In March, our fifth domestic passenger aircraft C919 was delivered to China Eastern Airlines and started a test flight, and the previous 4 were also received by China Eastern Airlines, at this time, everyone found that the last C919 was delivered in December 2022, and this C919 has passed about a year and a half since the first C919 was delivered to China Eastern Airlines.
You must know that when the first flight of C919 was successful, the whole network was saying that the orders for C919 reached thousands of flights. More than a year has passed, how did it take to deliver the fifth plane? COMAC's production capacity can't keep up, or is there something wrong with production in some links? Will the order not be completed?
Will COMAC be built for 250 years?
As soon as some big clevers said that the production capacity of C919 was low, they began to calculate blindly. They say that the C919 is built an average of 4 planes a year, so even if the order of 1000 planes is completed, it will not take 250 years to complete all of them, in fact, we can't count it.
Speaking of C919, we have to mention its manufacturer - COMAC. It stands to reason that if we want to understand the production capacity of a company, we can pick up its other product lines, and the author does this, but the author is stupid and can't see it at all!
Because fundamentally, COMAC is a young company that was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. We can say that it was founded to build C919. Because of the 07 year, the State Council approved the establishment of a major special leading group for large aircraft.
In 08, the State Council established COMAC, and C919 was also established that year, which is the origin of the establishment of COMAC. So why can't you see it? It's because there are two product lines of COMAC, one is the C919 we are familiar with, and the other is ARJ21, some people will say that there is not ARJ21, can't you look at the production capacity of ARJ21?
In fact, the author has also considered this issue, but ARJ21 and C919 are completely different two buddies, and there are significant differences in their definitions, uses, aerodynamic layout, and passenger capacity.
The ARJ21 is a regional airliner, while the C919 is a mainline airliner, which is mainly used for shorter routes, connecting routes between small and medium-sized cities or regional airports and large hub airports. Mainline airliners are used for long-distance international or domestic routes, connecting routes between major cities.
So there is a big difference between the two in terms of design. With a maximum capacity of 90 passengers, the ARJ21 has a relatively short fuselage and a smaller wingspan, resulting in fewer seats and a shorter route, which is relatively easier to manufacture.
The C919 is a mainline airliner with a capacity of 190 passengers. It has a longer fuselage, a larger wingspan, a high maximum take-off weight and cruise speed. And with a strong emphasis on range, passenger capacity, fuel efficiency and comfort, these points need to be integrated into a single aircraft, which is more difficult to build than a regional airliner.
However, the delivery of the ARJ21 is not completely without reference significance, since 2015, the first ARJ21 regional airliner was delivered to Chengdu Airlines, officially entering the market operation. Up to now, ARJ21 has been delivered to 8 customers, 400 routes have been opened, more than 140 navigable cities have been opened, a total of 117 aircraft have been delivered, and 673 aircraft have not been produced.
From 15 to 24 years, there is an interval of 9 years, an average of 13 aircraft are built every year, but you can't look at it that way. In 2015, it delivered the first, in '16 it delivered the second, in '17 it delivered two, in '18 it delivered six, and in '20 it delivered 23 in a single year and 35 in '22.
In fact, we can see that the average number of deliveries from the current total number of deliveries is actually unscientific, because after the product line matures, the output is exponentially increased, and what we will see is that the first few years are not high, but the output after that will be a small explosion.
In fact, having said so much, the production capacity of COMAC is still unclear. Don't worry, let's take a look at its "factories" again.
Low production capacity of C919?
Why do you say "factories", because the two aircraft of COMAC can not be produced by one factory, because the screws and seats on the aircraft must be produced by COMAC itself. Therefore, we need to know the production capacity, which is not explained by a simple data. Their production involves multiple components and systems and requires a wide range of expertise and equipment.
The C919 is COMAC's first large passenger aircraft that meets international airworthiness standards, and its production requires a large assembly line and advanced manufacturing processes. As a regional jet, the ARJ21 also requires a dedicated production line and manufacturing equipment. The production of aircraft is not limited to COMAC's own factories, but also relies on a large number of suppliers and partners.
These suppliers may be located in different parts and regions at home and abroad and are responsible for the production of various components and systems, and it is often the case that airlines commission different parts from different suppliers to be assembled at the final assembly plant. At present, it can be said that Shanghai is becoming the center of the mainland's civil aviation aircraft industry in the future!
COMAC's Shanghai Pudong base has launched a large jet industrial park project that is expected to be worth more than 200 billion yuan by 2035. Covering an area of 24.7 square kilometers, this aerospace zone industrial park is located in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, close to Shanghai Pudong International Airport.
In addition to COMAC, Pudong has also attracted more than 200 upstream and downstream enterprises in the civil aviation industry. For example, GE Aviation, a subsidiary of General Electric, supplies engines for COMAC's ARJ21 and C919, and has set up a support center in Pudong to support test flights, maintenance and repair of domestically produced aircraft.
Of course, the final assembly base of the C919 is also in Pudong, and COMAC has established an assembly manufacturing center in Pudong New Area to assemble its C919 large passenger aircraft and ARJ21 regional jets. This final assembly manufacturing center is one of the core factories for the production of both aircraft, with advanced production equipment and processes.
Therefore, to calculate the production capacity of C919, it is necessary to focus on the production capacity of the final assembly manufacturing center. The final assembly manufacturing center is the heart of aircraft assembly and has a direct impact on the final production of the aircraft. So in order to calculate the capacity of C919, we need to consider the final assembly cycle.
That is, the time it takes from the beginning of assembling an aircraft to the completion of assembly. This cycle includes the time for various assembly steps, such as fuselage assembly, wing installation, interior assembly, etc. But that's not all, you have to debug after installation, right? After debugging, you have to test, right? And then it's time for the actual delivery.
Although Zhang Yujin, vice president of COMAC, said in an interview that the production capacity will reach 150 aircraft in the next five years, he did not say whether it will reach 150 aircraft per year or 150 aircraft in five years.
At present, because the C919 is a newly developed model, the delivery volume is too small, and the specific production capacity of the C919 cannot be obtained after many investigations, but one thing is certain, it is completely brainless to say that the C919 of the 1000 order of COMAC will be built for 250 years. It's really going to the best of everything to black China, and this yin and yang weirdness makes the author laugh angrily.
For example, if you find a company to place an order, and the other party says yes, we will deliver the goods to your grandson's grandson in 200 years, do you think this is possible? Are those companies that place orders stupid? Playing with tens of billions of dollars? After 200 years, buy a 200-year-old obsolete model?
Which new aircraft is not produced to gradually increase production capacity? Through continuous technological improvement, production process optimization and equipment upgrades, the production efficiency will be gradually increased to meet market demand. There will be some challenges and adjustments in the initial stage, but with the accumulation of production experience and the maturity of technology, the production capacity will definitely be gradually increased.
Since we don't know the specific production capacity of COMAC, let's take a look at the model that is the target with him, from the beginning to maturity, and the change in production capacity.
A competitor to the C919
There are only two long-established aircraft manufacturing companies, one is Boeing of the United States and the other is Airbus of Europe. The C919 is benchmarked against its Boeing 737 and Airbus A320.
The history of the Boeing 737 dates back to 1967, when the first 737-100 aircraft took to the skies for the first time. The original 737-100 was a compact aircraft with a length of only 28.65 meters and a typical two-class capacity of 85 passengers, with an export version of the 124-passenger model.
Over time, Boeing has continued to improve and expand the 737 family, introducing a range of variants, including the 737-200, 737 Classic (300/400/500), 737 Next Generation (NG) (600/700/800/900), and the latest 737 MAX family.
In terms of production capacity, the production capacity of the Boeing 737 has gradually increased. In the case of the 737 Next Generation (NG) family, a total of 7,109 737NG aircraft were delivered as of February 2020. According to the production plan, the production rate of the 737NG family is aimed at completing 38 aircraft per month, which means that 456 737NGs are in production each year.
But the original 1967 version of the 737-100 had only 30 units, and it was built from 1964, 30 were built in 4 years, and then the 737 was remodeled and the product line was mature, although the commercial production of the 737NG series ceased in 2019, during its production, an average of hundreds of aircraft were delivered each year.
And the European Airbus on the east coast of the United States Ocean can't sit still, and the narrow-body passenger aircraft can't all be accounted for by Boeing, so in 1988 it developed the A320, which was 21 years later than the 737, but it is understandable to say that it is the last, as of April 2021, the actual delivery of 737 passenger aircraft is 10,681, and the actual delivery of A320 is 9,832.
In fact, Airbus' A320 project was launched in March 1984, when Airbus received a total of 96 orders. Air France, the first customer of the Airbus A320 program, signed a "letter of intent" at the 1981 Paris Air Show to order 25 A320 aircraft and was given an option for 25.
It wasn't until 1987 that the first one landed, in fact, at the beginning, the production capacity of the A320 was not large, because the total order was there, and no one bought it if it was built more, and the technology at that time was also there. However, with technological advancements, product line maturation, and facelifts, the A320 now has an official production rate of 45 aircraft per month, which has remained unchanged since the end of 2021.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that the competitors of C919 have been polished for decades until now, the product line is extremely mature, and they are also aircraft manufacturers that have existed for a hundred years.
At that time, the technology could not make their aircraft have the same quality as today's commercial aircraft. But isn't it another kind of unfairness to compare the current Boeing and Airbus with COMAC?
epilogue
It's a mule or a horse, pull it out and slip away. Although it is not yet possible to know exactly the specific production capacity of the C919, it is certain that it is either stupid or bad to simply compare its order volume with production capacity and assert that it will take 250 years to complete the delivery.
The mainland's aircraft started relatively late, but for China's aircraft industry, a late start does not mean that it cannot catch up or even surpass. The author believes that with the continuous development of China's aircraft industry, COMAC will show more strength in the future and will have a place in the international aviation industry.
Resources:
Shanghai Pudong New Large Jet Industry Center, China Business News, 2020
Shanghai Pudong Focuses on Building a Large Aircraft Industry Cluster in the Mainland to Promote the Leapfrog Development of the Aviation Industry, CNR, 2020