Securities Times reporter Chen Jiannan
Controlled nuclear fusion technology, as a cutting-edge emerging technology in the field of new energy, is regarded as an important development direction of new quality productivity. Fusion energy is regarded as the ultimate solution in the energy field, with minimal impact on the environment, and is one of the key technologies to achieve sustainable development and the goal of "dual carbon".
With the breakthrough of related technologies and the influx of capital, the commercialization process is accelerating. At present, nuclear fission technology has been put into practical use, and nuclear fusion technology is also developing rapidly, and the era of commercialization is coming. The mainland has made remarkable progress in this field and exported relevant technologies to the world, fully demonstrating the key role of scientific and technological innovation in promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society.
Policy in favour of controlled nuclear fusion
Controlled nuclear fusion is of great strategic importance to the mainland's energy security, so the government has introduced a series of supportive policies. In 2021, the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Completely, Accurately, and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, and the State Council's Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030 called for promoting research on controlled nuclear fusion technology, and in 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System, emphasizing support for the research and development of controlled nuclear fusion.
According to the official website of the Southwest Institute of Physics of the Nuclear Industry, on December 29, 2023, the controllable nuclear fusion innovation consortium composed of 25 central enterprises, scientific research institutes, universities, etc. was officially announced. The establishment of the consortium is a major breakthrough in the field of controlled nuclear fusion, which will strongly promote the research and application of the mainland in the field of controlled nuclear fusion, and contribute to the adjustment and sustainable development of the energy structure of the mainland and the world. Since the beginning of this year, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council has launched the implementation of the future industry sailing action, clarifying that the field of controllable nuclear fusion is the only direction of future energy.
In recent years, developed countries have also successively introduced national-level industrial policies for controlled nuclear fusion to promote technology research and development and investment. Since 2019, the U.S. government has successively announced a series of policies such as the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act (2019), the Inflation Reduction Act (2022), and the U.S. Government Budget for Fiscal Year 2024 (2023), and continued to increase support for the field of controlled nuclear fusion.
In April 2023, the Japanese government launched the "Nuclear Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy" to establish a large domestic fusion industry and occupy a dominant position in the future commercial use of nuclear fusion energy by establishing a large domestic fusion industry.
The amount of financing has reached record highs
The commercialization of nuclear fusion has promising prospects, and the amount of financing in the capital market has reached new highs. According to the Fusion Industry Association (FIA), the cumulative financing of private nuclear fusion companies worldwide in 2022 reached US$4.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 139%, and the total number of participating companies exceeded 30. As of the first half of 2023, the cumulative financing amount has reached US$6.21 billion, and the number of new participating companies has reached 13, and more than half of the companies expect to achieve fusion and grid-connected power generation by 2035.
From 2022 to 2023, $1.4 billion was added to the fusion space, and 13 new startups were added. 975 new jobs have been created in the industry, providing about 3,000 jobs. From 2022 to 2023, the overall global financing scale in the field of controlled nuclear fusion has shown rapid growth.
According to the "2023 Fusion Energy Industry Report" released by the Fusion Energy Industry Association of the United States in July 2023, the number of fusion energy companies will increase by 13 in 2023, bringing the total number to 43. At present, there are 25 nuclear fusion companies in the world, the United States is ahead of other countries, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany have 3 respectively, and China has 4 nuclear fusion companies.
Continental Nuclear Fusion Patent Ranking
No. 1 in the world
In the field of nuclear fusion research, China's presence is growing day by day. In the ranking of nuclear fusion patents compiled by the Tokyo research company Astamuse, China is reported to be in first place ahead of the United States, and the United Kingdom and Japan are ranked third and fourth. The above-mentioned research institute counted the relevant patents filed in 30 countries and regions, including China, Japan, the United States, and Europe, and ranked 1,133 patents published from 2011 to September 2022.
In terms of the nationality of the company applying for the patent and the research institution, China ranks first (and the number of applications is also the first). Since 2015, China has filed a significant increase in important patents, surpassing that of the United States. Among the top 20 patents of companies and research institutes, the Chinese Academy of Sciences' special ceramic composite technology for the inner wall of nuclear fusion furnaces has received the highest evaluation.
The United States ranked second (and the number of applications also ranked second). Among the top 20 companies and research institutes, there are 7 in the United States. In the U.S., technology development is led by the private sector, including start-ups. As of the 00s of this century, the United States was significantly ahead of other countries in terms of the number of patents and so on. But in recent years, China has quickly caught up.
Controlled nuclear fusion
Commercialization accelerated
The scientific feasibility of controlled nuclear fusion has been proven since the 90s of the 20th century, and it has now entered the engineering feasibility verification stage, and once the verification is completed (in 2025, the world's first commercial fusion system for CFS to generate positive energy gain, SPARC, is expected to be completed and put into operation), government and private investment is expected to quickly promote the industry into the commercialization stage. Zheshang Securities said that controllable nuclear fusion has now entered a critical point of development.
The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating. On March 10, according to Xinzhiyuan, the MIT Center for Plasma Science and Nuclear Fusion and the Commonwealth Fusion System (CFS) published a comprehensive report, citing six independent research papers in the March special issue of the IEEE Applied Superconductivity Session, proving that MIT's use of "high-temperature superconducting magnets" and non-insulated designs in the 2021 experiment is feasible and reliable. At the same time, it was verified that the unique superconducting magnet used by the team in the experiment was sufficient to serve as the basis for a nuclear fusion power plant.
While breakthroughs have been made overseas, there has also been a lot of progress at home. In November last year, Jiangxi Lianchuang Optoelectronic Superconducting Application Co., Ltd. and China Nuclear Fusion (Chengdu) Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd. signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation framework agreement. In the same month, the ITER project magnet support products were delivered in Guangzhou. So far, Continental has completed the last batch of magnet support products, laying the foundation for the first major engineering node of the ITER project's first plasma discharge. In August last year, China's new-generation artificial solar "China Circulation-3" achieved high-confinement mode operation under 1 million amperes of plasma current for the first time in trial operation, once again refreshing the operation record of the mainland's magnetic confinement fusion device.
The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is promising. 65% of the 40 fusion companies surveyed by the FIA in The Global Fusion Industry in 2023 believe that they can achieve power transmission to the grid by 2035. According to Maximize Market Research, the global nuclear fusion market size will be $301.25 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $496.55 billion in 2030.
The value of nuclear fusion equipment accounts for a relatively high amount, and the host equipment (including magnets, cladding, vacuum chambers, etc.) accounts for about 30%. Zheshang Securities predicts that the average annual size of the global nuclear fusion equipment market will increase from 20.8 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025 to 91.7 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 and 217.2 billion yuan from 2031 to 2035, with an average annual compound growth rate of 26% from 2023 to 2033.
Some A-share companies have also begun to lay out. On January 29, Yingliu Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to invest in the establishment of a joint venture company to engage in the development, production and sales of fusion reactor materials and components and nuclear detection instruments. China Merchants Securities believes that the company's foreign investment will quickly start the transformation of manufacturing technology and shielding material technology of high heat load components of nuclear fusion unit, cooperate with the major strategy in the field of national energy equipment, and lay the foundation for the company's long-term development.
Lianchuang Optoelectronics said on the conference call at the end of last year that the company participated in the construction of a controllable nuclear fusion project with a 40% stake in Lianchuang Superconductor, mainly as a supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnet system and low-temperature refrigeration system in the construction of the host device of the project, accounting for about half of the construction cost of the host device. This project will further consolidate Lianchuang Superconductor's dominant position in the field of high-temperature superconducting magnets and related technologies.