#布林肯访华 The Taiwan issue will be confronted again#
Blinken's visit to China will become a hot topic in the near future, and for this reason, Blinken has recently made frequent harsh remarks, which is a common game strategy of the US side. Even on April 23, the US side deliberately released the news that it was considering financial sanctions against Chinese entities, which is obviously to forcibly increase its bargaining chips during its visit to China, and by the way, to meet the requirements of domestic political correctness.
Of course, the flip side of this show is that the United States really doesn't have much to play. Because China's role in the U.S. system is too great, the U.S. has to change the system on its own at a huge cost, and it can only be done gradually. At this stage, neither side can let go of the struggle, and can only play a game while cooperating. Many things will not come to an immediate conclusion, and there will be no fatal situation, and there is no need for us to be surprised by what the US side says.
These are all business conversations, and it is difficult to influence the grand strategy for the time being.
Of course, one of the best options for the US side is to let China interrupt its own development and increase some spending. For example, falling into a state of war and wasting strategic resources is similar to the problem that Russia is facing now. The premise of the effectiveness of such a preventive war is that it can effectively drag down the main strategic forces of the other side and create an environment in which the other side cannot refuse but does not have much to gain. Only in this way can a situation of continuous blood loss to the other party be formed.
But when the opposing country is very large, preventive warfare can become a reaffirmation and reinforcement of the opponent's military credibility. If a country designs an environment in which the other side steps into preventive war, but the other side resolves the war quickly, then this strengthens the military prestige of the other side and makes other countries more cautious in their relations with that country. So in that sense, the reason why Russia took a sudden and bold military action against Ukraine on February 24, 2022 is that they clearly knew the intentions of the United States and therefore took such a military adventure. Of course, it is clear that Russia did not succeed.
For an adversary like China, the United States lacks a preset battlefield environment for launching a preventive war. The best gripper is Taiwan, China. However, China's Taiwan issue is not only more legally justified than Russia's direct attack on Ukraine, but the geographical environment of the island of Taiwan cannot in fact support long-term combat needs. Whether it succeeds or fails, the geography of the island of Taiwan is unlikely to allow Chinese mainland to spend two years on it.
The only thing that may be of sufficient size is India, but on the one hand, India is too far from China's core and its capabilities are very suspicious, and on the other hand, India's relationship with the United States is also complex and delicate, India will not be so subservient to the US strategy, and India will not be a peaceful country in the Indian Ocean.
Moreover, the PLA's reform efforts and modernization progress in recent years have also made it difficult for the United States to expect that China will fall militarily into a war of attrition scenario. If China's Taiwan still has some strength, the Philippine military strength that is now charging ahead is about the same as none, and with the strength of the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard, it is basically impossible to survive the PLA's long-range strikes and will be wiped out, so the Philippines really has no courage to take a step forward.
Therefore, the PLA must maintain a significant military advantage in the Asia-Pacific region, so that the United States can not form the expectation that China will be quagmire into preventive war, and other countries will not have the courage to confront China head-on. The PLA needs to be strong enough to at least give the United States the expectation that the U.S. military will have to go down in order to form a basic balance, so that the U.S. will not dare to drag down China through preventive war.
Looking back, the PLA has maintained the dual high standards of scale and quality construction, the core of which is that China has basically completed industrialization and maintained strong reform flexibility and industrial upgrading capabilities. Correspondingly, if the PLA can maintain the level of a soldier who surrenders without a fight, it will also be a good security guarantee for China's domestic development, and it can benefit each other rather than one or the other. Those who are good at fighting have no great achievements, and that's the truth.
In this state, the PLA's ability to ensure sea and air supremacy around China will be a very important component. A large part of this burden lies on the shoulders of the Navy, which plays a central role. It is conceivable that the navy will continue to be the fastest growing branch of the PLA, which is not only a defense against the enemy outside the country, but also a factor that has a bearing on sustainable development.