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How will the "hush money" case affect Trump?

author:Interface News

Reporter | Anjing

Editor|Liu Haichuan

On April 22, 2024 local time, the first day of trial began for the "hush money" case, one of the four major criminal indictments of former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Trump appeared in court under the protection of Secret Service agents.

Trump thus became the first former president in U.S. history to be criminally tried. Compared with the other three criminal prosecution cases, the severity of the "hush money" case is the lightest. However, due to the delay in other criminal cases, the "hush money" case may become the only criminal case that can be tried before the vote in the US presidential election in November.

In the "hush money" case, Trump faces 34 felony charges. According to the U.S. Constitution's rules on presidential qualifications, even if Trump is convicted, it will not affect his candidacy.

But in an election year, the criminal case against Trump will inevitably be closely tied to politics.

The hush money trial will last more than a month, meaning that Trump will be absent from a series of election canvassing activities. And Trump's opponent, US President Joseph Biden, has already participated in canvassing in all key swing states. In addition, the outcome of the "hush money" trial will also affect the perception of Trump by some voters.

The first day of the hearing

On Monday, security was tightened at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, which is responsible for the trial of the former president of the United States, with Secret Service agents and police patrolling the courtroom. On Friday, a conspiracy theory supporter accusing Trump of preparing a coup d'état set himself on fire outside the courthouse and died.

Because New York State is a traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party, it took a full week to select 12 jurors and six substitutes who were not politically biased against Trump. Jury selection was difficult for a while, and two-thirds of the candidates were eliminated in the first hurdle. The final 12 jurors will decide whether Trump is convicted or not, and once the jury finds him, the judge will be responsible for sentencing.

How will the "hush money" case affect Trump?

In the "hush money" case, Trump was accused of paying $130,000 in "hush money" to actress Stormy Daniels through former personal lawyer Michael Cohen during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, in order to prevent the exposure of Daniels' peach scandal with Trump from affecting the 2016 election. In a 2018 television interview, Daniels said he had had an affair with Trump in 2006 and received "hush money" from Cohen in 2016.

But the "hush money" itself is not illegal, and Manhattan prosecutors have focused on Trump falsifying business records after being elected president of the United States to repay Cohen's $130,000 in installments in the name of "attorney fees."

Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York State, but it would be a felony if the purpose of forging business records was to cover up other criminal activity. Manhattan prosecutors indicted Trump on 34 felony counts, accusing Trump of falsifying business records to cover up negative news in order to influence voting in the 2016 election.

In addition to paying Daniels "hush money", Manhattan prosecutors also accused Trump and former publisher of The National Inquirer and American gossip tycoon David Peck of carrying out a "hunt and kill plan" during the 2016 election: to detect any negative news that is not conducive to Trump's candidacy in advance, and pay to buy it out to prevent the relevant news from being exposed by other media.

The indictment alleges that Trump met privately with Peck at Trump Tower after being elected president of the United States, thanking him for handling the peachy scandal of former Playboy model Karen McDowell and what a foyer receptionist called the illegitimate child scandal.

At present, Peck and Trump have turned against each other and are assisting Manhattan prosecutors in their investigation. The American media company, the parent company of The National Enquirer, has admitted to paying $150,000 in "hush money" to McDongo, who he said had an affair with Trump from 2006 to 2007. A foyer receptionist also claimed that Trump had an illegitimate child and that American media companies had paid him $30,000 in "hush money."

The porter receptionist's claim that the illegitimate child had been confirmed to be false, and Trump denied having an affair with McDougo and Daniels. After that, both McDougo and Daniels will appear in court as key witnesses in the "hush money" case. Mr. Cohen, Trump's former personal lawyer, pleaded guilty to violating campaign finance laws and other charges in 2018 and sentenced him to three years in prison, and he may also appear as a key witness.

In the first trial session on Monday, Manhattan prosecutors and Trump's lawyers made separate opening statements.

Manhattan District Attorney Matthew Colangelo accused Trump of falsifying business records to pay "hush money" and prevent negative news from leaking out as a "planned, organized, and long-term conspiracy" to influence the 2016 presidential election. Colangelo believes that Trump's actions amounted to "election fraud."

Todd Blanche, one of Trump's defense lawyers, reiterated Trump's innocence and argued that the Manhattan District Attorney's Office should not have filed a lawsuit at all. Blanche said that the "hunt and kill plan" is a common PR tactic used by politicians and celebrities, and that trying to influence the election is not a crime, but a "democratic" act.

He stressed that Mr. Cohen, Trump's former personal lawyer, was solely responsible for the "hush money" and that Trump did not know the specifics. Blanche also questioned Cohen's credibility as a witness, noting that Cohen had lied many times during previous court appearances. He said Mr. Cohen was hell-bent on serving in the U.S. government and that he had failed to get his revenge on Mr. Trump.

The gossip tycoon Peck, the gossip tycoon who appeared in court on Monday, confirmed that his subordinate media bought out negative news to prevent it from being exposed by other media outlets. But Mr. Peck's testimony on Monday was brief and did not address what prosecutors said was a conspiracy with Mr. Trump. Prosecutors allege that Mr. Trump, Mr. Peck and Mr. Cohen had a secret conversation at Trump Tower back in 2015, in which Mr. Peck agreed to act as Mr. Trump's eyeliner in the presidential election.

After less than half an hour of testimony, Peck greeted Trump with a smile, according to CNN News. At the trial that day, Trump looked serious, shaking his head in opposition from time to time but did not speak. When Peck testified, Trump spoke with lawyers around him many times and took notes on paper.

Electoral politics

All of the 34 felony charges Trump faces are related to falsifying business records. The charges are Class E, the lowest felony in New York State, and each carries a maximum of four years in prison. But New York State has set a maximum of 20 years in prison for falsifying business records, and the judge will determine the exact length of the sentence.

It is widely believed in the American legal community that if Trump is convicted by a jury in the "hush money" case, the judge will have two options. Because Trump has no criminal record and is guilty of nonviolent crimes, judges usually give lenient sentences, up to four years in prison.

The second option is probation to avoid the controversial verdict that sent the former president of the United States to prison. No former U.S. president has ever served a prison sentence before, and legal professionals have pointed out that the former U.S. president has many state secrets, and once he is sent to prison, it will become an intelligence treasure trove for other countries to dig up.

Nor does the U.S. Constitution prohibit criminals from running for president or running in general elections. According to the U.S. Constitution, there are only three conditions to be president: a natural-born U.S. citizen, at least 35 years of age, and at least 14 years of residence in the United States. Even if Trump is convicted, Mr. Trump's legal team will appeal. Because of the lengthy legal process, it is unlikely that Mr. Trump will serve a prison sentence before voting in the November presidential election.

But the hush money case will last six to eight weeks. During this period, Trump must appear in court every weekday except Wednesdays, holidays and weekends. Such an arrangement severely limited Trump's campaign for the presidency. Last week, Trump reported to the Manhattan courthouse when Biden traveled to Pennsylvania, a key swing state, to canvass for votes for three days straight.

Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa mocked that Trump will focus on "his own problems" and the Biden campaign will focus on the American people and how to win votes in November.

Trump has repeatedly posted on social media accusing Democrats of deliberately filing a lawsuit against him during an election canvassing campaign "as a witch hunt to interfere in the election!!

Trump, who is adept at turning crises into approval ratings, is also turning the hush money case into a good opportunity to pull sponsorship. The Trump team has announced that a fundraiser will be held in Florida next week, which is expected to raise $33 million.

For Trump fans, no matter what the verdict in the "hush money" case is, it will not affect Trump's position. After the FBI raided Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in 2022, the small donations received by Trump's team soared.

But for some independent voters and traditional Republican voters, if Trump becomes the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a criminal crime, it should affect his political future.

According to a survey released last week by pollster You Gov, 35 percent of independent voters believe that if Trump is convicted in the hush money case, it will have a serious or somewhat negative impact on his political future. Twenty-seven percent of Republican voters agreed, compared to 51 percent of Democratic voters.

Independent voters are not unanimous on whether Trump should be convicted. Thirty-eight percent of independent voters believe Trump should be convicted, 30 percent think he shouldn't, and 31 percent aren't sure. The distinction between Republican and Democratic voters is clear, with 77 percent of Republican voters saying it shouldn't and 80 percent of Democratic voters saying it should.

How will the "hush money" case affect Trump?

In addition to the "hush money" case, Trump is also facing three criminal charges on suspicion of secretly possessing classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, allegedly participating in the overturning of the results of the 2020 presidential election, and allegedly overturning the results of the 2020 election in Georgia.

The nature of all three criminal cases is more serious than the "hush money" case, and Trump's legal team launched a series of appeals to postpone the trial. The "classified documents" case was originally scheduled to go to trial in May, but the judge has agreed to postpone the trial, the exact date of which is to be determined.

In February, Trump's team appealed the 2020 federal election case to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the president enjoyed absolute immunity while in office. The Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on Thursday, and even if the Supreme Court rejects absolute immunity, the chances of a federal election hearing before November are low.

In Georgia, the criminal prosecution against Trump has gone unexpectedly.

Fani Wiley, the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, who resigned last month, was revealed to have had an extramarital affair with his fellow special counsel, Nathan Wade, who resigned last month, after the two had a possible misjudgment in the Trump case. The turmoil has further delayed the state's criminal indictment of Trump.

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