A few days ago, Xian Xian Finance gave an observation that high-dividend stocks may face a correction and the style of the A-share market is switching, among which the coal stocks in the sector are highlighted.
Looking at the chart, the coal sector started a wave of market in August 2023, with the coal index rising by as much as 48% and refreshing a record high in March 2024.
The stocks with large gains in the range are Shaanxi Coal Industry, Jinkuang Coal Industry, Hengyuan Coal and Power, Xinji Energy, Orchid Science and Technology, Lu'an Environmental Energy, China Coal Energy and other stocks, and most of these coal stocks have doubled in the second half of 2023.
Behind the contrarian rise, in addition to some performance reasons, Xianxian Finance believes that the vast majority of them are related to "speculation", and the logic behind it is that a series of concepts such as "special valuation", "revaluation of central enterprises", "high dividend stocks", etc., have aggravated the speculation of some individual stocks.
As early as October 2023, Xianxian Finance has raised its arms many times and shouted, there has been a problem with the top-down bailout logic, and large institutions have concentrated together, which has aggravated the decline of major indexes, and the 19 phenomenon has directly led to the stampede at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
Just because the crisis has passed does not mean that we do not learn the lessons of history.
Facts have proved that the observation of idle finance is completely correct, and individual stocks have recently had a flash crash, and the emperor's new clothes have been ruthlessly exposed by the market.
A typical case is Orchid Science and Technology, which has risen by as much as 73% since June 2023, and after the disclosure of the first quarter financial report, there was a fall limit on April 23. The reason for this is that Orchid Kechuang's annual performance in 2023 fell by 34.9%, and its performance in the first quarter of 2024 fell by as much as 82.55% year-on-year!
We can't help but ask, who gave it the courage to buck the trend since last year?
The situation is similar for Lu'an Huaneng, with a 44% drop in net profit for the full year of 2023 and another 61.9% drop in the first quarter of 2024, while Lu'an Huaneng's share price has risen by a maximum of 88% in the seven months from August 2023 to March 2024!
Some people may question that when these stocks rise, the decline in performance may not be expected, after all, no one can guess that there will be a "black swan" in performance.
This statement is not good, and it is unceremonious to say that the performance of the entire coal sector in the second half of 2023 is actually not good, which has been reflected in the financial report.
Let's take Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal Industry, which have not yet announced their 2023 annual report and first quarter 2024 financial report, as an example, Jinkong Coal's annual performance in 2022 fell by 34.65% year-on-year, and in the first three quarters of 2023, it fell by 36% year-on-year again, while Jinkong Coal's share price rose by 117% from June 2023 to March 2024!
The net profit of Shaanxi Coal Industry in the first three quarters of 2023 fell by 44.5% year-on-year, and the company's share price rose by 93% from June 2023 to March 2024.
A group of stocks, in the case of serious detachment from fundamentals, rose against the trend, and it is unceremonious to say that the more these stocks rose, the more fierce the major A-share indexes fell during that period.
In the A-share market, a commonplace phenomenon is that once some stocks rise too fast, they will become the object of monitoring, and the practice of floating capital is very unpleasant. Of course, there is no problem with this kind of regulation itself, the problem is that when a certain batch of funds is used by a certain batch of funds to "raise the stock price", it is seriously detached from the fundamentals. And the fact of "disrupting the market" has been formed, which is the excessive concentration of institutions in the group, which directly causes the major indices to fall for no reason, but no one supervises them!
The reason why the major indices fell sharply at which node was because the main institutions had financial advantages, and the pull up of stocks that were separated from the fundamentals directly formed a siphon effect, and other high-quality stocks encountered selling pressure for no reason, and the market panic spread, which in turn caused a stampede.
In other words, even staunch value investors have become devoid of reference during that period.
Once upon a time, the basin of A-share no value investment was buckled on the heads of retail investors, but in fact, institutional investors in the Chinese market are the real-stirring sticks, and the majority of retail investors have no financial advantage and are lambs to be slaughtered.
Therefore, when the market is extremely irrational, or even the "anchor" of value investment is out of order, I can only believe in the way of God, and eventually the market will punish some people.
Coal stocks plummeted, and who hurt in the face, and who hurts who knows.