In terms of the metal market:
As of the midday close, the base metals in the domestic market were mixed. Shanghai tin fell 2.17%, Shanghai lead rose 1.87%, Shanghai copper rose 0.61%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.97%, and Shanghai zinc rose 0.69%. Shanghai Aluminum rose 0.14%. The main alumina futures rose 0.46%. In addition, the main industrial silicon contract rose 0.43%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 1.84%.
The black series is mostly red, iron ore rose 2.55%, thread and hot coil rose slightly, and stainless steel fell slightly. In terms of double coke, coking coal and coke rose 1.07% and 1.24% respectively.
In terms of external metals, as of 11:49, LME metals rose across the board. London tin rose 2.54%, and London nickel fell 0.71%. London aluminum and London zinc both rose, up 0.14% and 1.32% respectively. London lead rose 0.55%, and London copper rose 1.03%.
In terms of precious metals, as of 11:49, COMEX gold fell 0.18%; COMEX silver rose 0.25%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of the close at noon, Shanghai gold fell 0.05%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.86%.
In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2646 points, up 2.95%.
As of 11:49 on April 24, some futures at noon:
Spot & Fundamentals
Zinc: The mainstream transaction of 0# zinc ingot in Tianjin market is 21970~22510 yuan/ton, Zijin is traded at 22030~22580 yuan/ton, Huludao is reported at 25730 yuan/ton, 0# zinc is usually quoted at a discount of 70~110 yuan/ton for 2405 contracts, Zijin is quoted at a discount of 0~50 yuan/ton for 2405 contracts, and Tianjin is 20 yuan/ton premium compared with Shanghai......
Macroscopic
Domestic:
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, the head of the relevant department of the central bank said that theoretically, long-term bonds with fixed interest rates have a long duration and are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, and investors need to attach great importance to interest rate risks. For transactional investors, by increasing leverage and extending the duration, they can get more benefits in the short-term price rise, but they are also prone to exacerbate market volatility and need to bear the losses caused by the sharp decline in prices. For banks, insurance and other allocation investors, if a large amount of funds are locked in long-term bond assets with too low yields, if the cost of the liability side rises significantly, they will face a passive situation of income not covering expenditure. Last year, Silicon Valley Bank used a large amount of deposits and short-term borrowings to buy long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), short-term debt, long-term investment, and maturity mismatch, and then as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and interest rates, bond asset prices plummeted, resulting in insolvency and liquidity crises for banks.
The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase today, zero investment and zero withdrawal have been realized.
On April 24, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1048 yuan per US dollar per dollar
On the US dollar:
As of 11:49, the U.S. dollar index was at 105.67, down 0.02%. Markets await key U.S. economic data to provide more clues on the timing of rate cuts. Recent speeches by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hint at no urgency for a rate cut. Traders now expect the Fed's first rate cut to likely be in September. Investors will once again have the opportunity to assess the performance of the U.S. economy this week, with Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. According to the survey, market participants expect the PCE price index to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in March, unchanged from February, and 2.6% year-on-year, compared with 2.5% in February. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 73% chance that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in September.
In terms of other currencies:
USD/JPY fluctuated at a high today, hitting as high as 154.8780, slightly updating a more than 34-year high and further approaching the 155 integer mark. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that interest rate hikes will be taken if inflation continues to accelerate close to the 2% target. Japan's Nikkei Asia reported on Wednesday that at its two-day meeting starting on Thursday, policymakers at the Bank of Japan are expected to focus on the impact of the yen's rapid depreciation on inflation.
Much higher-than-expected Australian Q1 inflation data sent AUD/USD higher to a one-and-a-half-week high on Wednesday and a headache for the data-dependent RBA. Surveys ahead of the RBA's March meeting showed that most economists predict that the central bank will start easing policy between August and November. Market pricing at the end of March showed a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut as early as August and a 50 basis point cut by the end of the year. Following Wednesday's announcement of high first-quarter inflation, markets are pricing in less than a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year. Strong inflation could prompt the RBA to revert to its hawkish tilt and perhaps even make its rhetoric more hawkish, talking about the possibility of having to tighten again.
In terms of data:
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI annual rate for March - seasonally adjusted, Germany's IFO business climate index for April, the preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States for March, and the monthly rate of Canada's core retail sales in February will be released. In addition, it is worth noting the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China.
Crude oil: Crude oil futures fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 11:49, U.S. oil rose 0.06%, and Brent oil fell 0.01%. This comes after industry data showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, which was a positive sign for oil demand and diverted the market's attention from the hostilities in the Middle East. Crude inventories fell by 3.237 million barrels in the week ended April 19, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. Analysts had expected inventories to rise by 800,000 barrels. Traders will be watching the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday to confirm whether there is a significant reduction in inventories.