Gold: Gold overnight posted its biggest one-day drop since June 2022, down around 2.6% overall, but it remains one of the best-performing assets year-to-date. The retreat of risk aversion and the entry of a period of silence among Fed officials led to an increase in gold selling, which led to a decline in prices.
Last week's conflict between Israel and Iran once pushed gold to rise rapidly, but at present, both sides have shown more restraint, the two sides have no intention of expanding the war, and the probability of geopolitical risk escalation has decreased, which has also contributed to the decline in risk aversion and the weakening of gold buying.
In addition, Fed officials have entered a period of silence, and the fickle stance of Fed officials on the issue of interest rate cuts in the early stage has caused a lot of disruption to the market, and the market is more technical before the new Fed interest rate decision comes out. Given the IMF's recent reiteration of "unsustainable debt levels in the United States", the future of gold remains promising.
Technicals: Gold daily closed large black candle, short-term oversold signs. There is a possibility that the price of the 4-hour period will form a compound top, and the price has fallen below the moving average system, and there is a high probability that the short-term will continue to fall. In the short term, you can pay attention to the pressure on the upper $2338 line.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
In terms of crude oil: oil prices fell slightly overnight and then partially recovered losses, and the price reached the previous high, and there is some support in theory. There is no clear signal of a trend change in the big cycle, and the current trend is best defined as a pullback.
According to Bloomberg, Russian crude exports surged 560,000 b/d to 3.95 million b/d in the second week of April, the highest level in nearly 11 months through ports, a change in strategy after the attack on Russian refineries in the early stage, that is, crude oil exports increased and refined oil exports decreased to reduce pressure on domestic refineries.
Global economic growth expectations have been revised upwards, OECD countries' demand has stabilized from a decline, and the annual demand has been raised from 102.8 million barrels per day to 103.2 million barrels per day, and OECD countries' crude oil inventories are declining, and the number of available inventory days may fall to 86 days by the end of the third quarter.
Technical: Crude oil daily line closed the hammer line, and there is a possibility of stabilization in the short term. There are signs of structural completion in the 1-hour cycle, and the short-term can focus on the $83 line, and if it breaks above the $83 line, the short-term may go further higher.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
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