The number of bidders for Shanghai brand is declining month by month, what is the reason?

The Paper

2024-04-25 07:09Published on the official account of Shanghai The Paper

The number of bidders for Shanghai brand is declining month by month, what is the reason?

On April 20, the auction results of Shanghai individual quota showed that the total number of auctions was 8,515, and the actual number of participants in the auction this month was 45,071, with a winning rate of 18.9%. In May 2016, the number of Shanghai brand participants once reached 277889, and the winning rate was only 4%.

Since October 2022, the number of Shanghai auctioneers has been declining month by month, and it has been falling for 19 consecutive months. The surging news (www.thepaper.cn) reporter's investigation found that with the continuation of the free green license plate policy (free special license plate quota for new energy vehicles) and the popularity of new energy vehicles, many people who plan to buy traditional fuel vehicles turn to new energy vehicles, reducing the demand for traditional Shanghai license plates (fuel vehicle license plates).

Some experts said that in recent years, the impact of new energy vehicles on the automobile market is very large, the people's demand for fuel vehicles has declined significantly, and the Shanghai brand has gradually lost its scarcity, but also reflects the gradual return of consumers to rationality. ”

At its peak, the number of bidders for Shanghai was more than 270,000

"I took it for the third time, and this time I did. On April 20, Mr. Li, a citizen, was a little excited when he saw the winning bid on the computer. Because in the early years, colleagues or friends around me did not photograph Shanghai cards for several months or even a year or two, and they abounded.

Nowadays, there are also citizens who hesitate to buy new energy vehicles because they have not taken a license plate.

"I didn't win the second auction, try again, if I don't win the auction, I'll buy a new energy car." Ms. Zhang, a citizen, told reporters that the only fuel car in the family is almost ten years old, but it can continue to drive for three years if it is driven less and well maintained. However, this fuel car is a foreign license plate, and Ms. Zhang is worried about the tightening of the traffic restriction policy and wants to take a Shanghai license plate to change the car. Ms. Zhang said that she initially considered selling her petrol car for a new energy vehicle, but she could not install charging piles in the community where she lived, and she had the need to travel long distances by car.

But Ms. Zhang is not obsessed with buying a fuel car, "My friend bought a new energy car, and the electricity bill is more than 100 yuan a month. My fuel car is not often driven, and the monthly fuel cost is thousands of yuan. She admitted that at present, new energy vehicles have a certain temptation for her.

The change in the mentality of the auctioneers is also directly reflected in the number of Shanghai auctioneers every month.

Historical data show that in February 2014, the number of Shanghai auctions was 45,758, with a winning rate of about 16%, in March, the number of Shanghai auctions rose to 61,853, and in April, it soared to 94,241, and the winning rate dropped to 8.7%.

The Shanghai auction boom occurred from 2016 to 2017. In May 2016, the number of participants rose to 277889, and the winning rate was only 4%. In the past two years, the number of auctions has basically exceeded 200,000 every month, and the winning rate is around 5% every month.

For new energy vehicles, the "free license" has lasted for more than ten years

Corresponding to the "hard to find a license" of fuel vehicles is the policy support given by all parties to support the development of new energy vehicles and encourage green travel.

According to Xinhua News Agency, at the end of 2012, Shanghai announced the "Interim Measures for the Pilot Implementation of Encouraging Private Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles", which determined that new energy vehicles that meet the requirements will be issued free of charge. However, at that time, the green license plate was not used, but the form of a special license plate and special section number was adopted, which had a very obvious stimulating effect on the entry of new energy vehicles into the market.

Since December 1, 2016, the Ministry of Public Security has taken the lead in piloting the use of special license plates for new energy vehicles in five cities: Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Jinan and Shenzhen. The number plate number of new energy vehicles will be increased by one bit, and the color will be green as the main color, and a special logo will be added.

In 2018, the number of people participating in the Shanghai auction began to decline. On February 1 of that year, the "Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai" came into force. The measures stipulate that if consumers purchase new energy vehicles for non-operation and there is no new energy vehicle registered in the city under the name of individual consumers, the city will continue to issue free special license plates for new energy vehicles under the principle of total control of non-commercial passenger cars. For new energy vehicles that use special license plates, a one-vehicle-one-license system is implemented. This means that if you buy a new energy vehicle, you can get a "green card" for free without participating in the auction.

With the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry and the continuous support of the free license card delivery policy for many years, the number of Shanghai license auctions has gradually declined, falling below the 200,000 mark, and there will be a rebound in 2021. Since October 2022, the number of auctions has been declining again, and it has continued to this day. At present, the winning rate of Shanghai brand is about 19%.

From October 2022, the number of auctions has been declining again, and it continues to this day. Data source: Shanghai non-commercial passenger car quota auction official website

New energy vehicles are popular, and the number of vehicles exceeds 1/5 of the total number of vehicles

How many new energy vehicles are there in Shanghai?

Analysis of the Shanghai auto market in December 2023. Source: Shanghai Economic Information Center, Automotive Industry Research Office

According to a report on the official website of the "Passenger Car Market Information Association" from the Automotive Industry Research Office of the Shanghai Economic Information Center in December 2023, as of December 2023, the number of small new energy vehicles in Shanghai has reached 1262718, 24,927 large new energy vehicles, and the total number of new energy vehicles exceeds 1.287 million, accounting for more than 1/5 of the total number of vehicles. According to CCTV, in the first half of April, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in mainland China was 50.39%, surpassing traditional fuel passenger vehicles for the first time.

In terms of the number of new licenses, the "Licensing Situation of the Shanghai Automobile Market in March 2024 and the Consumption Characteristics of the Shanghai Market", which is the same source as the above report, pointed out that from January to March 2024, the total number of licenses in Shanghai was 108924, of which 48,457 were new energy passenger cars, accounting for 44.49%.

Production of automobiles and new energy vehicles in Shanghai in 2022. Screenshot of the WeChat official account of "Shanghai Statistics".

In terms of output value, public data from the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2022, Shanghai will produce 988,600 new energy vehicles, with a total output value of 288.825 billion yuan. In 2023, the output of new energy vehicles in Shanghai will be 1.2868 million units, an increase of 34.4%, with a total output value of 387.63 billion yuan.

Expert: The demand for fuel vehicles has declined, and the Shanghai brand auction has returned to rationality

Pan Shuhong, a deputy to the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress, has long been concerned about the Shanghai auction. He believes that the impact of new energy vehicles on the traditional fuel vehicle market is the main reason for the decline in the number of bidders, "the people's demand for fuel vehicles has declined significantly, and the Shanghai brand has gradually lost its scarcity." In the past, it was necessary to use 'grab', but now it is no longer as 'hard to find a card' as before. ”

Chen Xiaohong, dean of the Transportation Planning and Design Institute of the Architectural Design and Research Institute of Tongji University, believes that the popularity of new energy vehicles is only one reason, "The decrease in the number of bidders for Shanghai license plates reflects the return of consumers to rationality and normality." ”

Chen Xiaohong said that before 2010, the winning rate of Shanghai Shanghai license was about 30%, and the supply and demand were basically balanced, and there would be no people who did not need to buy a car to auction the license. Later, the winning rate decreased, the number of auctions continued to increase, the warning price (limit price) began to appear, people lost expectations, and even panicked, worried that the warning price continued to rise, and did not know when to win the license, so there was a phenomenon of auctioning one or two years in advance, and even the whole family auctioned together. In Chen Xiaohong's view, the current winning rate of about 18% and 19% is a relatively normal data.

The surging news reporter noticed that the rise in oil prices in the past two years has also made more people turn to buy new energy vehicles. In the interview, the reporter found that many new energy vehicle owners mentioned that pure electric vehicles are more economical than fuel vehicles, and at the same time, because they get a free green card, they save the step of taking the card.

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