Reading guide: In the development of China's asset management and even wealth management products, the advent of Tianhong Yubao is undoubtedly an important milestone. The success of Tianhong Yue Bao is due to the unique Internet thinking at the product design level and the user traffic brought by Alipay, and also because the interest rate marketization has promoted the explosive growth of fixed income assets.
Under the entrustment of trillions of yuan, Tianhong Fund takes "stable financial management and trustworthy" as its own philosophy, and deeply integrates the pursuit of stable genes into various aspects such as product management, investment research concepts, and business ideas. The ultimate pursuit of stability and reliable quality ultimately leads to the requirements for scientific bond investment.
There is no smooth road in science, after repeated assumptions, analysis and demonstration, giving up Excel, EViews and other analysis software, and introducing python, a tool that is more in line with the needs, Tianhong fixed income team has created a set of rich Tianhong five-cycle model, combining macro schools and trading schools in the field of fixed income, including top-down macro and policy analysis, as well as bottom-up sentiment, position, and investor behavior analysis.
Based on Tianhong's five cycles, they have realized various ideas for the scientific investment of the bond market: first, to establish a comprehensive and objective understanding of the bond market, to break the wrong common sense, to discover the complex relationships and laws hidden behind it, and to derive a reliable investment strategy, so as to make the investment more predictable and replicable. In this process, the use of programming tools for complex quantitative analysis has become a must-have skill. The second is to use a unified research framework to form a professional division of labor and close collaborative investment platform, give full play to the collective strength, get rid of the limitations of a single fund manager, and make the investment research level more reliable. The team operation mode, in turn, requires each fund manager to personally research, directly hit the essence in communication, and realize the efficient transmission of information. The third is to incorporate the time factor of the liability side into the investment research system, and manage the asset and duration distribution of the product portfolio more refined, so that the product can better match the demand for risk and return on the liability side.
Today's investment in the field of fixed income is becoming more and more difficult, how to solve the macro and micro divergence, how to achieve a win-win situation of platform and individual value, how to face a market where macro black swans are constantly emerging, and how to make excess returns in a market where institutions are becoming more and more "volatile...... And so on, these questions plague many people. Through an in-depth interview with the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund, we also believe that we will bring you the answer.
It is realized with the "Tianhong Five Cycles" model
Systematic and team-based investment
Benefiting from the success of Tianhong Yubao in 2013, Tianhong Fund established a fixed income research team with a large number of people in the industry very early. In the early days, when many fund companies only had 3 credit researchers, Tianhong Fund already had 10 members. However, with the development of the times, they also saw two important changes in fixed income investment, which promoted further iteration of the investment system in the future.
The first change is that after 2020, the volatility of the macro economy has decreased, but the frequency has increased, and fixed income investment is no longer a simple open and closed approach. Before 2018, the judgment of the economic cycle and inflation could be the winner or loser of fixed income investment, but after that, the volatility of the economic cycle decreases and the duration of the cycle state is significantly shortened, so the driver of economic growth on the change in bond market yields becomes more complex, and the nuanced observation of economic growth becomes important.
The fixed income team of Tianhong Fund found that the macro economy stabilized in 2016, and the performance of bonds should theoretically be a bear market, but it has been bullish for three consecutive quarters. A similar situation occurred in 2018, when the macroeconomic year was not particularly bad when the bond market reversed.
Bond yields sometimes diverge from macroeconomic trends, also due to the misalignment of the macroeconomic cycle and the monetary policy cycle. The direction of bond yields is not only determined by economic momentum, but also by the central bank's monetary policy. For example, in the second half of 2019, the inventory cycle continued to go up, but bond yields walked out of a downward trend in a loose monetary environment. During this period, the study of institutional behavior can better grasp the granularity of the yield trend.
These major divergences made them realize that there is no longer a "one-size-fits-all" way to do a good job in bond investment every year. As fixed income assets as a whole become larger, the behavior of participants also affects the direction of the market.
The second change, the introduction of new asset management regulations in 2018, has become an important watershed in the field of fixed income investment. Institutional dividends gradually disappeared, and the default of some private enterprises this year also made many fund companies give up credit sinking. In the upstream of fund companies, bank wealth management has also reduced the risk appetite at the credit level. At the same time, yield mining in a downward interest rate cycle has become more refined.
The fixed income team of Tianhong Fund has seen that after the introduction of the new regulations on asset management, the requirements for the investment ability of practitioners have become higher and higher. In the field of fixed income investment dominated by institutional investors, it is necessary to create a multi-angle, systematic and team-based investment framework. Moreover, this framework can take into account the subjective ability of each fund manager, and play a team role by promoting strengths and avoiding weaknesses.
Under the paradigm shift of investment, Tianhong Fund has created a unique "Tianhong Five-Cycle" bond investment model.
Data source: Tianhong Fund
This model solves four levels of problems:
1) A combination of macro and trading schools. When Tianhong Fund sorted out the bond fund managers in the market, it was found that there were mainly two major investment schools: macro and trading. In the past, the two schools of thought communicated in completely different "languages", corresponding to their respective investment cycles and their own strengths. From the objective data, both genres are not perfect, but they also have their own stages of adaptation. In addition, in the downward cycle of interest rates, it is difficult to meet the investment goals of customers by relying on macro-level judgment alone, and more transaction-level thickening is needed. In the "Tianhong Five Cycles", the combination of macro and trading schools is solved through the stratification of investment.
2) Complex responses to a complex world. The fixed income team of Tianhong Fund believes that investing in the world is not a simple road, but needs a system to cope with the changes in the complex world. There are many factors that affect the trend of bonds, and the weights of various factors are different at different points in time. The "Tianhong Five-Cycle" model divides the trend of bonds into macro cycles, policy cycles, institutional behavior cycles, position cycles, and sentiment cycles according to the top-down impact, including the main factors affecting the bond market. At the same time, each layer incorporates a different time dimension. The macro and policy cycles at the upper level affect the long-term dimension, and the institutional behavior, positioning, and sentiment cycles at the lower level affect the short- and medium-term dimensions. Under different time dimensions, the direction of the market is different. This also solves the problem of "fighting" of long-cycle and short-cycle views.
3) Realize the dual portrayal of the winning rate and odds of the bond market. Tianhong fixed income team believes that looking at the bond market from macro and monetary policies is a thing at the level of winning rate, and it affects the direction of the stage. However, the odds and amplitude level need to be provided by a series of indicators in the medium and short cycles, and Tianhong five cycles contain a complete odds system index.
4) Unify individual capabilities into team capabilities. Due to the many influencing factors of bond investment and the different variables at different stages, there is a high demand for team cooperation and investment research platforms. On the other hand, every fund manager and researcher has their own areas of expertise, and how to empower them to empower others with their strengths is a problem that all fixed income investment teams need to face.
Under the framework system of "Tianhong Five Cycles", a specialized division of labor at the research level has been formed, and each fund manager is a researcher, mainly focusing on his own field and empowering others, while other fund managers are empowered in the field that he is not focused on. Under this set of large framework system, the wisdom of all people is gathered to form a model of mutual empowerment and collective combat, and everyone will not have obvious shortcomings in the perception and judgment of all aspects of the market.
Figure: The division of labor and cooperation of fund managers in Tianhong's five cycles
Data source: Tianhong Fund
Tianhong has three major characteristics of the five cycles
Through the communication with the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund, we found that the "Tianhong Five-Cycle" model has several unique features in the specific operation process.
The first feature of Tianhong's five cycles is that it has a rich sense of five levels, grasps short-term and long-term changes at the same time, includes the main influencing factors of the bond market, and has a clear priority relationship and importance weight under different cycles.
The bottom is the sentiment indicator, which is mainly determined by the position cycle of the previous layer, as Zhao Dinglong, head of the short-term bond management team and fund manager of Tianhong Fund, said: "No matter how optimistic the mood is, if the position is full, the mood will not be optimistic." The cycle of the position is related to the behavior of institutional investors at the previous level. Institutional investors increase their allocation, which is a passive position increase. Conversely, bottom-up sentiment cycles lead to active position increases.
In the middle is the cycle of investor behavior. In the behavioral cycle, the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund continues to be divided into two dimensions, one is divided into transactional institutions and allocation institutions according to investor categories, and the other is divided into high-frequency trading and trend trading according to trading style. For example, banks are usually the ones who do the value allocation, and the rural commercial banks are usually the ones who do the residual liquidity allocation, the brokerages are usually the ones who do high-frequency trading, and the fund companies are usually the ones who trade the trend.
Further up is the monetary policy cycle, and the easing and tightening of monetary policy determines the behavior of institutional investors at the next level. The highest level is the macroeconomic cycle, which determines the next level of the monetary policy cycle. These two macro cycles are also used in traditional bond investment. The big changes from the top down will correspond to the big trends from the bottom up.
In addition to the top-down nesting, the balance sheet in this model is also interlocking, with each level having two perspectives, the liability side and the asset side, which are linked to the assets and liabilities of the previous level. For example, the asset side of the position cycle is the position and sentiment, but the liability side is the behavior cycle of the previous layer. In Zhao Dinglong's view, changes in the liability side will directly affect the performance of the asset side, just like if a person is sick or out of work (changes in the liability side), it will also affect his behavior on the asset side.
After dismantling the five influencing factors of judging the bond market, the "Tianhong Five-Cycle" model is not a simple comparison of bearish and bullish weights, nor is it a simple sum after their respective scores, but uses nonlinear changes to guide specific investment decisions, that is, different cycle levels, and the magnitude of its impact is different.
The macro cycle has a larger impact and a longer impact period, while the position cycle has a smaller impact and a shorter impact period.
When there is a contradiction between the signals of the five cycles of Tianhong, it is also possible to have a relatively conclusive conclusion based on the principle that the lower cycle obeys the upper cycle and the closest cycle has the greatest impact.
Ren Ming, head of the credit research department and fund manager of Tianhong Fund, gave an example: "In the first half of 2021, the macro cycle is relatively strong, commodity prices have risen, and real estate sales at the beginning of the year are also good, but the bond market has come out of the bull market. In fact, the core reason for this wave of bond bull market is that the monetary policy has not changed, although it has not been relaxed, but it has not been tightened, which is equivalent to the monetary policy cycle resisting the negative impact of the macro policy on the bond market in a quarter or half a year, and then making the institutional behavior cycle the main contradiction in the stage and getting out of a wave of bull market. Therefore, in the current environment, it is necessary to actively go long in the half-year dimension. ”
The second characteristic of Tianhong Five-Cycle is that it has a very strong objective explanatory power for various phenomena in the bond market, which can avoid wrong common sense, correct many specious views in the market, and accurately portray the specific impact of changes in various factors, so that fund managers have a higher degree of confidence when making investment decisions, so as to better grasp investment opportunities and avoid risks in a forward-looking manner.
For example, some people in the market believe that the RRR cut will drive the rise of A-shares, but in fact, the central bank's RRR cut does not directly correspond to the rise of the stock market, but more after the relaxation of credit conditions, liquidity flows from top to bottom. Ultimately, the performance of specific assets also needs to take into account bottom-up investor behavior and sentiment.
For example, most people in the market believe that credit spreads are mainly related to DR007 or the funding rate, which is determined and led by the central bank, but sometimes this is not the case. In fact, after 2020, credit spreads have continued to compress, because after the real estate market has not recovered, residents' wealth management has continued to enter stable assets.
Understanding and analyzing this kind of capital phenomenon corresponds to a key indicator in the "Tianhong Five Cycles" model: Flow, which has a quantitative perspective and a directional perspective. The water of the Yangtze River will eventually flow to the sea, but which branch in the middle requires not only a high-altitude view of various assets (terrain and height), but also a more microscopic perspective to gain insight and verification.
With the help of Tianhong Five-Cycle, the fund managers of Tianhong Fixed Income team have achieved in-depth and objective insight into the operation of the bond market, rather than vague experience and judgment, which enables fund managers to have a higher degree of confidence in the investment process, scientifically predict the size of the market and allocate reasonable positions.
Peng Wei, head of the interest rate and fund manager of Tianhong Fund, took the 30-year ultra-long bond that everyone has been hotly discussing recently as an example, if there is only the above two layers of macro cycle and monetary policy cycle system, it is difficult to understand why ultra-long bond assets can continue to rise. However, from the perspective of the institutional behavior cycle, the 30-year treasury bond is one of the few varieties with both trading attributes and allocation attributes, and its rise has a solid foundation at the institutional behavior level.
Ren Ming further explained: "Many people will use some long logic of grand narratives such as zero interest rates to explain the rise of 30-year treasury bonds, which is of course no problem, but it is a bit far-fetched and excessive to apply this logic to the 30-year treasury bond market in the first quarter of 2024." Even in a prolonged downward interest rate cycle, there will be some rebound. ”
In the view of Tianhong fixed income fund managers, the main driving factor behind the sharp rise of 30-year treasury bonds is the asset shortage faced by insurance institutions and rural commercial banks.
In the case of insurance institutions, for example, its liabilities are growing rapidly, because the demand for stable assets is very strong after residents do not buy houses. Starting from 2023, as real estate and local debt problems become prominent, insurance institutions will take the initiative to reduce the proportion of non-standard assets.
At the beginning of this year, when the supply of long-term assets was relatively small, the 30-year treasury bonds were sought after by insurance institutions, and there was a resonant rise. After understanding the real reason for the rise of 30-year treasury bonds, Tianhong fixed income fund managers are very comfortable participating in this wave of market, rather than passively chasing the rise based on momentum trading.
For the subsequent evolution, Peng Wei also gave a judgment: "When the insurance allocation plate leaves the market, if the 30-year treasury bond only has trading attributes, it is necessary to observe the price level and position level. For example, when the position level of the fund as a trading order is low, the odds are relatively high, and when the position level is high, especially when the historical high, the odds of going long are very low. ”
With the Tianhong Five Cycle, Tianhong Fixed Income Fund Managers have achieved an objective and comprehensive grasp of the changes in the bond market, in addition to better capturing investment opportunities, they can also predict risks more forward-looking, avoid sharp drawdowns, and achieve evidence-based advances and retreats.
Ren Ming took the bond shock in the fourth quarter of 2022 as an example: "On the surface, the round of bond market volatility was caused by factors such as the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies and the introduction of real estate policies, but the root cause is the fragility of the market itself. Due to the bond bull market in the first three quarters of that year, many bank net-worth wealth management products performed very well, resulting in some low-risk users who originally bought money market funds, and transferred funds to such wealth management products, which are fragile and very short-term liabilities, but at the same time, bank wealth management products began to extend the duration when asset allocation, which formed a dislocation. This is the case at the level of the behavioral cycle. ”
Peng Wei pointed out that in August 2022, the position cycle had already reflected that the market was overcrowded. Yin Liyu, head of the credit bond management team and fund manager of Tianhong Fund, pointed out that the money market funding interest rate rose sharply at that time, but the market did not pay much attention to this matter, thinking that this was a seasonal factor or other disturbance, and the domestic epidemic prevention and control was still underway, and most people thought that the funding rate would not be raised too much. "But we saw that the exchange rate at that time had formed a constraint on monetary policy, because the exchange rate depreciated rapidly to about 7.3, and the central bank's monetary policy was a multi-objective system, with me as the main focus and taking into account overseas. Yin Liyu said.
In the case of resonance of the signal conclusion of the multi-layer cycle, Tianhong fixed income team continued to reduce positions from August to October to avoid risks in advance.
The subsequent market correction is also in line with the prediction of Tianhong's fixed income team. Ren Ming said: "According to our experience, the amount of fund redemption is closely related to the performance of the asset side. When the yield of bank wealth management products is lower than that of money market funds, the user's subscription begins to stop, and when such products perform negatively for several consecutive days, more and more holders will redeem when they find that the product is withdrawn, which in turn exacerbates the market pullback, and after several superpositions, this effect will continue to amplify, and it is this continuous negative feedback that has led to the bond market shock in the fourth quarter of 2022. ”
The third feature of Tianhong Five-Cycle is that it uses a high degree of data quantification to depict the cycle, especially the lower three cycles, from which a steady stream of investment strategies is derived, which is convenient for fund managers to screen out specific strategies that match the duration and income drawdown requirements of the liability side.
For the fund managers of Tianhong fixed income team, Tianhong's five-cycle model is not only a way of thinking for analyzing the bond market, but also an inexhaustible arsenal of practical tools. As mentioned above, it is a front-running strategy to build a position before the insurance funds allocate a large amount of 30-year treasury bonds, and it is a risk-off strategy to reduce positions in advance before the bond market fluctuates in the fourth quarter of 2022.
There are many more such strategies. "Our team will continue to explore and study some interesting indicators in the market and share them with you in a timely manner, so that everyone can develop their own new investment strategy based on this. Zhao Dinglong continued, "After the team has jointly portrayed the state of Tianhong's five cycles, we will also look for some resonance states together, and explore investment opportunities and investment strategies from the resonance state." Of course, for this resonance state, how many positions to give, how much confidence to give, each fund manager has their own choice. ”
It is worth noting that since Tianhong uses hundreds of quantitative indicators to describe the cycle state, it also helps fund managers to look at and use various investment strategies more rationally and avoid the weaknesses of human nature. "I think my own subjective emotions are difficult to become a person who is good at chasing ups and downs, and if there is no objective indicator constraint, I will often fall into internal friction. Relying on Tianhong's five-cycle output of this kind of investment strategy and its implementation, it is a kind of reconciliation with oneself. Zhao Dinglong said.
Incorporate the time factor into the investment system
One of the most important functions in investment is time, but few people can really figure out how to incorporate time as a variable into the investment research system, but the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund has done it.
In this set of models, various influencing factors are distinguished according to the time dimension, which also helps fund managers to better assist their specific investment decisions according to the different durations of the products they manage. The duration (time factor) of different products corresponds to the final investment decision and portfolio construction is also completely different.
In the short term, it is positioning, sentiment and investor behavior that affect positioning, and in the long term, it is the macro that affects it. Incorporating the time element into the investment system can help fund managers distinguish between long-term investments and short-term transactions, and find assets that match their time dimension.
If the managed account holding period is shorter and the ability to bear risks is smaller, it is more necessary to pay attention to the following three levels of changes in the Tianhong five-cycle model; if the managed account holding period is longer and can ignore short-term fluctuations, then it is more necessary to pay attention to the direction of the large cycle.
Peng Wei said frankly that he manages the products that are in debt. The liabilities of such products fluctuate greatly, and it is difficult for users to accept large drawdowns. When making specific investments, it is necessary to look up at the sky (large macro and monetary cycles) and be down-to-earth (lower emotions, transactions, and behavior cycles).
Zhao Dinglong said: "Different types of products have different requirements for product revenue and drawdown control, which can be understood as different constraints. When formulating a product strategy, it can be understood as solving multivariate constraint equations. We put some existing investment strategies into the system to run, generate estimated risk-return information, and finally find a strategy that meets the risk-return requirements of the product in continuous adjustment. In terms of strategy selection, products with less stable and more sensitive liabilities, such as short-term bonds, generally have a right-side trading strategy, while products with more stable liabilities, such as fixed income + products, can do some left-hand side investment strategies. ”
In the portfolio management of Tianhong's fixed income team, it is also divided into three types of assets according to the time element: bottom position, bottom position +, and enhanced position, which are respectively for low frequency, medium frequency, and high frequency in the time dimension.
Low-frequency trading is the bottom position asset, medium-frequency trading is the bottom position + asset, and the increase of high-frequency trading is a strong asset. Based on the time dimension, the odds and win rate characteristics of different assets in the portfolio are also different.
Through such a combination division, investors can also be more aware of the source of income, some are holding income, and some are trading income.
More importantly, in the process of distinguishing assets and making investment decisions with time elements, Tianhong fixed income team has integrated a unique understanding of the business model of fixed income business, that is, to make the risk-return characteristics of the product more suitable for the needs of the liability side.
A win-win situation between individuals, platforms, and holders
Ren Ming, who joined Tianhong Fixed Income team in 2012, has witnessed the team expand from 5 people in the early days to more than 70 people today.
In the process of development, the investment paradigm in the fixed income sector is also changing, with more and more asset classes, investment income is becoming more and more difficult to find, and customer needs are becoming more difficult to meet. It is in this context that the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund has gradually formed today's platform-based play.
It is not easy to achieve a platform-based style of play, and there are three main difficulties:
1) How to clarify the division of labor in specialization. The advantage of platformization is that it can gather everyone's wisdom and form a team empowerment. This needs to be done through a specialized division of labor. The basis of specialization is the need to understand what each person is good at, and the steps that divide the entire investment process. Essentially, it's a real understanding of investment researchers and the investment process for various products.
2) How to achieve the unity of the underlying ideas of the team. A real team should have a common organizational goal, a common pursuit, and a common value. If you can't unify your thoughts, then a group of people together will increase the cost of communication and friction, which will affect everyone's work efficiency and even internal friction. Investment is not a game of numbers, and it is not easy to achieve team empowerment.
3) How to balance the win-win situation of platform value and personal value. In the extreme mode of platform-based play, the individual will be "componentized". It's like a production line, and everyone is a worker on this production line. In this mode, it is difficult to bring into play the creativity and value of individuals.
Under the formation of a unified team culture, the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund has built an open "Tianhong Five-Cycle" model. This model does not turn fund managers into quantitative "screws", but breaks down their blind spots in investment, so that fund managers can focus more on their own areas and maximize everyone's active investment ability. Through data-based communication, the communication perspective of the team's investment and research personnel can be unified, and the iterative growth of team members can be realized. In the end, the platform and individuals of Tianhong Fund's fixed income team can achieve a win-win situation.
Of course, the most important thing is a win-win situation with the holders. In an era of falling interest rates, the ability to actively invest in fixed income has become more important than ever. On the other hand, fixed income investing has become more complex than in the past as more factors affect bond assets. Through the systematic investment method created over the years, the fixed income team of Tianhong Fund has also brought better returns to holders.
The win-win situation of holders, asset management institutions, and investment researchers is the real value creation.
Risk Warning: Views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Funds are risky and should be invested with caution. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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