Doesn't it mean that the earth is going to cool down? Is El Niño gone, La Niña is returning? How does it feel hotter and hotter?
Indeed, new research from Geophysical Research Letters (2024) has once again published that record high temperatures and high humidity are expected in the tropics in the summer of 2024.
At the same time, an article from the journal Nature also published an article pointing out that the temperature in 2023 will be even hotter than expected, and humanity is worried that it is in uncharted territory, and if it continues like this in 2024, the terrible situation may continue, so what is going on?
Let's take a closer look at what this is all about.
Doesn't it mean that the earth is going to cool down?
Indeed, there is a peculiar phenomenon this year, that is, the El Niño phenomenon, which, judging by the development trend, is already weakening and is moving towards a neutral state. But when you move to a neutral state, you move towards La Niña.
According to a new round of data released by NOAA in April, the outlier has been steadily declining since El Niño peaked at about 2.0 °C in November-December 2023, meaning that its weakening has disappeared, based on monitoring of the main indicators that measure the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
It is tentatively estimated that there is a 60% chance of La Niña between June and August, but under the combined autumn and early winter data, the probability of La Niña is as high as 85%.
So, this suggests that La Niña is almost certain to occur, however, with La Niña, it is a key indicator of cooling.
Many people should know that under the El Niño phenomenon, the global warming trend is more intense, and the extreme high temperature is also more ferocious, which has been clearly demonstrated to everyone in 2023, with high temperatures exceeding 40 degrees and more than 50 degrees existing in different regions of the world.
However, this is an anomaly that may be caused by El Niño, and there is another key factor in it, which is that it may trigger a global "warming", which is why 2023 is the hottest year on record, and it is hotter than expected.
La Niña, on the other hand, is the opposite of the El Niño phenomenon and has a cooling effect, so there is not much of a problem in saying that the earth is cooling.
But this cooling is not a long-term development model, but a "short-term".
That is, it only has a short-term cooling effect on the planet, and the cooling effect it brings temporarily slows the rise in global temperatures, but it does not stop or reverse the long-term trend of global warming.
This also shows that the fluctuation of the earth's cold and warm temperature is only a "small" change, and then returns to the main warming effect of the earth, which is the general situation.
Got it? The Earth is going to cool down? Yes, but it's only a short-term change, and it's mostly based on the return of La Niña.
This is also the question of the new research showing that 2024 could be even hotter, and the heat will hit a new high again.
Isn't La Niña coming back?
According to NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt, global warming is changing the way the climate system operates, much faster than scientists expected.
Although the sudden rise in temperature may be a short-term anomaly or a "flash in the pan" in the data, there is no reversal of the warming trend in the long term.
At the same time, from 2023 to 2024, humans have set global high temperature records for 10 consecutive months, and the problem behind it is the impact of El Niño.
Its effects will continue until La Niña returns, and even if it disappears quickly, it will affect the changes of summer.
As a result, a new statistical analysis of the interaction between El Niño and rising global temperatures due to climate change has concluded that there is a nearly 70 percent chance that temperature and humidity records will be broken in the upcoming tropical summer in 2024.
In the long run, global warming will not only bring about an increase in temperature, but also an increase in humidity, that is, an increase in the amount of water vapor in the air, which, combined with El Niño, will bring heat and humidity to higher levels in a particular area of the tropics.
At the same time, the researchers concluded that the average maximum wet-bulb temperature on tropical land in 2024 will reach 26.2°, with a 68% chance of breaking the already recorded record.
For example, in northern India, there is a 50% chance of record heat and humidity in the summer of 2024, while there is a 35% chance of record heat in the Sahel region of Africa.
Therefore, 2024 will be another unusual year for the planet, and humanity will be further into the so-called uncharted territory, because climate change has left many people feeling confused and do not know how to deal with it.
Obviously, the new high temperature in 2024 is actually more under the El Niño phenomenon, and it is only possible to fluctuate after the return of La Niña.
But the heat is more intense, it may completely override the La Niña effect, and the manifestation will not be so obvious, and it should be more extreme weather, which is what many people say "either hotter or colder", which is the situation of climate change.
Expert: 45 degrees is called a high temperature
The earth is getting hotter and hotter, and the high temperature is constantly evolving, and the label for high temperature may also be constantly changing, and the world will probably be a new round of adjustment in the future.
In 2023, you should also see that in fact, the temperature of 35 is too common. In June 2023, the temperature in Mexico, Pakistan, Iran and other countries exceeded 45 degrees Celsius, and in June, the maximum temperature in Zabol, Iran, reached 50.8 degrees Celsius.
Wei Ke, deputy director of the Monsoon System Research Center of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the recurrence of extreme heat weather in various places may be just a "prelude" to the manifestation of global warming, and "45 degrees Celsius may be considered high temperature in the future".
So, climate change is already changing the Earth's heat patterns, and experts are seeing it clearly. And this is not something that has not appeared, but has appeared.
This also shows that the world needs to be vigilant about such high temperatures in 2024, because the higher the temperature, the greater the impact. If human beings do not find a way to change the climate in the future, then in the future, human beings may lose more homes due to extreme weather and will not be able to survive, so they can only stay away.
Therefore, people around the world should wake up, reduce emissions together, multi-index afforestation, etc., it is really not a problem to continue like this, climate change is very dangerous, this is not a joke.
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