Wheat fell miserably.
also responded to the "crow's mouth" two days ago:
One is that wheat is indeed much more risky than corn.
It's not about the price, it's about the trend.
Although corn is also falling, there is still support, such as the support at the policy level, and the supply and demand side is generally in a tight balance.
Although wheat is said to be a ration, it will not be left alone, but at least for now, the clear intervention of the policy side has not been seen, and the pattern of wheat is strong supply and weak demand.
Therefore, the pathos of wheat is greater than that of corn.
Second, the second decline is indeed frightening.
As the saying goes, one fall breaks a person's intestines, and the second fall kills a person, which is not false at all.
Sure enough, after a brief rally, wheat fell again, and the decline was more violent than the market expected.
Not only did the quotation of many companies fall below the important threshold of 1.3 yuan / catty, but also many large enterprises, and many enterprises began to stop collecting.
What's worse is that it doesn't seem to have any intention of stopping.
On the one hand, the auction of policy wheat continues, although the volume is smaller than before, but it is even more crazy.
On the other hand, the transaction rate is declining, and the transaction price is also declining.
For a while, the wheat market was in mourning, and we couldn't help but ask, what happened to the wheat?
Only by figuring out why wheat has fallen sharply can we figure out where the bottom of wheat is, or can wheat still be saved?
First, the sharp drop in wheat can be said to be the inevitable result of the current market trend.
It is not surprising that wheat has fallen sharply again. Because we have mentioned more than once before that the risk of wheat is very high, and the risk of a second fall cannot be ruled out, and the second fall is often more violent than the first.
In fact, wheat does develop according to this logic.
But it is inaccurate for the market to attribute the sharp drop in wheat to too weak demand. Because the strong supply and weak demand of wheat has not just happened, but has always existed, why haven't we seen a sharp drop in wheat before?
So the real reason is that the policy wheat continues to be auctioned, and it has begun to exchange price for volume.
So why is it an inevitable consequence?
Because if you follow the normal rhythm of bidding, the market still has a certain digestion capacity, but as the new wheat is getting closer and closer, the task is getting tighter and tighter, and there is a high probability that there will be a situation of exchanging price for volume, which can be said to be almost unavoidable.
And the more price is exchanged for volume, the more it falls into a vicious circle.
The demand was not strong, and the more urgent the auction, the less anxious the company was to acquire, but there was a suspension of revenue.
Is it because the collection is full?
Of course not, the bigger reason is that under the crazy volume of auctions, the transaction rate has been declining, and companies have reduced their willingness to purchase, waiting for further price reductions in the auction.
As a result, the wheat is getting more and more urgent, the transaction rate is getting lower and lower, the price is getting lower and lower, and no one dares to harvest it.
Second, the mentality of the main body of grain has collapsed.
Before, there were some grain holders who had a high price mentality and wanted to gamble, although wheat was also weak before, but it was generally swaying, and there were expectations.
But as the saying goes, the trend is overwhelming, according to the current decline of wheat, it is difficult to hold the mentality of still having grain in hand, plus the new wheat harvest is still blowing the wind, borrowing Xiaozhuang's words to Huang Taiji, whose idea can be so determined?
In the face of such a decline, which grain-holding entity would have such a fixed mentality?
The mentality collapsed, so he also began to stop the loss of food.
Supply pressure is increasing, pessimism is growing, and expectations for new wheat are getting worse and worse, and the sentiment of the wheat market can be said to have collapsed like this, so the wheat is pouring like opening the floodgates.
So, can wheat still get better?
It depends on 3 things:
One is when the mood can be calm.
Whether it is joy or panic, it will not be the norm, and eventually the mood will return to normal, and then the wheat market will return to its original state.
What was it like?
Supply is still strong and demand is weak, but at least it will not collapse.
The second is to see when the auction can end.
Look at this should also be the darkness before dawn, as the saying goes, things must be reversed, and with the end of the auction, wheat will also return to the normal market.
The third is to pay attention to the production of new wheat.
Instead of paying attention to the new wheat market, it is better to pay attention to the new wheat production, the market is often people's subjective expectations, and the production is often objective, and determines the subsequent wheat fluctuation range.
As for Chen Mai, we still believe that Chen Mai will rise, especially after Xinmai is listed and the auction is nearing the end, Chen Mai's advantages have begun to appear.
It's just that how many people can wait!
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!