and there is still an expectation of decline, the pressure on the supply side has been eased to a certain extent, and the pricing of manufacturers may rebound in a narrow range. The follow-up of downstream consumption remained weak, and there was no obvious release of pre-holiday stocking. At present, there is a long and short entanglement between POM supply and demand, and it is expected that the short-term market may be deadlocked.