U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Shanghai to start his visit to China What is the difference between the two visits?

2024-04-25 14:02

Source: Huanqiu.com

The link has been copied

Font: Small Big

At the invitation of Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China from 24 to 26. This is Blinken's second visit to China after last June. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Blinken's visit to China is part of the implementation of the consensus reached at the San Francisco summit between the two heads of state, maintaining dialogue, managing differences, advancing cooperation, and strengthening coordination on international affairs. U.S. media said that Blinken's last visit to China came at a time of high tension between the United States and China, and the visit was intended to stabilize bilateral relations. Now, relations between the two countries have eased, and Blinken's visit to China again shows the Biden administration's efforts to advance engagement with China. On the one hand, it hopes to keep the channels of communication between the two sides open, and on the other hand, in the context of global turmoil, it seeks to strengthen the U.S.-China relationship to bridge some differences and resolve some concerns. A number of American affairs experts told the Global Times reporter on the 24th that judging from the information disclosed by the two sides, there is still a considerable "temperature difference" between China and the United States in the topics and demands that Blinken focused on during his visit, but the two countries have a common "short-term goal" on the issue of maintaining basic stability of relations before the end of Biden's current term. This means that for the time being, the two countries will continue to maintain communication channels through regular exchanges of senior officials to manage basic differences, but there are no small challenges to go further.

What is the difference between the two visits?

On the afternoon of the 24th, Blinken arrived in Shanghai to begin his second visit to China during his tenure. Before his departure, Blinken posted on social media platform X that he would have ongoing, direct face-to-face talks with the Chinese side, which "are critical to making progress on the issues that matter most to the American people and the world." According to the State Department, U.S. officials accompanying Blinken include Assistant Secretary of State Conda, who just returned from a visit to China in April, Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Todd Robinson, Ambassador-at-Large Nathaniel Fick, Ambassador-at-Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy, and Under Secretary of State for Public Foreign Affairs Elizabeth Allen.

The Global Times reporter noticed that compared with Blinken's first visit to China during his tenure in June last year, this time the atmosphere and arrangements are different. Judging from the wording, the last official announcement of the Chinese side was that the visit was "agreed by both China and the United States", this time it was "at the invitation of Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister of the Communist Party of China", and the Chinese Foreign Ministry also "welcomed" Blinken's visit. In terms of time, the last time it was two days, this time it has been extended to three days. Judging from the itinerary, I only visited Beijing last time, and this time I added a stop in Shanghai in addition to Beijing.

Reuters said on the 24th that Blinken will go to Beijing on the 26th and meet with Wang Yi. U.S. State Department spokesman Miller said Blinken will discuss a range of bilateral, regional and global issues with Chinese officials, including the Middle East crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cross-strait relations and the South China Sea. In addition, Blinken will discuss the next steps based on the consensus reached by the two heads of state last November, including the resumption of anti-drug cooperation, military communication, artificial intelligence, and people-to-people exchanges.

Diao Daming, a professor at the School of International Relations of Chinese University, told the Global Times on the 24th that Blinken's visit is a visit to implement the consensus of the two heads of state in the context of the diplomatic orientation, rudder, and navigation of the two heads of state, and pointing out the general direction of Sino-US relations. Taken together, Blinken's two visits to China since June last year also show a relatively stable interlude, which is conducive to further maintaining the momentum of full communication and stable interaction between China and the United States. Dennis Simon, a distinguished researcher at the Center for Sino-American Studies, believes that the reason why Blinken visited China for the second time in less than a year shows that the United States is also facing many difficulties and challenges. In this context, the United States hopes to maintain a dialogue with China and can work together to solve some of the world's more pressing issues. The United States wants to compete as well as cooperate. The current attempt by the US to find a way to manage the competition between the US and China can at least create an environment in which frank conversations can be conducted.

What the two sides most want to talk about

On the eve of Blinken's visit to China, China and the United States gave separate briefings on their goals and aspirations during the visit. On April 22, the head of the Department of U.S. and Pacific Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China will focus on five major goals during Blinken's visit: establishing correct understanding, strengthening dialogue, effectively managing differences, promoting mutually beneficial cooperation, and jointly shouldering responsibilities as a major country. In addition, China will focus on Taiwan, economy, trade, science and technology, and the South China Sea. According to a U.S. State Department official, Blinken's trip has three main goals: first, to make progress on key issues, second, to clearly and directly communicate concerns about bilateral, regional and global issues, and third, to manage competition responsibly so as not to lead to miscalculations or conflicts.

Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" said on the 24th that from Washington's point of view, among the above three goals, the highest priority is to strive for breakthroughs on key issues. As Russia is making important progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, preventing China from "increasing its support for Russia" is believed to be Blinken's main concern. From China's point of view, "establishing a correct perception" is ranked first, which in Beijing's view is the fundamental crux of the difficulties in Sino-US relations, that is, the United States has a wrong perception of China, and it is the most practical to sort out this issue.

Regarding the "temperature difference" between the issues and goals that China and the United States focus on, Sun Taiyi, an assistant professor at Christopher Newport University in the United States, told the "Global Times" reporter on the 24th that one of the main reasons is that the underlying logic of the foreign policies of the two countries is different. "The U.S. believes that it can suppress China in the high-tech field and threaten China with financial sanctions on the Russia-Ukraine issue to change its position, but it can continue to deepen cooperation with China in areas such as fentanyl, military exchanges, and climate change response, because the two are 'one yard to one yard'. However, he said, China's diplomatic thinking is to "outline and see clearly", and it is necessary to first smooth out the major relations, and only when goodwill is determined at the macro level can specific issues be promoted.

Sun Chenghao, an assistant researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University, believes that although there is a gap in perception between China and the United States, there is a consensus on one point, that is, maintaining the overall stability of China-US relations during Biden's current term is a common "short-term goal" of both sides. On this basis, Blinken's visit to China is expected to play a role in "connecting the past and the next", continuing and implementing the spirit of the summit, and promoting continued exchanges and cooperation at the working level.

"Diplomatic chips" will not have the desired effect

Recently, the interaction between China and the United States has taken on a more complex picture. On the one hand, the interaction between the two sides has been significantly more frequent than last year: since April, a number of senior US government officials have visited China. From 4 to 9 July, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China, and from 14 to 16 July, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the US State Department Conda and White House National Security Council Senior Director for China Affairs Bernaran also met with Chinese diplomats in Beijing. On 16 July, mainland Defense Minister Dong Jun had a video call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the request, which was the first phone call between Chinese and US defense ministers in more than a year.

On the other hand, however, the United States continues to press China step by step on issues such as science and technology, the economy, and the Taiwan Strait. The New York Times said on the 24th that just a few hours before Blinken's plane arrived in Shanghai, the U.S. Senate passed a package of bills involving "aid to Taiwan" and requiring Chinese technology company ByteDance to divest the video social platform TikTok's business in the United States. According to the Associated Press, the passage of the bill will make the already complicated U.S.-China relationship even more tricky.

"Provide 'diplomatic bargaining chips' for Blinken's visit to China", the Wall Street Journal quoted people familiar with the matter on the 23rd as saying that in order to prevent "China's support for the Russian military industry", the United States is drafting sanctions that may cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system. However, just hours after the Wall Street Journal report was published, an unnamed U.S. official released information to Reuters that Washington had preliminary discussions about the sanctions but had no plans to implement them in the near future, and that officials wanted to avoid such actions through diplomatic means. The Russian Satellite News Agency quoted experts on the 24th as saying that the United States usually uses public opinion pressure to seek more space for negotiation before the talks, but this strategy will not achieve the expected results in the meeting with the Chinese side. China will firmly defend its strategic stance and will not be influenced by external public opinion.

Sun Taiyi believes that in the US election year, politicians playing the "China card" is an operation that consumes the least political capital but has great benefits, and presidential candidates, including Biden, will at least be more hostile to China in words, especially those topics that affect the interests of voters in swing states, such as automobiles and steel manufacturing. The U.S. crackdown on China in the high-tech sector is also likely to intensify. "Therefore, the next challenges in the U.S.-China relationship will largely be based on the dynamics of U.S. domestic affairs, especially electoral politics. Sun Chenghao believes that a major risk point facing Sino-US relations this year is what kind of message will be conveyed by the so-called "inaugural speech" delivered by Lai Qingde around May 20, and what kind of actions the United States will make around this time node. The second major risk point is in the South China Sea, and if the United States continues to strongly support the Philippines in provoking China, the situation in the South China Sea and China-US relations will also face greater uncertainty.