Source: Xiaofang said the workplace
In 2024, the first iron rice bowl to be broken may be teachers.
For a long time, the teaching position has been regarded as a golden job, with thirteen salaries, winter and summer vacations, high stability...
Countless people flock to it.
But now, things are starting to change.
Teachers are facing the problem of fierce competition and surplus positions, and many places have explored the withdrawal mechanism of teachers to break the concept of "iron rice bowls" for teachers.
What is this teacher withdrawal mechanism?
To put it simply, if the teacher does not do his job properly, he may be fired.
Although the exit mechanism sounds a little better, it is actually "graduation from a large factory" and disguised layoffs.
This also means that teaching positions are likely to become the same as ordinary professions, subject to competition and elimination.
At the same time, 10 million people in China are working day and night to get their teaching certificates. Before the feet of the tens of millions of "reserve troops" were raised, the gate was ready to close.
In 2012, there were only 172,000 applicants for the teacher qualification exam, but in 2022, this number has skyrocketed to 11.442 million, an increase of more than 65 times in 10 years.
However, the country's newly-born population continues to decline, except for a short wave of small birth peaks brought about by the "comprehensive two-child" policy in 2016, and the demand for degrees brought by this small peak is mainly concentrated in 2023 and 2024.
And this is only a short-term phenomenon, and the longer-term data already tells us that with the arrival of the demographic inflection point, not only teachers, but also schools will have to reconsider their way out.
Since 2022, the number of newborns in the country has fallen below the 10 million mark, nearly 10 million fewer than 10 years ago. Such a huge number is indeed shocking enough.
The sudden drop in the number of births has directly led to a decrease in the number of students.
There are fewer students, so there is naturally a surplus of teacher positions.
For example, if we think of education as an economic industry, let's say farming. If the efficiency of the people who farm the land has never improved, then you will find that the matter of farming is: how much land, how many people cooperate with the land, and the simple superposition between people and land.
Looking at the education industry again, it is: how many students there are, how many teachers should cooperate, and the number of teachers and students is also positively correlated.
According to the results of Qiao Jinzhong's research team from the Institute of Higher Education, Faculty of Education, Beijing Normal University:
By 2035, there will be a surplus of about 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 junior high school teachers in the country.
Therefore, the iron rice bowl that will inevitably be broken in the system is that teachers, from primary and secondary school teachers to teachers in colleges and universities, will face the risk of unemployment in the future.
So, if you choose to become a teacher, how should you avoid the "risk of unemployment" in advance, how do you want to leave the teaching system, and how should you plan for the future?
Let's talk about it briefly.
01. Teachers can follow two principles to avoid the risk of unemployment
At present, the wave of kindergarten closures has appeared, and in the future, it will be the closure of primary schools, middle schools, and universities... The closure of universities has already occurred in Japan and South Korea, where the fertility rate is about the same as ours:
The situation in China will be similar in the future, in this case, if you choose to become a teacher, you must avoid the "risk of unemployment" in advance and follow the following principles:
1. Priority is given to the selection of teacher positions within the system.
There is a compilation, and there is no compilation, corresponding to two different identities, and also corresponding to different ways of dealing with it in the future.
Teachers who do not have a staff membership, once their contracts are terminated in the future, they will need to be "re-employed" by themselves, just like being "laid off" in the company.
To tell the truth, if the skill of teachers is unemployed in middle age, it is difficult to re-employ in the context of a comprehensive crackdown on "education and training", because there is no need, there are fewer and fewer students, fewer and fewer schools, and the demand is completely shrinking.
However, if there are teachers with a staff, even if the school is closed, the teachers will be "relocated", and there will be relevant compensation + pension in the system, which may not be too high, but it will definitely ensure that you can "afford to eat and see a doctor", and your basic living needs can be guaranteed.
2. If all of them are unstaffed positions, priority should be given to developed areas and priority to central cities.
The flow of Chinese population has always been from rural to urban areas, from small cities to large cities. The "wave of closures" of rural primary schools in China has already begun, because most of the children are studying in urban areas.
Although it is less difficult to compete for jobs in remote areas, the risk of unemployment in the future is also greater.
So, if you choose to follow the path of teaching, be sure to compete for positions in developed regions.
02. Be sure to plan your way out in advance You need to see these 3 points clearly
The unemployment of some teachers will be an inevitable phenomenon in the next 20 years.
This is the same as the "wave of layoffs" of state-owned enterprises in the 90s, which is an unavoidable "pain of the times" in the context of population decline.
If you are a teacher and feel that you are at risk of losing your job, it is best to plan ahead and take precautions by looking at these 3 points:
1. The current job market, 35 years old, is a "hurdle".
Before the age of 35, you can take the public examination and submit your resume in the job market, but after the age of 35, you have few options.
2. If you are before the age of 35, you can strive for other opportunities to enter the system according to your profession and strengths.
Because the total number of administrative and career editors is not so large, the overall stability is guaranteed. (Among them, the stability of civil servants is the strongest, with China's population of 1.4 billion and the number of civil servants of 7.1 million, which is really not much)
After all, from what I know about the teaching community, most of them are stable and in the system, and entering the system is still one of the best employment options for them.
In addition, some teachers have advantages in taking the public examination, Chinese teachers are good at speech and writing, and mathematics teachers are good at logic, qualifications and quantity.
3. If there is no longer an opportunity to take the exam, you have to plan to change careers in other directions.
Regarding changing careers, everyone has different advantages, and it is necessary to look for opportunities according to their own strengths:
For example, if your family is in a rural area and there are some agricultural products in the local area, then you can try to shoot videos to promote and sell agricultural products. (There are many video anchors selling local fruits on the Internet, as long as they accumulate tens of thousands of followers, they will not worry about sales)
Or, if you are good at baking, then you can make your own dim sum and sell it on your friends or at a stall.
Or, you go to learn video editing and do "live slicing" for well-known head anchors, and those who do well will have a good monthly income.
There is a basic premise for planning a career change: low investment and controllable risks.
You mainly invest your time and energy, invest a small amount of money, and don't spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to open a store or invest as soon as you come up, because there is a high probability of "losing all your money".
03, the three-foot podium can keep the people who love it
The ebb and flow of the teaching profession is an inevitable trend. But the tide receded, and it was clear who was swimming naked.
At the beginning, these five types of teachers will be cleared out of the teaching ranks, and the iron rice bowl will be the first to be broken.
The first is a teacher whose morals are corrupt.
The actions of these teachers have seriously disrupted the harmonious atmosphere on the campus and have had an extremely negative impact on the students. Their very existence is an educational hazard that must be removed.
The second is teachers who have violated the law in their duties.
These teachers have taken advantage of their positions to engage in illegal activities, which not only disrupt the normal teaching order, but also harm the legitimate rights and interests of students. We must punish such acts severely.
In addition, there are two types of teachers, those with insufficient academic qualifications and low ability.
The former may not have the proper teaching qualifications for various reasons, while the latter may have a decline in teaching ability for various reasons. However, in either case, they may not be able to perform their teaching tasks, which will affect the learning effectiveness and quality of education of students, so they need to be resolutely cleaned up.
Finally, those teachers who have a tendency to severely punish students.
Teachers do need some disciplinary measures when managing students, but excessive discipline will not only harm students' physical and mental health, but also may cause a series of social problems. Therefore, these teachers also need to be educated and punished accordingly.
Of course, if you really like to be a gardener who is the flower of the motherland, you don't have to panic about it.
Without the titles of high salaries and establishments, the teaching profession will eventually return to the essence of educating people.
The three-foot podium may not be able to "save" those who are determined to go ashore, but it can keep those who love it.
One thing is for sure, excellent teachers remain the most valuable resource in the education industry.
Instead of worrying, you should be proactive.
After all, times are changing, and each of us needs to keep up with them. Although the iron rice bowl may no longer be available, change is also an opportunity for growth.