The corn market is in disarray, and the pig market is in chaos.
Although the pig price was not weak in the off-season, the dumb fire of Qingming once again proved that consumption was pulling the hips, and the market sentiment also cooled down, and the trend of pig prices in the second quarter also began to cause controversy.
The focus of the controversy is still about the "inflection point" of the pig market.
According to the original view, although consumption is sluggish, but the overall recovery is also revival, and the pig is declining in terms of production capacity and inventory, slaughter, etc., and the current pig market has been grinding for a long time, so with the improvement of supply and demand and the demand for sentiment, there is a great chance of reversal in the pig market.
But the other point of view is much more cautious, on the one hand, although the indicators are declining, but the supply is still huge, and consumption is still fragile, so the pig market is still in excess of demand, the upper rebound is not large, the overall reversal is doubtful.
Especially after entering April, the price of pigs has risen significantly, and the center of gravity is also declining, once sliding to the edge of 15 yuan/kg.
And just when it was about to fall below 15 yuan/kg, it suddenly rose again.
This makes the market even more confused, can pig prices still rise?
At a time when the market is gloomy, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently gave a prediction of the pig market at the press conference of the State Council Information Office.
First of all, the supply pressure in the hog market is indeed decreasing.
This year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity (Revised in 2024)", which adjusted the target of the normal number of sows that can reproduce in the country from 41 million to 39 million, which is revised according to the market consumption trend.
Judging from the relevant data in the first quarter, the indicators are indeed declining.
For example, in the first quarter, the national breeding sow herd was 39.92 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%;
In the first quarter, the national pork output was 15.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%;
As of the end of March, the number of large pigs in the national scale farm fell by 3% year-on-year.
These data are showing that the supply pressure in the pig market is easing, and reflected in the pig price, as of mid-April, the national average price of live pigs was 15.4 yuan / kg, up 5.3% year-on-year.
The next pig price trend has also given a prediction, that is, the relationship between supply and demand in the pig market will be further improved in the second quarter, and pig breeding may turn losses into profits.
First, the supply pressure is further reduced.
Although there is not much room for decentralization in terms of production capacity, judging from the inventory of sows that can reproduce at the end of March, compared with the newly revised production capacity data, it has been at 102.4% of the new normal holdings, which belongs to the green and reasonable area of capacity control.
Due to the decline in the number of medium and large pigs, the number of pigs slaughtered in the next two months may also decrease.
In addition, the number of newborn piglets began to decrease from October last year, and it did not begin to rise until March this year. Corresponding to the fattening of piglets in about 6 months, it also means that the supply of live pigs in the second quarter is expected to decline further.
Second, consumption is also on the rise.
Although the market has been shouting that consumption is weak, and the current consumption is indeed unable to hold up, with the recovery and recovery of the economy as a whole, the consumption level is also on the rise.
Third, the bullish sentiment in the market is still very high.
In particular, the pig loss time is too long, whether it is looking forward to the rise or bullish sentiment is very high, the willingness to press the fence price is also relatively strong, so in the case of the superposition of these factors, the probability of pig prices rising in the second quarter is larger, and pig breeding is likely to turn losses into profits.
But the new question arises, how long can this rally last, or how long can profits last?
There is also a lot of controversy in the market about this issue.
However, the general view is that it may be difficult to sustain it forever, that is, there is an expectation of a rebound in pig prices, but a full reversal may be difficult.
For example, although it is approaching May Day, the market sentiment has begun to be excited again, and the pig prices that have been falling endlessly in the past two days have suddenly risen, which also makes people feel that the pig price market is not about to break out.
But it still needs to be viewed cautiously, May Day does not rule out repeating the mistakes of Qingming, and the reason is still consumption.
The small long holiday drives tourism and catering consumption, but the family fresh meat consumption is not obvious, so the support for pig prices is limited in essence.
Of course, it is also possible to get out of the situation of rising before the holiday and falling after the holiday, and this has been staged many times last year, so it is not surprising.
Therefore, the view of the pig market is also cautious, and experts also make it clear that the center of gravity of pig prices in 2024 will be better than in 2023, and the market in the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year, but the market is likely to improve rather than reverse.
Therefore, farmers should reasonably grasp the rhythm and slaughter in a timely manner, and the focus of this year is not to make a profit, but to reduce risks.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!