According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, in the first half of April, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in mainland China reached 50.39%, surpassing that of traditional fuel passenger vehicles for the first time. Although it has been recognized by all parties that the development of new energy vehicles is unstoppable, and it is only a matter of time before they replace fuel vehicles, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has surpassed that of fuel vehicles for the first time, making people who buy fuel vehicles officially a minority, which is undoubtedly more "milestone" significance.
In fact, looking back on the development of the auto market over the years, the road ahead of China's new energy vehicles is actually full of ups and downs. From 2005 to 2015, it took 10 years for the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to exceed 1%, and in 2019, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 5%. The turning point occurred in 2020, as many new energy vehicle companies and new car manufacturers began to emerge, which made the market segment also grow rapidly, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 14% in 2021, 27% in 2022, and 33% in 2023.
Joint venture fuel vehicle "decline"
As we all know, the automobile market has always been "one eliminates the other", and the explosive growth of new energy vehicles also reflects the decline of fuel vehicles, more precisely, it should be the decline of joint venture fuel vehicles. After all, ten years ago, the domestic automobile market was still dominated by joint venture fuel vehicles, but "30 years in Hedong, 30 years in Hexi", taking advantage of the east wind of new energy vehicles, independent brands overtook in this smooth track, and the scenery of joint venture fuel vehicles was no more.
Especially after entering 2024, BYD has taken the lead in setting off a big price cut of "electricity is lower than oil", which makes the automobile market more involuted: less than 70,000 yuan Seagull, less than 80,000 yuan Qin PLUS DM-i, less than 130,000 Song PLUS DM-i...... The extreme cost performance also makes it impossible for other new energy vehicles to stand alone. In this wave of price cuts, the living space of fuel vehicles has been further squeezed, although Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and other car companies are cutting prices significantly, but it is still difficult to hide the decline in sales. According to the data, in March this year, Honda Accord fell by 72.6%, Corolla fell by 54.4%, and Volkswagen Lavida fell by 36.4%.
It can be said that under the leading impact of this wave of domestic new energy vehicles, joint venture fuel vehicles have been hit hard, and even some brands have withdrawn from the Chinese market. Not to mention that its value retention rate is declining, second-hand car prices are also collapsing, and more importantly, many 4S stores of joint ventures have ushered in a large number of closures, and then consumer disputes and rights protection incidents have also revealed that the fuel vehicle industry chain is gradually collapsing in the change.
New energy vehicles have gradually become the "first choice" of consumers
There is no doubt that under the continuous failure of joint venture fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have gradually grown into the "first choice" of consumers to buy cars. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 9.587 million units and 9.495 million units, respectively, an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year.
With a penetration rate of more than 50%, new energy vehicles have become the mainstream of the market. According to the law of Weber-Fechner in psychology, this will change the awareness and acceptance of new energy vehicles by mass consumer groups, and will also realize the reversal and gradual replacement of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles.
Of course, the change in consumer awareness and acceptance, in addition to the price, is more important because the advantages of new energy itself cannot be ignored. For example, in terms of power performance, new energy vehicles will be better than fuel vehicles, after all, the power output of the former is more linear, and the motor can quickly realize the switching between stationary and rotation during the whole driving process, there is no idle speed, and there is no such thing as a gearbox, so the motor will turn as fast as the car runs, and the whole process is especially smooth. If you have a charging pile at home, you can charge it anytime and anywhere, plug in the charging gun when you get home, and you can go out and unplug it, which is especially convenient to use, and the electricity cost is much cheaper than the fuel cost, which is no wonder everyone always says that after driving a tram, it is difficult to change back to a fuel car.
The technology of new energy has formed a "suppression"
Now it seems that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is indeed unstoppable, after all, it has been in power, quietness, intelligence and other aspects have also surpassed traditional fuel vehicles, forming a technical "suppression".
A typical example is that under the condition that the joint venture brand continues to use hard plastic interiors, old car machine systems, and even entry-level models are not equipped with a central control screen, it is not an exaggeration to say that the products of new energy vehicles are ahead of the times. In terms of higher-level intelligent configuration, the new energy vehicle machine has used the 8295 chip, L2 driving assistance is standard, and there are also lidar and high computing power chip blessings, in short, it is better than the joint venture fuel vehicle in all aspects.
Not to mention that today's new energy vehicles also have a lot of choices in power, pure electric, plug-in hybrid and range extender have a lot of fans, the latter two are not battery life anxiety, in the current overall convenience is better than pure electric and pure fuel vehicles. Take BYD DM-i plug-in hybrid technology as an example, it is a set of fuel, plug-in, range extension, pure electric functions in one, with electricity as the mainstay, supplemented by the engine, that is to say, the vast majority of vehicles under working conditions are driven by the traction motor, which also makes the DM-i model can have a pure electric driving experience, while minimizing fuel consumption, plus it also makes a breakthrough in the price barrier, and strives to launch a plug-in hybrid car that everyone can afford, such as Qin PLUS The entry-level version of the DM-i has been as low as 79,800 yuan, and the fuel consumption is high, and the price and cost of the fuel car have become uncompetitive in comparison.
Write at the end
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has increased rapidly, increasing by 10 times in five years, and the national planning target of 50% has been completed 11 years ahead of schedule. This goal has been achieved faster than we imagined, and in the final analysis, new energy vehicles have been recognized by most people both from the technical level and from the user psychological level. With the gradual increase in the penetration rate of new energy, it also means that new energy vehicles have shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.