Recently chatted with a friend and said he had a sum of money in a stock account,
Need good liquidity, T+0, be able to sell and increase the stock market at any time,
And the income has to be higher than Yue Bao!
You say it's not a difficult question.
But I researched bond ETFs and found that there is a solution, but the answer can also be surprising...
So today, let's talk about what are the current bond ETFs to choose from.
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I have put together a list of bonds based on their duration, as follows:
I'll give you a summary of domestic bond-based ETFs according to duration:
Within 3 months: short-term financing ETF (511360);
Duration within 3 years: CDB ETF (159650), Corporate Bond ETF (511030), CDB Bond ETF (159651), 0-4 Local Bond ETF (159816), Urban Investment Bond (511220);
Duration within 5 years: China Development Bank Bond ETF (159649), Government and Financial Bond 5-Year ETF (511580), 5-Year Local Bond ETF (511060), 5-Year Local Bond ETF (159972), Treasury Bond ETF (511010)
Duration of more than 5 years: Active Treasury Bond ETF (511020), 10-year local bond (511270), 10-year Treasury bond ETF (511260), government and financial bonds (511520)
Duration over 10 years: 30-year Treasury bond ETF (511090)
Let's start with science popularization, what is bond duration.
In other words, the shorter the duration, the shorter the maturity of the bond portfolio, and the less volatile the portfolio is affected by interest rates.
Conversely, the longer the duration, the more volatile the bond base will be affected by interest rates.
For example, the 20-year long-duration US dollar bond ETF (TLT) plummeted by nearly 50% in the course of the 22-year wave of interest rate increases from 0% to 5%.
Of course, if the United States cuts interest rates in the future, TLT can return to the role of king.
However, bond ETFs (SHVs) with a maturity of less than 1 year in the United States are basically not affected by interest rates.
So duration represents both risk and return.
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01
Short period
Within 3 months: Short-term ETF (511360)
If you don't want to buy a currency ETF fund, then you can choose a short-term ETF (511360) with a duration of less than 3 months.
Compared with short-term ETFs, short-term ETFs are about 0.5% higher than Yinhua on average every year.
Although the volatility of short-term financing ETFs is a little later, the maximum drawdown in the past three years is only 0.15%.
I think normal people should be able to accept it.
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02
Medium and short period
Duration within 3 years: CDB ETF (159650), Corporate Bond ETF (511030), CDB Bond ETF (159651), 0-4 Local Bond ETF (159816), Urban Investment Bond (511220);
Duration within 5 years: China Development Bank Bond ETF (159649), Government and Financial Bond 5-Year ETF (511580), 5-Year Local Bond ETF (511060), 5-Year Local Bond ETF (159972), Treasury Bond ETF (511010)
If you want to have a higher yield than a short-term ETF, you can look at a bond ETF with a three-year duration.
At present, there are a variety of short and medium durations,
There are tracking 0-4 year local bond index, 0-3 year CDB index...
Long-term, there are also tracking the 5-year local bond index,
and tracking 3-5 year policy financial bonds, as well as 5-year treasury bond indexes.
In the past three years, the local government bond index has been much higher than the national bond in terms of yield, annualized fluctuation, and Sharpe ratio.
It stands to reason that credit risk must be
Government bonds> policy financial bonds > local government bonds
Are these local government bonds highly in default?
After taking a look, almost all of them are AAA bonds issued by various provincial governments.
According to the conventional saying that domestic debt is not debt,
For the level above the provincial level, although there is a risk factor, the theoretical possibility of default is very small.
Some people say that the urban investment bond thunderstorm, this is not the same as the logic of local bonds, many of the urban investment is the platform financing of subsidiaries below the city and county level, borrowing the endorsement of the local ZF,
Local government bonds, on the other hand, are mostly directly financed by provincial governments, which are of different natures and have completely different repayment capabilities.
In terms of performance over the years, the 5-year local bond index can beat the 5-year government bond index almost every year, with an average of more than 0.5% per year.
It is about 0.3% more per year than the 5-year policy financial bond ETF on average.
Therefore, if you want to win high yield, the 5-year local bond ETF (159972)
followed by 3-5 year policy financial bond ETF (511580),
Last 5-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511010).
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Medium and long term:
Duration of more than 5 years: 7-10 year active treasury bond ETF (511020), 10-year local bond ETF (511270), 10-year treasury bond ETF (511260), 7-10 year government and financial bond ETF (511520)
Bonds of this maturity are more volatile due to interest rates.
Always be mentally prepared for the fall.
The duration of more than five years is also in line with this law, that is, the yield, volatility and Sharpe of the local bond index,
It is higher than several other bond indices across the board.
Same as above, the data shows that the SSE 10-Year Land Bond ETF (950109) has a slight advantage.
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Ultra-long-lasting:
30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511090)
Needless to say, this is equivalent to the A-share version of the long-term US dollar bond TLT, with an average duration of about 20 years.
In previous years, due to the trend of interest rate cuts, the performance of 511090 was regarded as YYDS, with an annualized rate of nearly 10%.
And if interest rates fall in the future, the yield will go higher.
But on the contrary, if interest rates rise, it is estimated that it will be quite miserable.
In short, the fluctuations will be very sour.
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Finally, preliminary summary:
Cash: short-term financing ETF;
Short and medium duration: 0-4 year local bond ETF (159816), 5-year local bond ETF (511060) (159972);
Long-Duration: 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511090)
ps: The fund is risky, and there are questions to add in the comment area.
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As the interest rate of stocks and bonds is approaching a record high again, the system prompts today that the position coefficient of all A is recommended to be raised, from 85 to 9.
1. Zimbabwe launched a currency linked to gold, the local stock market has plummeted by 99% since April, and we all know that the denomination of Zimbabwean currency is even afraid of Tiandi Bank, with a maximum face value of 100 trillion, and the Zimbabwean currency has been exchanged for six versions of the currency in the past year, and it has depreciated by more than 80% during the year. And now 85% of the local circulation is mainly in US dollars, but as netizens said, Zimbabwe is making progress in any way now, because there is indeed no room for regression.
2. The Hong Kong stock "new tea drink second share" tea Baidao was listed, with a maximum intraday drop of more than 35%, and the winning rate of tea Baidao stock issuance was 100%, and a buddy won 100,000 shares, and I lost 470,000 yuan today. The main valuation of this company is as high as 26 billion Hong Kong dollars, you must know that Nai Xue's tea is at its peak when it is listed, and the cumulative decline has reached 88% so far, and now it is 3.9 billion market value. It can only be said that the listing cuts leeks, and the A shares of Hong Kong stocks are not bad...