In the previous article, the author talked to you about a series of stories about the development of various fighters on the mainland, such as the J-16, J-20 and so on. Today, let's talk about the 24 Su-35 fighters of the PLA Air Force, in 2015 and 2016, 24 Su-35 fighters were delivered one after another, and it has been less than 10 years. However, in the PLA fighter system, the status of the Su-35 fighter has declined across the board. So, can the mainland's 24 Su-35 fighters be resold back to Russia, or resold to other countries?
There are more than 120 Russian Su-35 fighters in total
First of all, let's talk about the background of the mainland's importation of Su-35 fighters. The Su-35 fighter is a single-seat fourth-generation semi-heavy fighter developed by Russia on the basis of the Su-27 fighter. At the moment, it is also one of the absolute main forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In fact, long before the import of Su-35 fighters, the mainland was already a traditional user of Russian fighters. In the 90s, in order to improve the modernization level of the PLA troops, further enhance the air combat capability. Throughout the 90s, the mainland imported more than 70 Su-27 series fighters from Russia in three batches.
From the late 90s to the early 21st, the mainland successively imported 100 Su-30 series fighters from Russia. Relying on import wars does not solve real problems. First, the PLA forces need a huge number of fighters, and the number of imported aircraft is too small. Second, imported fighters are very easy to be controlled by others. So, in the late 90s, after 3 years of difficult negotiations, the mainland imported the production line of Su-27 fighters from Russia. Russia will provide key components, engines and radars, and the mainland will produce 200 Su-27 fighters.
The Su-35 fighter is the absolute workhorse of Russia
The Su-27 fighter domestically produced by the mainland is called the J-11A. The J-11A fighter and the original Su-27 fighter have hardly changed. For the comprehensive performance of the J-11A fighter, the PLA units are not satisfied. In the end, the original plan to produce 200 aircraft was cancelled, and only 105 aircraft were produced on the mainland. At the beginning of the 21st century, the mainland began to greatly upgrade, improve, and perfect the J-11A fighter. Please note that while the mainland is developing the J-11 series of fighters step by step, the J-10A fighter is finalized.
In 2004, the J-10A fighter entered the mass production stage and began to be delivered to the troops. In 2007, the J-11B fighter entered service. From the beginning of production in 2007 to the suspension of production in 2015, more than 320 J-11B series fighters were produced on the mainland, which were equipped with the PLA Air Force and Naval Aviation. It can be seen that the mainland is still very satisfied with the comprehensive performance of the J-11B fighter.
The Su-35 fighter of the PLA Air Force, once the absolute workhorse
Let's look back at the development of PLA fighters around 2013, at that time, J-10A, J-11B and other models belonged to the absolute main models of the PLA Navy and Air Force. In 2013, the J-10B fighter had just been finalized. From the needs of real combat readiness, and at the same time to further understand the development of the level of Russian aviation. In 2015, Continental imported 24 Su-35S fighters from Russia for $2 billion. The contract was complex and included ground handling equipment, spare engines, ground handling and pilot training, software, and more.
In 2015 and 2016, Su-35 fighters were delivered one after another. In the two or three years that the Su-35 fighter has just been delivered, it belongs to the most advanced fighter of the PLA troops, and there is no one. However, this period was short-lived. After 2016, Russia successively sent experts and scientific and technological personnel to the mainland to guide all aspects of the work of the Su-35 fighter. According to the later recollections of Russian technicians: in those years, Russia underestimated the development of aviation technology on the mainland, while we clearly overestimated the technological development of Russia, and there was a "miscalculation of estimates" on both sides.
After receiving the Su-35 fighter and having a comprehensive understanding of the performance and technology, the mainland believes that the Su-35 can be called "stable technology inheritance and normal orderly performance", which is almost impossible to evaluate. Especially after 2016, the main models such as J-16, J-10C, and J-20 have been finalized one after another and began to enter the mass production stage. According to some "revelations", the Su-35, J-16, J-10C and other fighters conducted various confrontational exercises. During the exercises, the Su-35 fighter was "repeatedly shot down" by the J-10C.
Although the Su-35 fighter is highly maneuverable, fighters such as the J-16 and J-10C, relying on powerful radars, can detect the Su-35 first and launch medium-range bombs, making the Su-35 fighter very passive. In 2017 and 2018, after the number of J-16, J-10C and other fighters increased in an all-round way, the status of Su-35 fighters began to decline rapidly. In particular, after the J-20 fighter was put into service, the status of the Su-35 fighter, which mainly focuses on air supremacy, has declined in an all-round way.
Su-30SM fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces
The export of Su-35 fighters to other countries has not been smooth, and in 2018, Egypt signed a contract with Russia to import 24 Su-35 fighters from Russia. But more than a year later, Egypt directly broke the contract and returned 24 fighters. Among them, there are two main reasons, first, the United States exerts pressure on Egypt. Second, France is willing to export Rafale fighters to Egypt. The situation is very similar in India, where Russia has repeatedly marketed Su-35s to India, but India has also opted for French Rafale fighters.
At present, 24 Su-35 fighters have begun to undertake daily patrol and alert tasks in the PLA Air Force units. So, a question arises: Can the mainland's 24 Su-35 fighters be sold back to Russia or resold to other countries? First, Russia is very short of fighters at this stage.
The number of J-16 fighters of the PLA Air Force exceeds 400 units
The Russian Aerospace Forces have more than 120 Su-35 fighters, more than 90 Su-30 fighters, more than 70 Su-27 fighters, more than 120 Su-34 fighter-bombers, more than 100 MiG-29 fighters, more than 80 MiG-31 fighters, more than 600 Su-24 fighter-bombers, and more than 200 Su-25 fighters. Judging by the quantity, the Su-35 fighter belongs to the absolute main model of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
According to foreign media reports, in 2022, since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 20 Su-35 fighters. Of course, this is reported by the European and American media, which Russia did not confirm. Judging from the actual needs of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the production capacity of its own aviation industry, the Russian Aerospace Forces are very much in need of more Su-35 fighters. Therefore, if the mainland's 24 Su-35 fighters are sold back to Russia, Russia will definitely need them. However, there are two practical problems.
PLA Air Force J-11BG fighter
First of all, the mainland's position in the Russian-Ukrainian war has always been the principle of "not taking sides". During the war, the resale of Su-35 fighters back to Russia could trigger a chain reaction on all fronts. Therefore, even if it needs to be sold back to Russia, it will need to be after the end of the war, not during the war. Second, Russia is, after all, a world power, and from the perspective of traditional great power pride, Russia may not accept the Su-35 fighter being sold back to its country, although Russia actually needs it very much.
So, can the Su-35 fighter be resold to other countries? Theoretically, yes, but Russia's consent is required. Because the Su-35 fighter is imported from Russia after all, all kinds of parts and later maintenance work need to be completed by Russia. If the mainland resells 24 Su-35 fighters to other countries, will Russia be willing to provide various parts and components for third countries, later maintenance and other work? In other words, it is necessary to look at the relations between Russia and third countries.
The number of Russian Su-57 fighters is only about 10
Let's make a simple analogy, if the mainland resells 24 Su-25 fighters to Pakistan. Well, Russia, taking into account its good relations with India, will certainly not agree. If the mainland sells 24 Su-35 fighters to North Korea, then the problem is not big, and Russia will definitely be willing to provide a series of services in the later stage. However, the 24 Su-35 fighters that the mainland spent $2 billion on in 2015 have been in service for less than 10 years, and even second-hand fighters are certainly not cheap.
The family of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces
From the point of view of the economic power of the DPRK, it is difficult to purchase the above-mentioned 24 Su-35 fighters. After all, in the 2020s, gratuitous gifts or international aid will certainly not be possible. Therefore, the author believes that the above 24 Su-35 fighters, the greatest possibility, is to continue to serve in the continental air force. After all, there are only 24 aircraft, which are very suitable for daily training, vigilance patrols, expelling foreign aircraft and other tasks.
PLA J-20 fighter formation
A series of stories about the development of fighters in the PLA Air Force, and many more. The author will talk to you slowly in future articles.