Before the May Day holiday, the market's sentiment was clearly cautious.
Today, the external market has risen sharply, but the major A-share indices have once again ushered in a comprehensive adjustment. From the perspective of news and market structure, the three major emergencies affect the rhythm of the market to a certain extent.
First of all, in terms of market structure, dividend assets are bearish, coal stocks fell across the board, and the non-ferrous metals and oil sectors that supported the market in the early stage also followed the fall, and the futures market, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures plunged in a straight line in the afternoon, falling more than 8%.
Second, there was a sudden shocking piece of news coming out of the market. According to Jiemian News, it was learned from multiple sources that after the completion of the last round of financing, Yang Zhilin, the founder of Moonshot AI, has cashed out tens of millions of dollars by selling his personal shares. Subsequently, the dark side of the moon responded: The above news is untrue, and the dark side of the moon has previously announced the employee incentive plan, which can be seen in the official information.
Finally, a peripheral news that "the United States may want to attack some Chinese banks" has been circulating in major investment circles. At the moment, though, there is no official information.
So, how much impact do these variables really have on the market?
Fluctuations in the structure
No one may have expected that at the end of last week, many institutions were touting dividend assets, and the last two trading days will be like this. Dividend ETFs fell 2.63% yesterday and fell nearly 1.5% this afternoon. The weight of the coal sector in this sector fell even more amazingly, falling more than 4% yesterday and nearly 3% today.
At the same time, the price of gold also fell sharply. On April 22, local time, spot gold in London fell 2.72% to $2326.810 per ounce, the largest single-day decline in the past two years, COMEX gold futures fell 3.01% to $2341.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.58% to $27.235 per ounce. Today, gold and silver continued to fall sharply, which also drove the overall decline of the non-ferrous sector. In the afternoon today, the main Shanghai tin futures contract plunged in a straight line in the afternoon, falling more than 8%.
Cao Liulong of Founder Securities said that some investors are worried that the release of coal supply in Xinjiang will weigh on coal prices. It is rumored that the freight rate of Xinjiang coal railway has been sharply reduced by 30%, and the potential supply release of Xinjiang coal may impact the cost line of 800 yuan/ton of coal. However, since October last year, coal prices have continued to fall, while coal stock prices have bucked the trend. The logic of coal investment has shifted from "price-driven" to "volume-driven".
The energy security transition, which consumes a lot of electricity, will support coal sales in the long run. Coal is likely to follow the "volume procurement" policy, and it is unlikely that prices will skyrocket, and the medium- to long-term boom will depend on the amount of coal used for power generation (until 2041). The current market of coal is close to that of liquor in 2019, and in 2019, the sales volume of liquor fell but the price rose, and the ROE center was stable.
The belief in "consumption upgrading" has brought about a bubble in the valuation of liquor, and the current coal price has fallen but the sales volume has rebounded, and the ROE center is stable. The need for an "energy security transition" will also drive long-term valuation expansion for coal. In the context of "de-globalization", "safe assets" such as gold, resources, and utilities are still worth having.
Mu Yiling of Minsheng Securities believes that in the context of anti-globalization, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 will further lead to a continuous decline in the proportion of global oil and other resources in terms of trade to consumption, and there is an obvious mismatch between supply and demand in global resources, with copper being the most serious, and other resources such as tin, iron, zinc, and crude oil also have varying degrees of supply and demand mismatch. The allocation value of real assets under de-globalization will systematically move upward.
The shock of the story
While the price volatility of traditional real assets has increased, the "new story" has also had a new impact.
According to Jiemian News, it was learned from multiple sources that after the completion of the last round of financing, Yang Zhilin, the founder of Moonshot AI, has cashed out tens of millions of dollars by selling his personal shares. A person familiar with the matter said that the latest round of financing on the dark side of the moon involved some old stock transactions, but Sequoia and other old shareholders did not sell their shares. "It is rumored that the founder and related personnel have cashed out $40 million. Another investor in the industry said, "It is rare for the company to cash out so much in the first year of its establishment." ”
However, the news of clarification came out quickly. According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the dark side of the moon responded: The above news is untrue, and the dark side of the moon has previously announced the employee incentive plan, which can be seen in the official information.
In March of this year, Kimi's developer, Dark Side of the Moon, released an update. When Kimi intelligent assistant debuted in October 2023, it helped users unlock many new use scenarios with its lossless context capabilities of about 200,000 Chinese characters, including the translation and understanding of professional academic papers, assisting in the analysis of legal issues, sorting out dozens of invoices at one time, and quickly understanding API development documents, etc., gaining a good user reputation and rapid growth in the number of users. The data shows that the number of visits to Kimi has skyrocketed recently. The latest weekly number of visits reached a new high, with 1.83 million visits from March 8 to March 14, an increase of 45% month-on-month. For a while, the market was excited, and it felt that the Chinese version of ChatGPT had finally arrived.
According to public information, Moonshot AI completed its first round of financing three months after its establishment, with a specific amount of more than $200 million. In this round of financing, investors include well-known venture capital institutions Sequoia China, Zhen Fund and Lisi Capital. After this funding round, the Dark Side of the Moon is valued at more than $1.5 billion.
In October 2023, the second round of financing was completed, and nearly RMB 2 billion of investment was received from investment institutions such as Sequoia China, Today Capital, and Lisi Capital. After this round of financing, the valuation of the dark side of the moon reached about $2.5 billion, further consolidating its position as a leading company in the field of large models in China.
In February this year, "Dark Side of the Moon" completed its third round of financing worth more than $1 billion. The scale of this round of financing also set a new record for the largest single financing in the domestic AI field. Investors involved in the financing include Sequoia China, Xiaohongshu, Meituan, Alibaba and other well-known enterprises and investment institutions.
Analysts believe that at present, Yang Zhilin's every move is very critical. If his cash-out is true, it will not only be a big blow to the dark side of the moon, but may also have a greater negative impact on the entire artificial intelligence industry.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu
Proofreading: Wang Chaoquan