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According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the polyethylene market has fluctuated and risen recently. Among them, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) on April 1 was 8210 yuan/ton, and the average price was 8378 yuan/ton on April 23, up 2.05% in the cycle; the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) on April 1 was 9250 yuan/ton, and the average price was 9470 yuan/ton on April 23, up 2.38% in the cycle; the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) on April 1 was 8475 yuan/ton, and the average price was 8507 yuan/ton on April 23, up 0.38% in the cycle.
In April, the polyethylene market trend was strong, LLDPE and LDPE quotations continued to rise, and HDPE quotations were slightly firm, slightly raised. The main factors are: spring maintenance is coming, petrochemical units are overhauled, polyethylene supply is expected to decrease, and the number of inquiries in the field is increasing, which boosts the market mentality; the cost side of crude oil fluctuates at a high level; downstream demand is in the relatively peak season in April; polyethylene futures market trend is strong, and the polyethylene market continues to rise under the superposition of multiple positives.
Fundamentals
Supply side: Beginning in April, the spring inspection is coming, petrochemical enterprises polyethylene plant shutdown maintenance concentrated, it is expected that the maintenance loss in April will reach 420,000 tons, an increase of 32.83% month-on-month, the supply side is reduced, the inventory is expected to be reduced, the market mentality is better, the quotation of production enterprises and traders continues to rise, and the center of gravity of polyethylene spot prices continues to move upward. According to statistics, as of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene enterprises was 77.07%, which was at a low level in the past five years. Some parking companies include Zhejiang Petrochemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, Zhongyuan Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, etc.
Cost side: The situation in the Middle East is tense, affected by the tight geopolitical situation, the price of crude oil rose significantly in early April, and fluctuated at a high level around the middle of the year, and the cost side supported polyethylene significantly.
Demand side: After the Qingming holiday, the downstream factories replenished the warehouse in an appropriate amount, and the market was good, which was good for the polyethylene market. In April, the demand for polyethylene was in the relatively peak season, and the agricultural film was at the end of the peak season, and the consumption cooled down in the month. In terms of packaging film, consumption is expected to be strong. In addition, the May Day holiday is approaching, and the downstream stock volume has been boosted, supporting the polyethylene market. Although as the price of polyethylene continues to rise, near the end of the month, buyers are slightly resistant to high-priced goods, and downstream factories have turned cautious in procurement. However, on the whole, the demand side supports polyethylene acceptably.
Futures: Since April, polyethylene futures have been mainly volatile, driving up the price of polyethylene spot.
Technical
LLDPE: According to the forecast model of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, since 2024/3/17, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to move upward. According to the calculation of 2024/4/21, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 34.72%. The LLDPE price may continue to be strong in the short term.
LDPE: Since 2024/4/7, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to move upward. According to 2024/4/21, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 35.65%. LDPE price trend may continue to be strong in the short term.
HDPE: Since 2024/3/3, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to move upward. According to 2024/4/21, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 47.98%. There is a high probability that the price of HDPE will rise in the short term.
Forecast for the future
To sum up, the spring inspection of polyethylene in the second quarter is coming, the device is overhauled centrally, and the supply side is expected to decrease. On the cost side, there is a high possibility that oil prices will fluctuate at a high level in the future. On the demand side, the support of agricultural film for polyethylene weakened, due to the gradual heating of the weather, the demand for frozen food packaging and fresh-keeping packaging film is expected to improve, coupled with the approach of the May Day holiday, the demand for downstream terminal replenishment increases, and the fundamentals look at the polyethylene market outlook. From a technical point of view, the probability of polyethylene rising is large. Analysts of the business community expect that in the short term, the polyethylene market will fluctuate strongly.