China Fund News Jia Zhanying
Editor's note: Recently, the first quarterly report of the fund has been disclosed one after another, and the position adjustment actions and position changes of star fund managers have also become the focus of attention of the people. And behind every periodic report, there are also hidden "investment secrets" of these excellent managers. Fund Jun will continue to update the special topic of the character database [Position Adjustment Wind Vane] for everyone, and decode the changes in the holdings of star fund products and the investment philosophy of their managers.
With the gradual disclosure of the first quarter report of public funds in 2024, the investment trends of star fund managers have been exposed one by one.
According to the first quarterly report, among the four active equity funds managed by E Fund manager Zhang Kun, the overall position remains stable, but with the change in stock price, the ranking of the top 10 heavy stocks has been adjusted.
In the past few quarters, Zhang Kun's top heavy stock has often been alternated by Kweichow Moutai and Tencent Holdings, but in the first quarter of this year, as the stock price of cyclical stocks exploded, CNOOC was promoted to the fund's largest heavy stock for the first time.
Zhang Kun talked about his views on the future market in the quarterly report, and the market's risk appetite has been reduced to a very low level, which is reflected in the high weight of the static dividend yield level when pricing, and the skeptical attitude towards growth, especially the long-term growth of enterprises. However, a necessary condition for a high-quality stock is to have long-term sustainable growth. The current stage of market pricing makes companies with long-term high-quality growth attractive. ”
In this issue of "Rebalancing Wind Vane", Fund Jun will explain in detail the first quarterly report of E Fund Manager Zhang Kun and his rebalancing changes.
There was a slight decrease in the scale of management
Continue to operate with high positions
According to the data, as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative scale of the four funds managed by E Fund Zhang Kun was about 64.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease from about 65.5 billion yuan at the end of 2023.
According to the first quarterly report, E Fund's blue-chip select mixed net value growth rate was 0.91%, and the performance benchmark fell by 1.21% in the same period, which means that it underperformed the performance benchmark by 0.30 percentage points. Except for E Fund Asia Select Equity (QDII), which significantly outperformed the performance benchmark, the other two funds both underperformed the performance benchmark, of which E Fund Quality Enterprise Holding Mixed Underperformance Benchmark for three years was 0.42 percentage points, and E Fund Premium Select Blend (QDII) underperformed the performance benchmark by 1.96 percentage points.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative scale of the four funds managed by Zhang Kun is about 64.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease from about 65.5 billion yuan at the end of 2023.
Judging from the change in shares, the 4 funds under management under Zhang Kun's management will still have net redemptions by all employees in the first quarter of 2024. Among them, E Fund's three-year high-quality enterprise holding has been experiencing net redemption since the opening of daily subscription and redemption in June 2023, while the remaining 3 products have suffered net redemption for 5 consecutive quarters.
Specifically, as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, Zhang Kun's E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Asia Selection, E Fund Premium Enterprise Three-Year Holding, and E Fund Premium Select have been net redeemed for 563 million, 130 million, 264 million, and 37.5965 million respectively.
In terms of positions, the four funds managed by Zhang Kun were similar to the situation at the end of last year, and they still maintained high positions at the end of the first quarter of this year, and all fund positions were above 94% at the end of the first quarter.
Specifically, E Fund Blue Chip Select, the largest of the four funds, has basically unchanged stock positions, all of which are close to the prescribed upper limit. Zhang Kun said in the first quarterly report that E Fund's blue-chip stock position was basically stable in the first quarter, and the structure was adjusted, adjusting the structure of industries such as consumption and medicine.
Similarly, the positions of E Fund Premium Select, E Fund Asia Select, and E Fund Premium Enterprises managed by Zhang Kun were basically above 94% at the end of the first quarter.
As of the end of the first quarter, the positions of the four funds in Hong Kong stocks were basically the same as at the end of the previous quarter, basically between 40% ~ 60%.
The number one heavy stock changed hands
Actively deploy investment in the field of consumer goods
Judging from the top ten heavy stocks disclosed in the first quarterly report, Zhang Kun's position is still stable overall, but with the change in stock price, the ranking of heavy stocks has been adjusted.
From the perspective of industry allocation, the quarterly report shows that the manufacturing industry was 45.58%, an increase of 2.89% from the end of the previous quarter, the financial industry was 4.48%, a decrease of 2.19% from the end of the previous quarter, and the real estate industry was 0.58%. In this way, the manufacturing industry is still the key industry of Zhang Kun's layout.
According to the published quarterly report, in terms of rebalancing holdings, compared with the end of 2023, Zhang Kun's representative fund, E Fund, selected the top 10 heavy stocks in the first quarter of 2024, mainly reducing their holdings, and there has been a change in individual stocks.
Specifically, E Fund's top 10 blue-chip stocks at the end of the period were: CNOOC, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Meituan-W, Shanxi Fenjiu, and China Merchants Bank.
Among them, Zhang Kun slightly reduced his holdings of CNOOC, Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai and China Merchants Bank, and the number of positions fell by 12.06%, 10.14%, 6.23% and 43.47% respectively in a single quarter.
According to the tracking data, Kweichow Moutai has been reduced by Zhang Kun for four consecutive quarters and has now fallen to the fifth largest heavy stock, while CNOOC has become the largest heavy stock for the first time.
On the other hand, Zhang Kun has newly entered the target of Shanxi Fenjiu, and WuXi Biologics, which was originally the ninth largest heavy stock, has withdrawn from the list of the top 10 heavy stocks, which may be directly related to the company's encounter with some policy obstacles last quarter. In addition, although this is the first time that Shanxi Fenjiu has entered the top 10 heavy stocks of E Fund's blue-chip selection, the number of holdings at the end of the first quarter has not changed from the number at the end of 2023.
In addition, in terms of quarterly gains, E Fund's blue-chip selection increased by 0.92% in the first quarter of 2024, which has recorded the best quarterly income in the past year.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the scale of Zhang Kun's other masterpiece, E Fund Premium Select Fund, is 14.385 billion yuan, and the top ten heavy stocks have also seen individual stock changes.
Specifically, similar to E Fund's blue-chip selection, the fund also reduced its holdings in Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and China Merchants Bank, reducing their positions by 5.18%, 9.80%, and 30.07% respectively. Zhang Kun also reduced his holdings in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reducing his position by 12.14%.
It is worth mentioning that although Alibaba fell 6.64% in the first quarter, Zhang Kun still chose to increase his holdings in Alibaba, adding 3.28 million shares of Alibaba in the first quarter, increasing his holdings by more than 18%, Alibaba was also "bought" the fund's third largest heavy stock, while Kweichow Moutai was slightly reduced and withdrew from the top three heavy stocks.
As the share price rose, CNOOC entered the fund's top 10 heavy holdings despite unchanged holdings. In addition, Huazhu Group's share price rose 15.43% in the first quarter, Zhang Kun increased his holdings by 4.5 million shares at the same time, and Huazhu Group also entered the top ten heavy stocks.
In the first quarter, CNOOC also promoted the number one heavy stock of E Fund Asia Select Fund managed by Zhang Kun, which mainly invests in overseas markets, and the second and third largest heavy stocks are Tencent Holdings and TSMC in turn. Although Alibaba gained a slight increase in its holdings, it still retreated to the fourth largest stock due to the decline in its share price.
ASML and Prada, which were previously in addition to E Fund's top 10 Asia selected heavy stocks, were promoted to the top 10 heavy stocks of the fund in the first quarter.
What's more worth mentioning is that Zhang Kun is also actively expanding its investment scope in the field of consumer goods, and Samsonite, which previously only appeared in the 16th largest heavy stock of E Fund Blue Chip Select 2023 Annual Report, entered the top 10 heavy stocks of E Fund Asia Select for the first time in this quarterly report.
The search for medium, sustained growth should not be abandoned
Compared with the previous thousands of words, Zhang Kun's words in the quarterly report have become more and more concise. However, in this year's quarterly report, he more clearly elaborated on his understanding and response to the current capital market.
Looking back on the first quarter of 2024, he pointed out that in the bond market, government bond yields, especially long-term government bond yields, have fallen significantly. In terms of the stock market, there was a clear differentiation in the first quarter, with industries with a high proportion of debt-like dividend assets, such as banks, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal, performing better, while industries such as pharmaceuticals and biology, computers, and electronics performed relatively lagged behind.
Zhang Kun believes that from the performance of long-term treasury bonds and bond-like stock assets, the market's risk appetite has been reduced to a very low level, which is manifested in the high weight of the static dividend yield level when pricing, and the skeptical attitude towards growth, especially the long-term growth of enterprises.
For example, under the simplified model, between 5% dividend yield + 1% growth company A and 3% dividend yield + 8% growth company B, most of the market is more inclined to choose company A at this stage, and such companies also attract a large number of fixed-income capital allocation.
"If we look at the long-term history of the capital market, an important reason why stocks have higher long-term yields than bonds is that stocks have sustainable growth, and the necessary condition for high-quality stocks is to have long-term sustainable growth. "Therefore, we believe that as equity investors, we should always give considerable weight to looking for long-term growth." ”
Zhang Kun said that although in the period of high-quality development, the basic probability of the company's sustained and rapid growth is decreasing, it should never give up the search for medium and sustainable growth, and growth can also be obtained by looking for different subdivision structures.
However, Zhang Kun said that growth must be of high quality, not brought about by extensive management or burning money, and should be achieved with a reasonable marginal return on investment. Therefore, he will pay close attention to the company's ability to control costs, working capital, free cash flow, capital allocation, and the willingness to return to shareholders.
In addition, from the perspective of valuation, Zhang Kun said that in the past three years, due to the continuous revision of the market's long-term growth expectations, the valuation of Class A companies has increased, while the valuation of Class B companies has declined.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the chart data in this article are from Zhijun Technology and Wind data)
Risk Warning: Funds are risky, and investment should be cautious. Past performance of the Fund is not indicative of its future performance. Fund research and analysis do not constitute investment advice or advisory services, nor do they constitute any substantive investment advice or commitment to readers or investors. Please read the Fund Contract, Prospectus and related announcements carefully.