【SMM Metal Morning Reference】Metals fell in general precious metals, and Lunxi led the decline| Interpretation of metal import and export data | Copper supply, demand and price outlook for 2024
》[Copper Summit Live Broadcast] 2024 Copper Market Supply and Demand and Price Outlook Analysis of the Global Economic Situation Interpretation of the import and export policy of recycled copper
►The European Central Bank released a hawk overnight, and copper prices fell back [SMM copper morning meeting minutes]
►The market's concerns about the conflict in the Middle East have eased, and Shanghai Aluminum closed down slightly overnight [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
►The alumina disk has fallen, but there is still room for futures and spot arbitrage, and the short-term spot price may be strong and volatile
►Overnight lead both closed down, and the trend of consumption off-season was significant [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]
►London zinc fluctuates at a high level, pay attention to the follow-up overseas manufacturing data [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Shanghai tin prices have rebounded slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has picked up [SMM Tin Morning News]
►The cost of ferronickel is supported firmly, and the stainless steel disk fluctuates and strengthens [SMM nickel morning meeting minutes]
►Lithium hydroxide prices are running steadily, and the supply and demand situation of the industry is tight to maintain [SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Steel mills have holiday replenishment needs, which has certain support for mine prices [SMM Steel Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Polysilicon prices fell slightly, N-type cell production increased in May [SMM silicon-based photovoltaic morning meeting minutes]
In terms of the metal market:
Base metals fell across the board overnight, with Shanghai lead falling 2.52%. Shanghai tin fell 2.52%. Shanghai copper fell 0.92%. Shanghai nickel, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc all fell slightly. Alumina fell 0.4%.
Overnight, the black series was mostly green, iron ore and threads fell slightly, stainless steel fell 1.59%, and hot coil rose slightly by 0.03%. Coking coal fell 0.03%, coke rose 0.33%,
Overnight, LME metals fell almost across the board, and London nickel rose 1.81%. Lunxi fell 3.6%, and Lunxi fell 2.64%. London zinc fell 0.89%, and London aluminum fell 0.41%. London copper fell 0.23%.
In terms of precious metals overnight, Shanghai gold fell 2.19%, and Shanghai silver fell 3.38%. COMEX gold fell 3.01% and COMEX silver fell 5.58%. Precious metals futures fell sharply as concerns about the conflict in the Middle East eased, prompting them to reduce risk-off trades.
As of 6:50 on April 23, the market closed overnight
>> SMM metal spot price on April 22
Macroscopic
On the dollar front: The dollar index rose 0.02% to 106.14 overnight. Markets are now awaiting Friday's release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts. The market expects the US core PCE price index to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in March. The main economic focus this week will also be on the US GDP data due on Thursday. Fed officials are currently in a quiet period ahead of the April 30-May 1 meeting.
In terms of data:
Today, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the euro area in April, the revised monthly rate of construction permits in the United States in March, and the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI in April in the United States will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the OECD will publish a study on the French economy.
Crude oil: Both oil futures fell slightly overnight, with U.S. oil down 0.1% and Brent oil down 0.16%. The market is focused on fundamentals and sees little short-term risk of the Middle East conflict affecting supply. The analysis found that some of the most productive crude grades were in sufficient supply, limiting the impact of the conflict on crude oil futures.
NYMEX New York Crude Oil May Futures will be affected by the rollover of the month, and the last trading on the floor will be completed at 2:30 on April 23, and the final trading of the electronic disk will be completed at 5:00 a.m. In addition, some trading platforms usually expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX contract, so please pay more attention.
》Metals fell nearly across the board, London nickel rose 1.81%, London tin fell 3.6%, COMEX silver fell more than 5% [overnight market]
List of total inventories of base metals in LME base metal storage on April 22 (unit: tonnes)
List of LME Base Metals Registration and Cancellation Warehouse Receipts on April 22 (Unit: Tons)
[Li Qiang: Strive to improve the quality of listed companies and strictly control the issuance and listing access] The State Council conducted the seventh special study with the theme of "further deepening the reform of the capital market and promoting the steady and healthy development of the capital market". After listening to the lecture and exchanging speeches, Li Qiang pointed out that the capital market is an important part of the modern financial system. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the mainland's capital market has accelerated its development and played an important role in promoting the optimal allocation of resources, supporting scientific and technological innovation, and promoting economic and social development. To do a good job in the capital market, it is not only very comprehensive, overall, but also very professional. It is necessary to understand the basic laws governing the operation of the capital market with a systematic concept and professional thinking, grasp the phased characteristics of the mainland's capital market from the perspective of history and development, be good at learning from advanced international experience, and always adhere to the principle of basing ourselves on the national conditions and adapting measures to the current situation, pay more attention to using market concepts to design rules and formulate policies, and continue to deepen the reform of the capital market. >> Click here for details
[On the issuance of savings treasury bonds, special treasury bonds, and fiscal policies, the Ministry of Finance made a heavy statement!] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first quarter of 2024. Li Xianzhong, director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 22nd that he would pay close attention to the changes in the supply and demand relationship and sales of savings treasury bonds, and study the appropriate increase in the scale of issuance. Wang Jianfan, director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at the press conference that in the first quarter of 2024, all localities will issue special bonds within the new special debt limit issued in advance, which will be mainly used for the construction of projects in key areas determined by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, such as municipal construction and industrial park infrastructure, social undertakings, transportation infrastructure, and affordable housing projects, and have played a positive role in strengthening the foundation, making up for shortcomings, benefiting people's livelihood, and expanding investment. The issuance scale in the first quarter is smaller than in previous years, on the one hand, in response to the impact of special factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the increase in the scale of issuance at the beginning of the year, on the other hand, it is also related to the demand for local project construction funds, construction conditions in winter and spring, bond market interest rates and other factors, at the same time, we have also done a lot of work in improving the quality of special bond projects and strengthening the preliminary preparation of projects. Wang Dongwei, vice minister of the Ministry of Finance, said that the Ministry of Finance will make overall plans to make good use of policy tools such as the issuance of additional treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and investment in the central budget to promote the construction of key areas and major projects. The next step will be to work with relevant departments to support some large and medium-sized cities to implement urban renewal actions and carry out the renewal and transformation of underground pipe networks. >> Click here for details
As of Monday, April 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of SMM increased slightly by 00,200 tons from last Thursday to 403,700 tons, and the momentum of accumulation has slowed down. Compared with the change in inventory last Thursday, the inventory in all regions of the country has increased or decreased, and Shanghai has accumulated inventory, and Jiangsu and Guangdong have gone to storage. The total inventory is 226,800 tons higher than the 177,900 tons in the same period last year, specifically see ......" Click to view details
After nearly two months of continuous decline, the domestic alumina spot price stabilized and rose in the near future. According to SMM data, as of today, the SMM alumina weighted index was reported at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. SMM will explain the price trend and reasons of alumina in the past two months from the following time nodes..."Click to view details
According to customs data, the export situation: the export volume of refined lead in March 2024 was 4,310 tons, an increase of 139.53% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.56%...... To sum up, although the market trend in March was not conducive to the export of refined lead, its export volume still increased slightly compared with the previous month. Enter April ......》Click to view details
According to the latest customs data, 244,300 tons of zinc concentrate (physical tons) were imported in March 2024, a decrease of 2.73% (6,900 physical tons) in March compared with February, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.86%......》Click to view details
[SMM analysis: domestic tin ore imports increased sharply in March, and the import and export situation of tin ingots may be reversed] In March, the domestic tin ore import volume was 23,100 tons (equivalent to 6,197 metal tons), 36.49% month-on-month, 5.37% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to March was 60,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.81%. The domestic import volume of tin ingots in March was 852 tons, -18.08% month-on-month, -54.78% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to March was 5,892 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.96%......》Click to view details
According to the customs statistics platform, in March 2024, China imported refined nickel (containing nickel and cobalt ≥ 99.99%, cobalt ≤ 0.005% unwrought unalloyed nickel, other unwrought unalloyed nickel and unwrought nickel alloys) was 6,583 tons, an increase of 13.26% month-on-month in March compared with February..."
【SMM Sodium Electricity: Top Ten Consensus of the Sodium Electricity Industry in 2024】The sodium electricity industry in 2024 is a year for multiple technical routes to seek breakthroughs, and the main materials to break through and unify and coordinate. In the new energy industry, stable quality improvement and rapid cost reduction are the goals of the year and even the next few years. In terms of technology promotion and commercialization of sodium electricity, SMM has summarized the top ten consensus of the industry. >> Click here for details
According to customs data, China's import volume of other antimony ores and concentrates in March 2024 was 4,101.79 tons, a slight decrease compared with 4,516.44 tons in February and 4,385.04 tons in January. However, the export volume of antimony ore and its concentrate remained above 4,000 tons, but from the 2,489.36 tons imported in the same period last year, there was a significant increase year-on-year. >> Click here for details
►On April 23, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1059 yuan per US dollar per dollar
►LPR remained unchanged in April Expert: The second quarter may enter the policy observation period There is a lack of further downward adjustment in the short term
ECB Governing Council: Uncertainty over the Middle East conflict will not prevent the first drop in June
►Will the Bank of Japan be hawkish this week? Traders are on the lookout
►The contract structure of London copper in the near month has narrowed, and the price comparison has not improved, and the premium of Yangshan copper continues to fall [SMM Yangshan copper spot]
►Total bauxite imports increased by 5.19% month-on-month in March, and China's bauxite imports increased slightly by 2.16% year-on-year from January to March
►In March, the domestic net import of primary aluminum was 248,200 tons, a record high in the past three years
►In March, the export volume of primary aluminum was about 1,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77%
►In March, the import volume of primary aluminum was 249,400 tons, an increase of 246% year-on-year
►Lead prices are strong inside and weak outside, and lead-acid battery exports fell 23.92% year-on-year in March
►The supply and demand of lead ingots both declined, and the decline in social inventory narrowed
►In 2024, the domestic zinc market may have a slight surplus, and the center of gravity of zinc prices may move upward
►Refined zinc imports increased sharply in March It is expected that imports in April may fall back to about 30,000 tons
►The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven places increased by 3,200 tons
►Shanghai tin once rose more than 7%, tin ore supply disruption is still expected to be soldering in April
►In March, China imported 633,200 physical tons of ferronickel, down 14.0% month-on-month
►Analysis of import and export data of nickel wet intermediates and nickel matte in March
►Analysis of sulfate import and export data for nickel in March
►Shanghai nickel once rose more than 6% to a new high in half a year, what are the driving factors behind it?
►Stainless steel imports decreased by 30.76% in March, and overseas demand increased sharply, and exports exceeded 450,000 tons in March
►Artificial graphite exports increased significantly year-on-year
►Domestic lithium carbonate imports are expected to increase sharply in March Imports are expected to remain high in April
►Cobalt tetroxide exports increased by 71% month-on-month in March South Korea is the main exporter
►In March, the average import price of China's electrolytic cobalt declined, and the export volume soared under the influence of the domestic and foreign price difference
►In March, the average import volume of cobalt intermediates rose slightly, and the increase in import volume was limited
►Analysis of ternary precursor export data in March
►In March, ternary cathode exports increased by 83% month-on-month, and imports went out of the opposite trend
►Iron powder in Shandong still has some room for exploration
►Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments totaled 33.14 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 25.5%
►China's total steel exports rose 15% month-on-month last week
►SMM China's total coal arrivals were 6.5714 million tons, down 28.5% month-on-month
Shibor: 1.7800% overnight, down 1.70 basis points. The 7-day was at 1.8310%, down 3.90 basis points. The 3-month report is 2.0270%, down 0.80 basis points.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 20, China's copper scrap (copper scrap and scrap) imports in March were 218,243.28 tons, an increase of 43.3% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year. The U.S. was the largest supplier, importing 46,357.21 tonnes of copper scrap from the U.S. in the month, up 49% month-on-month and 34.5% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
Zijin Mining disclosed its report for the first quarter of 2024, with operating income of 74.777 billion yuan in the first quarter, down 0.22% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.261 billion yuan, up 15.05% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the company's overall operating costs, especially those of overseas projects, decreased significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the unit sales costs of mineral gold concentrate and copper concentrate decreased by 14% and 13% quarter-on-quarter respectively. >> Click here for details
China's alumina imports in March 2024 were 303,841.55 tons, up 4% month-on-month and 334.4% year-on-year, according to data released by the customs statistics online query platform on April 20. Australia was the largest supplier, importing 229,584.00 tonnes from the country in the month, up 68.2% month-on-month and 628.8% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
[Shanxi coking coal: net profit in 2023 will decrease by 37.03% year-on-year, and it is planned to distribute 8 yuan in 10] Shanxi coking coal disclosed the annual report, the company will achieve operating income of 55.523 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 14.82% (adjusted), net profit of 6.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.03%, and basic earnings per share of 1.23 yuan. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares.
According to the BNAmericas website, the "2024 World Silver Survey" report released by the World Silver Institute (TSI) shows that due to the shrinking production in Mexico, the world's mine silver production in 2024 will be 830.5 million ounces, a decrease of 1%. "Production was primarily impacted by a four-month shutdown at Newmont's Peñasquito mine in Mexico. Mexican silver production was 202.2 million ounces, down 5%". "Separately, lower grades and the closure of some mines had a negative impact on production in Argentina, where silver production fell by 4.9 million ounces, followed by a 3.1 million ounce decrease in Australia and a 1.4 million ounce decrease in Russia," the report added. However, these losses were partly compensated for by higher production in Chile (10.1 million ounces) and Bolivia (3.8 million ounces). TSI expects silver demand to be stable this year, with growth expected to be 2%. "Industrial silver is expected to grow by 9%, a record high, driven by a 20% growth in the PV market and solid growth in demand from other industrial sectors. Jewellery and silverware are expected to grow by 4% and 7% respectively, while demand for silver ingots and coins is expected to shrink by 13%." >> Click here for details
[A number of shipping companies issued a price increase letter in the off-season of the shipping market] The shipping market has obvious off-peak season characteristics, and the growth of freight rates is generally accompanied by the peak season of shipping. Recently, the industry has set off a "price rise tide" in the off-season. Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and other leading shipping companies have issued price increase letters, some routes have increased by nearly 70%, and a 40-foot container has risen by up to $2,000. It is reported that the scope of this round of price adjustment is mainly concentrated in the United States, South America, the Red Sea and other directions. (CCTV Finance)
LME copper is charging towards $10,000......
►General Administration of Customs: China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate increased by 15% year-on-year in March, and Chile is the largest supplier
►Citi: Copper, gold and silver have room for further upside
►BMO Capital Markets：铜市乐观但不看涨
►IMF: Sub-Saharan countries' metal output will soar
►Trafigura: New technology drives electricity consumption Copper demand will surge
►Zijin Mining's main copper and cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was shut down, and people familiar with the matter said that it has been tested by secondary sampling
►Aluminum inventory performance in Shanghai and London is differentiated, and aluminum inventory in London fell to a four-month low
►Expert Talk: Technological Progress and Market Demand in the Hot-dip Galvanizing Industry [SMM Lead and Zinc Summit]
►Expert Sharing: Relevant Progress in the Research of Medical Degradable Zinc-based Materials [SMM Lead and Zinc Summit]
►Brazil's Emma Rare Earth Mine has announced its first resource allocation
►Dario also loves gold: to hedge against debt and inflation crises!
►On April 22, the national carbon market price rose by 1.98%, and the total transaction of carbon emission allowances was 716,400 tons [Trading Daily]
[National Energy Administration: 45.74GW of new photovoltaic capacity from January to March] On April 22, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to March. As of the end of March, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 2.99 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 660 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 55.0%, and the installed capacity of wind power was about 460 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. >> Click here for details
Recently, a number of shipping companies have issued price increase letters, and the shipping market has set off a "price rise tide" in the off-season. This has also indirectly led to an increase in the price of new and second-hand upstream ships. The person in charge of a shipbuilding enterprise in Jiangsu said that the company has more than 80 orders in hand, which has been scheduled until 2028, and the current shipbuilding market is very hot. The data show that in the first two months of this year, both the number of shipbuilding completions, new ship orders, and hand-held ship orders have increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 95.4%, 64.4%, and 31.3% respectively. (Finance Associated Press)
(1) Huawei will hold two major press conferences on April 24: the Smart Vehicle Solution Conference, the Smart Electric & Smart Charging Network Strategy and the New Product Launch. (2) Huawei will also launch the "Supercharging Alliance". Previously, Yu Chengdong said that by the end of 2024, Huawei will deploy more than 100,000 fully liquid-cooled super-fast charging. (3) The construction of public supercharging is expected to be faster than the overall growth rate of charging piles
On the evening of April 19, Guoxuan Hi-Tech released its 2023 annual report, in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 31.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.11%, an operating profit of 975 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.28%, and a significant improvement in operating efficiency. The net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities was 2.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.86%, and the operating efficiency was improved. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. On the same day, Gotion Hi-Tech also released its first quarter report for 2024. In the first quarter, the company achieved revenue of 7.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.61%, and the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company increased by 195.26% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
[Sungrow: net profit in the first quarter increased by 39.05% year-on-year in 2023 to be transferred to 4 to distribute 9.65 yuan] Sungrow disclosed the first quarter report of 2024, with a net profit of 2.096 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 39.05%. On the same day, the 2023 annual report was disclosed, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 162.7%, and it is planned to transfer 10 to 4 distributions of 9.65 yuan.
With the transformation of the global energy structure, energy storage technology is increasingly becoming a key force to promote the new energy revolution. EVTank data shows that global energy storage battery shipments will climb rapidly to 224.2 GWh in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, of which Chinese companies' energy storage battery shipments account for 90.9% of the global market. However, the vigorous development of the energy storage market is also accompanied by many challenges, among which LCOE optimization is a pain point that the industry needs to solve urgently, and the search for larger capacity, longer cycle life, and better energy efficiency has become the mainstream development trend of the energy storage industry. >> Click here for details
[JinkoSolar: Net profit in 2023 increased by 153.2% year-on-year, and it is planned to pay 2.24 yuan for 10 distributions] JinkoSolar disclosed its 2023 annual report, with a net profit of 7.44 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 153.2%, and 2.24 yuan for 10 distributions.
[Apple's supply chain adds 8 Chinese mainland enterprises such as Baoti shares] According to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter, Apple's supply chain in 2023 will add 8 Chinese mainland enterprises, namely Baoti shares, Jiuquan Iron and Steel, Zhongshi Weiye Technology, Kaicheng Technology, Sanan Optoelectronics, Boshuo Technology, Tony Electronics, Zhenghe Group; excluding 4 mainland enterprises, namely Jiangsu Jingyan Technology, Meiyingsen Group, Shenzhen Derun Electronics and profitable, the aforementioned supply chain list covers Apple's global product materials that year, 98% direct expenditure on manufacturing and assembly.
Nguyen Chi Dung, Minister of Planning and Investment, met with Keith Strier, vice president of Nvidia, in Hanoi on April 22 to discuss measures to accelerate the construction and development of Vietnam's semiconductor and artificial intelligence ecosystem. (Bloomberg)
►National Energy Administration: In 2024, we will actively promote the formulation and revision of the Renewable Energy Law
►The new power system puts forward multiple requirements for batteries and needs to meet the "three highs + 1 economy" [SMM Lead and Zinc Summit]
►Lei Jun posted: If you are really in a hurry, you can buy Zhijie S7 and so on
►AISWEI, Sungrow, GoodWe and Crestec were shortlisted for the centralized procurement order of 800MW string grid-connected inverter of Zhongling Star Energy
►The whole system is generally reduced, and the highest drop of MEGA is 30,000 yuan, and the ideal follows Tesla to join the "price war"
►Huayou Cobalt: Net profit of 3.351 billion yuan in 2023, shipments of cobalt and nickel products increased by 12% and 88% year-on-year
►Hunan Yuneng will sell 506,800 tons of lithium iron phosphate in 2023 and plans to build a factory in Spain for 982 million
►Mainland China has developed the world's first gallium nitride quantum light source chip, and the commercialization of quantum technology is expected
►The global economic "canary" reported good news again: South Korea's semiconductor exports increased by 43% year-on-year in early April