April 29 is coming, according to the latest news from the National Development and Reform Commission, domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted. With the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices will also be adjusted accordingly. This round of price adjustment is long-awaited, because since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have been raised for three consecutive months, putting a heavy fuel burden on consumers.
Looking back at the course of oil price adjustment since April
In April this year, domestic refined oil prices experienced two rounds of increases. The first round of price adjustment took place on April 1, and after two months, the prices of No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 container oil were raised by 200 yuan/ton respectively. This is also the first increase in oil prices since December 2023. On April 16, domestic oil prices rose again, with No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 container oil both rising by 200 yuan/ton. As a result, in April alone, domestic oil prices have risen by 400 yuan/ton.
From the beginning of the year to the present, domestic oil prices have been raised for three consecutive months, bringing a heavy burden of fuel costs to the majority of car owners and transportation companies. Taking a private car as an example, assuming that the fuel tank capacity of a private car is 50 liters, the cost of filling up the full tank of No. 92 petrol is about 350 yuan before the beginning of April. But after the two price adjustments in April, the cost of filling up a tank of No. 92 gasoline will be as high as 420 yuan, an increase of about 70 yuan. For diesel-fuelled heavy goods vehicles and buses, the increase in fuel costs is even more prohibitive.
The main reason for the rise in domestic oil prices: rising international crude oil prices
The main reason for the rise in domestic oil prices is the continued rise in international crude oil prices. Data shows that since December last year, international crude oil prices have risen by nearly 30%. Among them, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (WTI) rose from $75 per barrel in December last year to about $83 per barrel in mid-April this year; The price of Brent crude oil futures on the European International Energy Futures Exchange also rose from $78 per barrel in December last year to about $88 per barrel in mid-April this year.
The main factors driving the rise in international crude oil prices include:
The economic recovery has led to an increase in demand for crude oil
OPEC+ production cuts have intensified
Geopolitical tensions have led to supply concerns
A weaker dollar boosted demand for crude oil as a commodity
At present, although the U.S. crude oil production continues to hit new highs, partially offsetting the upward pressure on international oil prices, the overall international crude oil supply has not fully met the growth of demand. Therefore, it is expected that international crude oil prices will remain high in the short term.
The next round of domestic oil prices may be lowered
Although international crude oil prices remain high temporarily, the latest round of domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to usher in a downward adjustment. According to the preliminary forecast, the price reduction in this round is about 90 yuan/ton. In other words, the price of No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will be reduced by about 0.07-0.08 yuan/liter compared with the current price.
Although the reduction is limited, it is undoubtedly good news for consumers who continue to experience high oil price pressures. According to the above reduction forecast, if a private car is filled with 50 liters of No. 92 gasoline, it will save about 3.5-4 yuan compared with mid-April. For heavy goods vehicles and buses, each refueling can save more on fuel costs.
In addition, from a macro perspective, the reduction of refined oil prices will also bring opportunities for logistics, transportation and other industries to reduce costs and increase efficiency, which will help ease the operating pressure of enterprises, so that end consumers can also benefit from this.
Consumers are keeping an eye on oil prices
There is no doubt that the adjustment of refined oil prices is directly related to the living standards of consumers. As the world's largest importer of crude oil, China's domestic oil price trend has also attracted great attention from all walks of life.
For ordinary people, the rise in the price of refined oil will undoubtedly increase the cost of living and make the "wallet" even worse. Therefore, the oil price reduction is expected to reduce some of the burden of fuel costs for many individuals and families, and ease the pressure on life.
For businesses, the trend of oil prices has a direct impact on transportation and logistics costs. Higher oil prices usually mean an increase in operating costs for businesses, which is not conducive to profitability. At that time, after the oil price is lowered, it may reduce part of the transportation cost for enterprises and improve operating efficiency.
In general, the adjustment of the price of refined oil products has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. Although the reduction is limited, it is still seen as good news, which has many people looking forward to easing the pressure on fuel costs. Of course, in the medium and long term, the trend of domestic oil prices will still be affected by many factors such as fluctuations in international crude oil prices and market supply and demand, and people will continue to pay attention to the future trend of oil prices.