The dilapidated house and the overnight rain caused the wheat market to deteriorate......
Previously, the author repeatedly elaborated that before the listing of Xinmai, Chen Mai was under too much pressure, and the decline may be the general trend, but I never thought that this decline still exceeded expectations......
In the past two days, in the traditional winter wheat producing areas, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the lower limit of the listed quotation of milling enterprises has reached a new low, and the market has shown a precipitous downward trend, and the price center of gravity has fallen below 1.3 yuan / catty without effort!
Judging from the market feedback, at present, in Shandong, the low price of wheat listed price came to 1.28 yuan/jin, of which, Heze Tianbang and Dezhou developed flour price of 1.28 yuan, and the price of wheat of many enterprises fell to 1.285~1.3 yuan/jin; in Hebei market, the listed price of mainstream wheat fell to 1.295~1.3 yuan/jin; in Henan market, the price of Xinxiang Zhiqing flour fell to 1.275 yuan, and the price of Xinxiang Sifeng fell to 1.29 yuan......
The market is full of mourning, however, there is still no sign of "extinguishing the fire" in the wheat decline, among them, although the rhythm of policy wheat rotation has weakened, but the volume is still loose, and the transaction level has been continuously reduced, the transaction rate has also been declining, and the wheat market is still facing pressure from many parties!
So, what's happening in the market?
The wheat market is bleak, which is inseparable from the phased consumption downturn!
At this stage, due to the increase in temperature and precipitation, the difficulty of flour storage increases, and downstream traders mainly need to replenish goods, the risk of hoarding is higher, and the purchase and sale of flour is sluggish, which directly affects the operating rate of milling enterprises!
In particular, at this stage, there is also greater pressure on the by-products of milling enterprises, the purchase and sale of bran is not smooth, the price is hovering at a low level, and the inventory of some enterprises is not good, which further weakens the performance of the operating rate of enterprises, and some small and medium-sized flour mills have stopped harvesting, and the consumption capacity of raw grain has further declined!
Of course, poor consumption has supported the decline in wheat prices, but the most critical factor may be the concentrated rotation of policy wheat!
As the new wheat market cycle is getting closer and closer, and the market has a consistent judgment on the new wheat yield, which also accelerates the rhythm of the grain depot wheat concentrated rotation, previously, the grain storage single week plan to rotate out of wheat up to 940,000 tons, however, due to poor demand and local grain depots have also increased the performance of wheat rotation, the turnover rate of grain storage wheat rotation has been declining, and the phenomenon of unsold has increased significantly!
However, the market capacity is limited, and the risk of selling pressure before the new wheat market in the grain depot is increasing, which further causes the more wheat to be auctioned, the less positive the policy wheat rotation, which also makes the market's sentiment almost "collapse", and the market is filled with a pessimistic atmosphere......
Although some traders have greater pressure on the inversion of wheat prices, they are more worried about the prospects of wheat, the phenomenon of passive delivery has increased, and the supply of wheat has increased significantly, which has also increased the choice of the main body of demand.
However, the extreme must be reversed, the market has never been unilateral operation of the law, this time the price of wheat fell rapidly, the market or will take time to digest the decline in performance, I personally believe that in the short term, the wheat market or will enter a stable situation, the price of space will be limited!
At present, less than a month before the early wheat market in Hubei Province, some institutions have continuously lowered the expectations of the new wheat opening scale price.
It is reported that in 2024, the purchase price of Xinmaito City will be 1.18 yuan/jin, and it may be difficult to start the "bottom" price this year, and the price of Xinmai will most likely hover around 1.2~1.23 yuan/jin......