On April 20, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported that two more African partners have joined the Chinese-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a project that aims to establish a permanent base on the moon after 2030.
Establishment and expansion of the International Lunar Research Station
The concept of a lunar scientific research station was first proposed by the China National Space Administration in 2016, and is analogous to scientific cooperation research projects such as the Earth's Antarctic and Arctic research stations.
In June 2019, the China Space Administration, the European Space Agency and the Russian Space Group reached a preliminary consensus to jointly demonstrate and plan the feasibility of a lunar research station.
In September 2019, representatives of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) consulted with experts from Russia, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Malaysia, Thailand and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs on the draft draft, and reached consensus on various aspects.
As of June 2023, two more countries and one organization have signed agreements to announce their participation in the International Lunar Research Station project: the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO).
In September 2023, a number of institutions, including space agencies such as South Africa and Egypt, signed a memorandum of understanding to join the plan.
On April 12 this year, Turkey, a member of NATO, abandoned its ally the United States and turned to the International Lunar Research Station project. A few days ago, on April 20, two more countries got involved: Ethiopia and Kenya.
From the plan put forward in 2016 to 2024, more and more countries will join the "International Lunar Research Station", which has also made many countries see the situation clearly, that is, it is good to enjoy the shade with the big tree of China.
Judging from the current situation, there have been two camps in the matter of landing on the moon, one is the "International Lunar Research Station" led by China, and the other is the "Artemis Moon Landing Program" led by the United States.
At present, only China and the United States have the ability and strength to complete the moon landing in the world, and if there is any hope to make a difference on the moon in the future, then they can only join this project.
The strength of China and the United States on the moon
On the bright side, the United States should be stronger in landing on the moon, and it began the Apollo 11 manned lunar landing program in 1969, with a total of 6 manned landings on the moon.
Relying only on the accumulation of technology, it is logically better than China. After all, China has not yet achieved a manned lunar landing, and the most recent manned lunar mission was the Chang'e-5 lunar sampling mission.
In terms of the nature of the mission, it is similar to the Apollo moon landing, but after all, there were no people on it. After all, there are many factors that need to be considered for manned landing on the moon, the first of which is the issue of ensuring the safety of personnel. In this regard, the United States has carried out six missions to the moon and has accumulated a lot of experience.
However, from a practical point of view, the United States today is not the United States in 1969, and at the beginning of the Artemis moon landing program, the original plan was to achieve a manned landing on the moon in 2024.
And in 2021, the plan was postponed to 2025. In the process, the United States has been in trouble with the moon landing, although it successfully launched the Artemis 1 moon rocket in November 2022. But at the time of returning, NASA also admitted that the re-entry capsule was damaged to varying degrees, and that the next launch would not take place if the problem was not resolved.
In this way, after the past two years, the Artemis moon landing in 2024 has been postponed again, and the moon landing, originally scheduled for 2025, has been postponed to 2027.
If we run into trouble again, this time may be delayed again, and once it is delayed until around 2030, that point in time will be the time of China's moon landing.
This situation must be something that the United States does not want to see, so the NASA administrator has been a little annoyed at many recent meetings and has accused those who do not support him.
Especially in an unmanned lunar mission this year, there was a major mistake, and an unmanned lunar probe actually landed "lying" in the process of landing, that is, it did not stand firm and fell. If this were a manned landing on the moon, it would be an unimaginable mistake, because in such a situation, even if the astronauts were fine, they would probably not be able to return from the moon.
On the other hand, China has been taking one step at a time in lunar exploration missions over the years, and will launch Chang'e-6 in May, which will accumulate more experience and make full preparations for the future manned landing on the moon.
Therefore, under this situation, the strength of China and the United States to land on the moon is not as big as it seems on the surface, which is why Turkey did not join the Artemis moon landing program, but applied for the China-led international lunar research station project.
Who will come out on top in the future?
Judging from the current situation, China already has the strength to land on the moon, and many batches of astronauts have been trained, and the process of landing Chang'e-5 on the moon has actually demonstrated the implementation of the feasibility of landing on the moon.
The manned lunar landing is nothing more than optimizing the unmanned probe of Chang'e-5 so that it has the basic conditions for astronauts to survive, whether it is returning or entering orbit, the actual lunar landing process is not much different from Chang'e-5.
At present, what China lacks in a manned lunar landing is a heavy-duty launch vehicle, and this heavy-lift rocket is a new generation of manned launch vehicle - Long March 10.
The Long March 10 launch vehicle will use liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen, and kerosene as propellants. The total length of the rocket is about 92 meters, the maximum take-off weight is about 2187 tons, the maximum take-off thrust can reach 2678 tons, the low-earth orbit carrying capacity is 70 tons, and the earth-moon transfer orbit carrying capacity is more than 27 tons.
On July 12, 2023, Zhang Hailian, deputy chief designer of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, said that the Long March 10 rocket adopts a modular design and will use two launch vehicles to move the lunar lander and the manned spacecraft to the Earth-Moon transfer orbit respectively, and then the spacecraft and lander will dock in the orbit around the moon.
After the astronauts enter the lunar lander, they land in the predetermined area of the moon, and after completing the lunar mission, they will take the lander to ascend to the lunar orbit and dock with the spacecraft, and then return to Earth by spacecraft.
At present, the Long March 10 has entered the initial sample development stage, and is expected to be ready for its first flight by 2027. That's why the Artemis moon landing program in the United States has set a deadline of 2027.
Because as long as China has all the conditions to land on the moon by 2027, as long as the Long March 10 is fully successful, then it can be launched at any time, and it will carry astronauts to the moon.
On the U.S. side, it uses the Space Launch System rocket (SLS), which has actually had frequent problems since the beginning of its development, and when it was about to be launched, in August 2022, there was a problem with the hydrogen exhaust pipe of the engine, and in September 2022, there was another hydrogen leak.
In fact, it is difficult to believe that such a rocket with frequent problems can take on the heavy task of manned landing on the moon. The United States actually has a double insurance, that is, SpaceX's Starship, this year's Starship has been tested once, if it is a one-time rocket, it is undoubtedly a success, but as a recovery rocket, it cannot be recovered, it is undoubtedly a failure, or it is not fully done.
Therefore, the future winner of the moon landing between China and the United States may be SpaceX's Starship rocket.
epilogue
In fact, there are actually a lot of centrists in the U.S.-China-led moon landing program, such as the European Space Agency, who will not suffer in the end, regardless of who will have the upper hand in the end.
The two sides also have many staunch friends in the moon landing project, such as Russia's support for China, and the United States also has some staunch supporters, such as Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom and other traditional allies.
Over the years, the United States has actually viewed the U.S.-China moon landing program as a "space race," but we recognize this view as a legitimate "competition."
The reason why they are so anxious is because the best place on the moon is in the south pole region of the moon, which not only has a suitable temperature, but also has a large amount of water ice resources, which means that whoever lands on the moon first will have the opportunity to establish his own permanent moon base in the limited area of the south pole. It is for this reason that NASA administrators have repeatedly published their pros and cons that the United States may lose to China in the moon landing.
Who do you think will win this "race" for the moon landing? China-led international lunar research station, or the US-led Artemis moon landing program?
#精品长文创作季##登月##如何看待中国载人登月计划##国际月球科研站##阿尔忒弥斯登月计划#