文 / 手游那点事 willow
It's really a short drama of success, and a short drama of defeat.
In the past year, a fire called "short drama" has burned all over the country in an instant, and its popularity is so high that even game companies watching the play can't help but take it personally.
According to Tencent Video's "2023 Short Drama Report", a total of 3,574 domestic short dramas and 97,327 episodes have been recorded this year, which is an increase of nearly 282% and 302% compared with 2021. Affected by this, WeChat, as one of the main distribution platforms for short dramas, has poured in a large amount of film and television content, and there is a faint trend of competing with WeChat mini games.
(Source: Yunhe Data > Tencent Video & Qingying jointly released the "2023 Short Drama Report")
At the same time, Kuaishou also revealed the popularity of short dramas in the "2023 Short Drama Data Value Report": the number of short drama-related enterprises this year is about 4 times that of 2016, and the number of short drama production institutions is as high as 22.9w. In this vast army of short dramas, dozens of game companies, including Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect, are highly active, and it seems that it has become a trend to grasp both ends of game short dramas.
(Source: Kuaishou "2023 Short Drama Data Value Report")
Under the impact of this wave of craze, more and more game companies have begun to contact short dramas through marketing, linkage and other means. But behind the back-to-back bets on new industries, a burning anxiety is coming out – all desperately looking for new growth.
At this time, many practitioners also began to think: is the boom set off by "short drama + game" more of a bubble or an opportunity? And who made money from these game companies that rushed into the nuggets of short dramas? Who lost all their money?
01
When the wind of skits blows into the gaming industry
Before understanding the short drama layout of various game companies, I believe that many gamers have the same doubt in their hearts, that is, how do games and short dramas "hook up" together?
First of all, we have to clarify a concept, the "short drama + game" we are currently discussing is actually a game type that adds interactive gameplay on the basis of live-action short dramas. And this kind of game products that borrow short drama resources can be said to be popular throughout the game industry last year.
Back in October of last year, an interactive video game called "I'm Surrounded by Beauty!" (hereafter referred to as "Finish! Beauty!") hit the Steam platform and sold 2 million copies and 80 million sales at an unimaginable rate.
The success of this product has aroused heated discussions in the entire game circle, because many practitioners have found that this kind of live-action interactive game made by borrowing skits has broad prospects in the current prevalence of short drama culture. Subsequently, a large number of live-action interactive games came into being, and many manufacturers also began to promote various projects around the model of "short drama + game".
Soon, the first batch of companies to follow up on "short drama + game" enjoyed the dividend: after the opening of A-shares on November 1 last year, driven by the concept of live-action short drama games, dozens of game stocks, including Shengtian Network, Fuchun Shares, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Youzu Network, and Glacier Network, all soared.
Take Chinese Online, which has risen more sharply, as an example. Some users asked Chinese Online about the popularity of interactive video games: "Is there a similar product reserve within the company?" Chinese Online said that the overseas company CMS (Maple Leaf Interactive) has launched the interactive game "Chapters" and the live-action short drama product ReelShort, and the market performance is strong.
(Source: Chinese Online Official Q&A Platform)
In fact, long before the release of "Finish! Beauty!", Maple Leaf Interactive, a subsidiary of Chinese Online, launched the "Chapters: Interactive Stories" interactive novel product in 2017, and the number of registered users in 2019 exceeded 15 million. Later, they adapted the online text into an interactive game, with an annual revenue of hundreds of millions of yuan, and the interactive game reached the top level in one fell swoop.
When the time comes to 2023, the accumulated Maple Leaf Interactive has once again run out of short drama hits: a short drama app called ReelShort has topped many free overseas lists, and its daily revenue is close to the well-known streaming platform Netflix, while the number of downloads once exceeded the global explosion TikTok - it seems that all signs indicate that the novelty of short dramas has broad prospects on a global scale.
In this regard, the mobile game about the industry trend of "short drama + game" interviewed Nan Yapeng, general manager of Maple Leaf Interactive Beijing Company, not long ago. The other party said that in order to cope with this wave, the company will increase investment in content supply in the new year, and set up a team in the United States to go all out to increase content production.
During the interview, we also talked about the fact that in recent years, there are gradually more competitors in the "short drama + game" track, but Nan Yapeng believes that the short drama market is still very large and the user demand is also very strong, so focusing on itself may be a better strategy.
And Nan Yapeng's remarks actually prove to a certain extent the unique potential and advantages of the "short drama + game" market - not rolling, but also very profitable.
As a result, some manufacturers have calculated the accounts based on the case of Xiaoyou Culture and Maple Leaf Interactive: they found that this emerging short drama business can not only further expand the market value of its game IP, but also provide good revenue for the company's main body in the era of short dramas, which can be described as a multi-win.
In this way, under the encouragement of the general environment, a year-long carnival for the short drama market kicked off in the game industry.
02
Tencent, NetEase, Perfect Lead
More than 20 game manufacturers came down in person
I have to say that after the author carefully observed the situation of domestic short dramas, I understood a truth: no matter what industry it is, no matter how big the bigwigs go overseas say that the competition is not big and the business is not rolled, the domestic market can still be in the dark.
According to statistics from mobile games, more than 20 game manufacturers have poured into the short drama industry in the past year, and they are involved in all aspects of short drama production, film and game products, and platform layout. However, due to the different investment scales and business forms of major manufacturers, we will classify the above manufacturers into the following three directions.
1. Borrow short drama resources to launch interactive video games:
Whenever the direction of "short drama + game" is mentioned, everyone must always think of interactive movies and games for the first time. No way, since "Finish! Beauty!" exploded out of the circle, this game track that can leverage tens of millions of revenue with a small amount of investment (at the average level of millions) has now sprung up like mushrooms after a rain.
Last year, China Tencent, a subsidiary of Tencent, joined hands with ALT Lab, the developer of "Flying Over Room 13", to announce that China's first two-player interactive film game "Spy in Pairs" will be launched this year.
Unlike traditional movie games, which focus on immersive experiences, Spy in Pairs emphasizes social aspects in terms of gameplay: the game allows two users to play different roles online, and allows players to choose interesting options that harm each other. This kind of two-person dual-perspective design looks at the entire film and game market, and it is also fresh.
In addition to Tencent, Perfect World, which laid out the short drama industry early, has also figured out some ways recently. On March 29 this year, a game called "Beauty, Please Don't Interfere with My Learning" (hereinafter referred to as "Learning") ranked among the top 50 on the Steam best-selling list for several days, and its performance was extremely bright.
According to the Southern Metropolis Daily, "Learning" was developed by Perfect World's "Peach Blossom Land Studio". At present, the number of reviews of this product on Steam has exceeded 3500, and the game's praise rate is as high as 97%. Compared with a number of "Finish! Beauty!" like products, this achievement can be said to have achieved a cliff-like lead.
There are many similar products worth paying attention to: for example, "Oh My God! I'm Surrounded by Sword and Fairy" (tentative name), which was licensed by CMGE to INTINY Studio (the production team that launched "Finish!Beautiful!") last year, "The Goddess Descends to a Different Space to Find Love" co-created by Finger Games and Wuwu Media, and "It's Over! I Can Catch Up with Beauty!", which drove the stock price of Shengtian Network to rise, all of which attracted a lot of attention in the early stage of project exposure.
2. Set up a film and television department to promote the short drama business:
Of course, "short drama + game" is only a small corner of the 30 billion market, and what really stands out is the short drama business.
In recent years, the short drama market that has entered explosive growth can be described as a hundred flowers. For example, Tencent, which owns Tencent Video and WeChat Mini Program, two major short drama distribution platforms, shared a total of 50 million accounts last year with the two high-quality short dramas "Please, Don't Spoil Me" and "Provocation", of which "Provocation" once refreshed the ceiling of a single short drama.
In addition, head game manufacturers, including Perfect and NetEase, will also enter the short drama game in 2022, among which the perfection of using the film and television industry as a side business is even better.
On March 10 this year, the short drama "New Year" in the 2024 Douyin Spring Festival file list officially ended. This short drama from Perfect World's Perfect Manifesto Studio has accumulated more than 1 billion views, making it the most played short drama on Douyin.
It should be noted that the studio launched three high-quality short dramas in less than half a year, and cut a cumulative broadcast of 1.74 billion. Driven by the short drama business, Perfect World's film and television business revenue in 2023 will increase by 222.46% year-on-year. Although Perfect did not specifically draw a "short drama" section in the financial report, combined with the above-mentioned Perfect in the short drama industry, presumably the growth brought by the short drama will not be too small.
(Source: 2023 Perfect World Annual Financial Report)
On the other hand, NetEase also dispatched three departments, including NetEase Antelope, NetEase Youdao, and NetEase News, to lay out the short drama market last year. However, according to DataEye's 2024 Q1 game company short drama column, although the official short drama account of NetEase B station "Hangzhou Yunyue Reading" has launched 18 short dramas in Q1, the team responsible for domestic short dramas is only NetEase Antelope.
In addition to the above-mentioned head manufacturers, there are also many game companies that are also quietly working on the short drama industry: for example, Glacier Network's wholly-owned subsidiary Palfish Technology, this year joined hands with Yiteng Network, which focuses on short dramas, to enter the short drama market; for example, the Chinese Online mentioned above, last year's two short dramas launched by Maple Leaf Interactive exploded on the TikTok platform, attracting tens of millions of viewers; and Tianyu Digital, which has found another way to get out of the "virtual human + short drama" model, has also performed well in the short drama market.
3. Launched a short drama APP to harvest tuyere traffic:
While some manufacturers' attention is focused on the downstream industry of the short drama industry, some keen game people have started the idea of distributing short dramas.
Let's take NetEase as an example. According to the information of Beluga Dick's going to sea, in 2023, a short drama APP called LoveShots will be launched overseas, and at the same time, LoveShots has put a large number of short drama content materials suitable for female themes, trying to break into the overseas female short drama market. Later, many industry insiders pointed out that the APP came from NetEase, and it was born as a test product under the dividend of short dramas.
(At present, it seems that the market performance of NetEase LoveShots is average)
has also made achievements in the overseas short drama market, as well as DramaBite, a subsidiary of Chizicheng. As a game manufacturer deeply engaged in the overseas social field, Childtown launched DramaBite, a video app focusing on "social + short dramas", at the end of last year, and mainly aimed at the Middle East such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
In addition, many veteran Guangzhou game manufacturers have also chosen to transform into short drama tracks this year: for example, Benjie Network, which once launched "Cute Hospital", launched the "Benjie Theater" mini program this year and started the business of short drama distribution;
(Source: DataEye Short Drama Hot List)
Based on the above three business directions, it is not difficult to see that in order to seize the wave of short dramas, game manufacturers can be said to be eight immortals crossing the sea and showing their own magical powers. However, it should be noted that these new short drama forces on the bright side are only the tip of the iceberg of the "Nuggets Brigade", including Sanqi, Gigabit, Xinghe, Gluttony, Yishi and other manufacturers are recruiting short drama-related positions, and the domestic short drama market will usher in more challengers from the game industry in the future.
So, after sorting out what kind of collision has occurred between the skit industry and the game industry, we are left with one last question that remains unanswered - for the game industry, is skis more of a bubble or an opportunity?
03
Skit at the head, is it more of a bubble or an opportunity?
Not long ago, a practitioner who is optimistic about the development of short dramas shared a report with me. The report shows that the market size of short dramas in 2023 has reached 37.39 billion yuan, and in her opinion, this figure can be interpreted in two directions.
On the one hand, after just four years of explosive growth, the scale of the short drama industry has reached 70% of the century-old film industry, and according to the forecast of the three parties, the short drama market will exceed 100 billion in 2027, which shows the development potential behind this track.
But on the other hand, no matter what, the current scale of short dramas is only equivalent to 12.5% of the domestic game market, and because the entire Internet is participating in the competition, it is difficult for this track to support the ambition of game manufacturers to "find growth"; at the same time, there are also some voices in the industry that the time of game users will be further divided by short videos and short dramas, and the expansion of the short drama market will inevitably be accompanied by the shrinkage of the game market.
Finally, in the midst of the wavering, she asked me a question - "Is the skit dividend more of a bubble or an opportunity for the game industry?"
In response to this problem, combined with the current market situation, I believe that "the short drama bubble is greater than the opportunity, and the main reason is that between the short drama and the game business, a stable and effective methodology has not yet been born".
Let's first explain why for the game industry, the short drama bubble is greater than the opportunity: today (April 23), Xia Xiaohui, executive president and editor-in-chief of Ying Universe Group, said in a dialogue with Sina Technology's "Science and Technology Innovation 100 People": "Micro-short dramas are not profiteering now, and not every drama can be profitable. ”
Xia Xiaohui emphasized: "Whether the short drama is popular or not is still a small probability event. Judging from our (Ying Universe) experience, among the 10 dramas, there may be 2-3 that are tied or have a small profit, and 1-2 can become hits, which is not bad if it can reach such a ratio. ”
In other words, even in the eyes of manufacturers who are good at micro-short drama business, the probability of a short drama being tied is only about 20%-30%. Even according to Tech Planet media reports, 90% of the manufacturers in the current short drama market are now losing money, and the first batch of loss-making "players" have been forced out of the game, and the short drama market as a whole is in a stage of "one out of ten".
Looking at the entire Internet industry in the context of crazy short dramas, game manufacturers who are not good at film and television want to break through through short dramas, and the difficulty is no less than winning the jackpot in the lottery.
What's more, at present, the short drama and game business has not yet run out of a clear methodology: for example, a while ago, many manufacturers wanted to enter the short drama game through interactive video games. However, since the success of "Finish! Beauty!", a large number of live-action interactive products have recently ushered in a concentrated death, and a large number of games have not yet returned to their original needs, and many of them can be regarded as both losing their wives (cost) and losing their soldiers (word of mouth).
(The reviews do not break thousands, and products with declining word-of-mouth abound)
This phenomenon shows that "short drama + game" is not a tried-and-true wealth password, and before this track runs out of a feasible product model, it can only bring traffic gains to the company through short drama drainage and short drama marketing.
For example, the mobile game "Fantasy Journey to the West" from NetEase, combined with interactive plot gameplay during the Spring Festival, and three Douyin KOLs jointly launched a fantasy version of the "I was surrounded by beautiful women" series of videos, conveying the New Year's version of the game to the user group in a clever way.
So to sum up, even if many people praise "short drama + game" as a unique outlet of the times, before the bubble set off by the stock price completely dissipates, I think it may be better for some game companies to focus on their own game field in the future.
Or take 10,000 steps back and think, if someone really wants to become another person who eats crabs in "skit + game", maybe you have to be prepared to be injured by crabs first.