Affected by factors such as lithium price fluctuations, Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) released a performance forecast after hours on April 23, saying that it is expected to lose 3.6-4.3 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, compared with a profit of nearly 4.9 billion yuan in the same period last year. At the same time, compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, the scale of losses in the first quarter of this year has also intensified.
The announcement quickly attracted the attention of the exchange. On the evening of the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern, requiring Tianqi Lithium to explain the reasons for the expansion of losses in the first quarter of this year and whether the risk of losses is sustainable.
The scale of losses in the first quarter of this year widened sharply
Tianqi Lithium is a new energy materials enterprise with lithium as the core, and its business covers the key stages of the lithium industry chain, including the development of hard rock lithium ore resources, the processing and sales of lithium concentrate, and the production and sales of lithium chemical products. The company's lithium resource projects are all over the world, and it is one of the very few enterprises in the world that has deployed high-quality lithium mines and salt lake brine ore resources at the same time, and has its own minerals in China, Australia and Chile, and is known as the "lithium king" in the industry. But judging from the stock price and performance, the company is not having a good time now.
According to the announcement, Tianqi Lithium expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter of this year to be a loss of 3.6-4.3 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is a loss of 3.6-4.4 billion yuan. Compared with the performance of the first quarter of 2023, the first quarter of this year turned from a profit to a loss, and the scale of the loss increased sharply.
Tianqi Lithium said that the performance change was mainly affected by the fluctuation of the lithium product market, the company's lithium product sales price fell sharply compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit of lithium products fell sharply. In addition, the widening of losses is also related to the company's important associate SQM, which is expected to decline sharply year-on-year in the first quarter.
In fact, compared with the performance in 2023, Tianqi Lithium's loss in the first quarter of this year only continued the previous decline. According to the company's 2023 financial report, last year's full-year revenue only increased slightly by 0.13% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 69.75% year-on-year.
If viewed quarterly, Tianqi Lithium's loss will start in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the financial report data, the first to third quarters of last year were profitable, and only the fourth quarter lost 801 million yuan. Notably, this is the lithium giant's first single-quarter loss since the first quarter of 2021.
From the above data, it can be seen that the scale of Tianqi Lithium's loss in the first quarter of this year, whether it is year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter, can be called a "change of face".
Regulators are paying attention quickly, and institutions are lowering their earnings expectations
For Tianqi Lithium, the problem of two consecutive quarters of losses and a sharp expansion of the loss amount has attracted the attention of the exchange. Just after the company disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern on the same day, requiring the company to "quantitatively analyze the reasons for the significant increase in losses in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, and explain whether there is a risk of sustained losses".
As of press time, Tianqi Lithium has not replied to the exchange's letter of concern, but interestingly, in an institutional survey in early April this year, the company also said that "it has recently felt that the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered, and the overall delivery situation of customers is better than earlier expectations, and some new customers have issued purchase offers."
After the disclosure of the first quarter of this year's performance forecast, institutions also quickly responded. Guosen Securities and Huafu Securities both issued research reports saying that due to the large fluctuation of lithium prices, the lithium price expectations were revised downward, so Tianqi Lithium's profit forecast was further revised downward.
Among them, Guosen Securities expects Tianqi Lithium's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 11.729 billion yuan, 13.762 billion yuan, and 16.082 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.527 billion yuan, 5.303 billion yuan, and 6.208 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast value from 2024 to 2025 is 8.483 billion yuan and 9.298 billion yuan). Huafu Securities expects Tianqi Lithium's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2026 to be 3.295 billion yuan, 3.920 billion yuan, and 5.148 billion yuan (the original forecast value from 2024 to 2025 is 7.06 billion yuan and 7.43 billion yuan).
As a lithium giant, Tianqi Lithium's performance is highly correlated with lithium prices. Since last year, the lithium price market has fluctuated dramatically, which has also caused the company's performance to fluctuate. According to the institutional research records released by the company on April 9 this year, the company observed that "the fluctuation of lithium prices in 2023 is quite different from the reasonable fluctuations in the past, and it also noted that the lithium futures market has related ups and downs and fluctuations, and the behavior of buyers and sellers in the futures market may also have a certain impact on the market trend, which is worth paying close attention to." ”
For the future lithium price forecast, Tianqi Lithium said that the trend of lithium prices mainly depends on the overall supply and demand pattern of the lithium industry and other factors, "From the perspective of demand, we are confident in the long-term development of the new energy industry." At present, the global lithium industry is entering an upward period of industry development. "In the medium to long term, the company believes that the fundamentals of the lithium industry will continue to improve in the coming years.