In the first month of 2024, new energy light trucks achieved a "good start" with a year-on-year surge of 4 times, and in February, which was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, it also achieved a year-on-year "double" (135%). What will the market look like in the next March? What will the overall market look like for new energy light trucks in the first quarter of 2024?
According to the terminal licensing data, in March 2024, 7,065 new energy light trucks were sold (including 4.5-6 ton models, the same below, excluding exports), which not only set a new high in monthly sales, but also set the second highest monthly sales in the history of new energy light trucks, up 280% from 1,860 in March 2023 and nearly 2 times (198%) from 2,373 in February this year. The performance of the new energy light truck market in March is quite hot!
In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales of new energy light trucks will be nearly 13,000 units (12,724 units), a year-on-year increase of 2.6 times from 3,531 units in the first quarter of last year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate will be nearly 21 percentage points larger than the 239% in January and February this year, and the trend will continue to improve.
So, what are the main characteristics of the new energy light truck market in the first quarter of 2024?
1. Sales in March soared several times year-on-year
According to the terminal licensing data, 7,065 new energy light trucks were sold in March 2024, a nearly three-fold (280%) increase from 1,860 in March 2023, and a nearly two-fold (198%) increase from 2,373 in the previous month. It can be seen that in March this year, the new energy light truck market has skyrocketed several times compared with the previous month, which can be described as extremely "hot"!
In March 2024, the reason why the new energy light truck rose nearly 3 times year-on-year is that the main reasons are: first, the same period last year was greatly affected by the withdrawal of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, and the sales base was too low, which laid the foundation for a year-on-year increase in March this year;
Second, a series of policies favorable to the development of new energy logistics vehicles have been intensively introduced recently, which has promoted the growth of sales of new energy light truck logistics vehicles;
Third, the economic environment has improved significantly in March this year, and the demand for new energy light truck logistics vehicles in the urban distribution market has increased significantly.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the mainland manufacturing PMI index was 50.8% in March this year, a new high in each month in the past six months, which means that the economic environment has improved significantly, and the demand for new energy logistics vehicles in the urban distribution market has increased sharply.
In March 2024, new energy light trucks rose nearly 2 times month-on-month, mainly due to the delay of the Spring Festival holiday in February this year, the number of new energy light trucks on the license plate was affected to a certain extent, so it laid the foundation for a month-on-month increase in sales in March. In addition, the PMI index of the manufacturing industry in March, which has been mentioned above, was 50.8%, an increase of nearly 1.7 percentage points from 49.1% in February, indicating that the market demand in March was significantly stronger than in February.
2. Sales in March not only hit the highest in the same period in history, but also hit the second highest in all monthly sales in history
According to the terminal licensing data, the sales trend of new energy light trucks in each month in the past three years is as follows:
The above chart shows that the red bars representing the sales volume in March 2024 are higher than the sales volume in the same period in 2023 (blue bar) and the sales volume in the same period in 2022 (green bar), indicating that the sales volume of new energy light trucks in March 2024 hit a new high in the same period in the past three years. Since the sales of new energy light trucks in the same period before 2022 are almost very small, it can be considered that the sales of new energy light trucks in March 2024 will hit a new high in the same period in history!
In the 27 months from January 2022 to March 2024, the red cylinder representing the sales volume in March 2024 is only lower than the cylinder in December 2022 and higher than the remaining 25 columns, indicating that the sales volume of new energy light trucks in March 2024 is the second highest in the 27-month sales volume. Since the monthly sales of new energy light trucks before 2022 are very low and almost negligible, it can be considered that the sales of new energy light trucks in March 2024 will set a second monthly sales volume in the history of new energy light trucks.
In addition to the several favorable factors analyzed above, the specific reason is that the market demand for new energy light trucks in all months before 2023 has been affected by the new crown epidemic, which to a certain extent has also provided an opportunity for the sales of new energy light trucks to hit the second highest in history in March this year.
Third, the first quarter of the sales volume hit a record high in the same period in history
According to the data, the sales of new energy light trucks in January, February and March 2024 have hit a new high in the same period corresponding to recent years, and it is not difficult to judge that the cumulative sales of new energy light trucks in the first quarter of 2024 will hit a new high in the same period in recent years, and also set a new high in the first quarter of the development history of new energy light trucks!
According to the observation and analysis of the electric card, the specific reasons are none other than the following four:
First, it has benefited from the strong drive of various recent policies to support new energy vehicles and encourage the comprehensive electrification of public transportation; second, thanks to the continuous promotion of the "dual carbon" strategy and the continuous increase of environmental protection assessment in various places, third, thanks to the gradual recovery of the domestic economy since this year, which has stimulated market vitality, and fourth, thanks to the strong support of more new new energy light trucks.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first quarter of 2024, new energy light truck companies released a total of 127 new products, especially the new products released by mainstream companies have increased significantly, which provides a strong guarantee and support for the sharp increase in sales of new energy light trucks.
Fourth, the fuel cell momentum in the first quarter is the strongest, and the hybrid is the most "weak"
1. Fuel cells led the rise, and hybrids led the decline.
According to the terminal licensing information, according to the technical route, the sales volume and year-on-year situation of various new energy light truck models in the first quarter of 2024 are as follows:
As can be seen in the figure above, in the first quarter of 2024, the sales volume of new energy light trucks by various technical routes and the year-on-year increase:
The cumulative sales of pure electric light trucks were 11,257, a year-on-year increase of 263.9%, outperforming the new energy light truck market (260%);
The cumulative sales of hybrid light trucks were 1,191, a year-on-year increase of 198.5%, underperforming and leading the decline in the new energy light truck market (260%);
The cumulative sales of fuel cell light trucks were 276 units, a year-on-year increase of 820%, outperforming and leading the market of new energy light trucks (260%).
2. The proportion of fuel cells increased the most year-on-year and the momentum was the most fierce, while the proportion of hybrid vehicles decreased the most year-on-year and was the most "weak".
According to the terminal licensing information, according to the technical route, the sales proportion and year-on-year increase and decrease of various new energy light truck models in the first quarter of 2024 are as follows:
The above chart shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the year-on-year sales of various technical route models of trucks, the proportion and the year-on-year increase and decrease in the proportion are:
The proportion of pure electric light market was 88.47%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, and it was the second largest segment of the market year-on-year, which shows that the main position of pure electric vehicles has increased year-on-year.
The market share of hybrid light trucks was 9.36%, ranking second, but the proportion decreased by 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, which was the segment with the largest year-on-year decrease, and the performance of hybrid models was the most "weak".
The fuel cell light truck market accounted for 2.17%, ranking third, accounting for an increase of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, and it is the segment with the largest year-on-year increase, and the fuel cell light truck is the "most popular" segment in the new energy light truck market in the first quarter of 2024.
The main reason is that the application scenarios of new energy light trucks are becoming more and more abundant, and the demand for fuel cell light truck models with long cruising range is increasing.
5. In the first quarter, the overall market of new energy light trucks was long-range, Dongfeng, and Yutong ranked among the top three
1. In the first quarter of 2024, in the TOP10 ranking of the overall market of new energy light trucks, Yuanyuan, Dongfeng, and Yutong are among the top three.
The above two figures show that in the first quarter of 2024, among the top 10 cumulative sales of new energy light trucks:
Long-range new energy commercial vehicles have sold a total of 3,224 units, winning the championship again, and it is also the only car company with sales of more than 3,000 units, up 161% year-on-year, underperforming the market, with a market share of 25.34%.
Dongfeng Motor sold a total of 1,375 vehicles, ranking second, soaring 1,185% year-on-year, outperforming the market, with a market share of 10.81%.
Yutong Group sold a total of 1,123 vehicles, ranking third, up 549% year-on-year, outperforming the market, with a market share of 8.83%.
The cumulative sales of the rest of the car companies are less than 1,000 units, and their market share is less than 8%.
The TOP10 all increased year-on-year, of which Jiangling Motors led the rise (up 2014%).
2. In the first quarter of 2024, in the ranking of hybrid light trucks, Yuanyuan, Foton, and JAC are among the top three.
According to the terminal licensing data, the cumulative sales of hybrid light truck models in the first quarter of 2024 will be 1,191 units, a year-on-year increase of 198%, but it will underperform the overall new energy light truck market.
In the first quarter of this year, a total of 11 companies achieved sales of hybrid light trucks, of which 8 companies sold more than 10 vehicles, and 4 car companies such as Yuanyuan, Foton, JAC and BYD sold more than 100 vehicles, forming a "100 club" of hybrid light trucks. These four automakers accounted for 31.07%, 24.77%, 19.9% and 15.62% of the market respectively.
In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales of hybrid light trucks of 11 car companies are as follows (data source: terminal license):
With the further implementation of policies to promote the development of new energy commercial vehicles and the further improvement of the economic environment, it is believed that in the next two quarters, the new energy light truck logistics vehicle market may usher in greater development opportunities!