Germany began a long-term overseas military program

Source: China National Defense News, China Military Horn

On April 8, the Bundeswehr Army Chief Maiss and others arrived at Vilnius Airport in Lithuania.

On April 8, a 20-member Bundeswehr advance team, led by Bundeswehr Army Chief Maiss, flew aboard an A400M military transport plane to Vilnius Airport in Lithuania, a Baltic Sea coastal country. This marked the official launch of Germany's first long-term overseas military station program after World War II, and it immediately attracted widespread attention.

The process of garrisoning is "step by step"

In December 2023, German Defense Minister Pistorius visited Lithuania and signed a garrison agreement with Lithuanian Defense Minister Anusauskas. According to the agreement, from 2025, one brigade-sized unit of about 5,000 Wehrmacht troops will be formed and permanently stationed in Rudeningkai and Rukla, near Vilnius and Kaunas, two major cities in Lithuania. The brigade is a heavy combat brigade, and its "Forward Preliminary Command" will be operational in the second quarter of this year and will develop into an "advance deployment team" of about 150 people by the end of the year. The brigade consists of the 122nd Armored Infantry Battalion, the 203rd Tank Battalion and one multinational mixed battalion, and is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027.

After the end of the Second World War, the main task of the Bundeswehr was to "defend the homeland". In the post-Cold War era, although the reunified Germany has gradually participated in overseas military operations, it has been embedded in the framework of multilateral international organizations such as NATO and the European Union, and has limited cooperation with its allies within the collective security mechanism. It can be said that this long-term military garrison plan is the result of Germany's efforts to take advantage of the situation in recent years to seek a better situation and concentrate on its operations. It began with the Crimean crisis in 2014, followed by the Warsaw summit in 2016, when NATO in Warsaw aimed at strengthening its military deployment on the eastern flank, deciding to deploy one multinational battle group each in the three Baltic states and Poland. As a traditional army power, Germany served as the "framework country" for the battle group in Lithuania. The German-led multinational force, with about 1,600 men, about half of which is the Bundeswehr, rotates twice a year.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, NATO decided to expand the size of the multinational battle group from battalion to brigade and adopt a new operational structure. In this context, Germany has set out to send two additional tank battalions to Lithuania with a total of about 650 troops, and set up a forward command post in Rukla, so that the Bundeswehr can quickly deploy to Lithuania for exercises, or to respond as quickly as possible in the event of a threat, and even to be stationed in Lithuania under certain circumstances. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, it was decided to continue to increase the number of forward troops and optimize their structure. During the summit, about 1,000 German officers and soldiers and about 300 armored vehicles were rapidly deployed to Lithuania for the third German exercise of the year in Lithuania. Five months later, Germany and Lithuania signed a long-term military stationing agreement.

The strategic transformation is gradually advancing

Commentators believe that the German government's commitment to long-term assistance in the defense of Lithuania is an important step within the framework of NATO, and it is also closely related to its strategic transformation under the overall judgment of the "turning point of the times".

As a major participant and defeated country in two world wars, Germany has long adhered to the concept of "military restraint" and has been very cautious about the use of force. In recent years, with the continuous changes in the international and European security situation, the mainstream concept of German political circles has changed, and there is no longer a debate on whether or not to use force, but a discussion on how to use force, and the national defense policy has been sharply adjusted. At the beginning of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a high-profile public speech entitled "The Turning Point of the Times". In June 2023, the German government released its first National Security Strategy, emphasizing greater responsibility and a more important role in European defense.

On April 4, the 75th anniversary of NATO's founding, Pistorius announced that Germany had officially launched the most comprehensive military reform since the Cold War, and proposed to reinstate the compulsory military service system, which had been suspended in 2011. Pistorius regarded the permanent stationing of the Bundeswehr in Lithuania as an extremely important project in this round of military reform. "With this combat brigade, we will assume leadership responsibilities within the NATO alliance on the eastern flank of NATO," he noted. In order to advance this garrison program, the German Ministry of Defense will equip the brigade's 203rd Tank Battalion with advanced Leopard-2A7V main battle tanks.

The subsequent impact is far-reaching

The change from a temporary rotation of German troops in Lithuania to a permanent garrison stems from the vacancy in NATO's European defense left by the United States' strategic eastward shift and the changes in the security situation in Europe and its surrounding regions. Germany's move is aimed at demonstrating its military strength and its new national strategic positioning. It also heralds a major shift in Germany's role in Europe's political and security landscape, which will have a broad impact on the regional security architecture.

Germany's long-term overseas military stationing program reflects the clear orientation and trend of Germany's military strength turning into "outward and aggressive." Pistorius noted in a talk show that the Bundeswehr in Lithuania would follow the model of the U.S. presence in Ramstein, Germany. Lithuania, with a population of 2.8 million and an army of about 15,000, is eager to "reinsure" itself against the backdrop of the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the eastward shift of the US strategic center of gravity. After several rounds of consultations, Lithuania basically accepted the model proposed by Germany. Lithuania promised to build and afford as soon as possible the barracks, warehouses, training grounds, and other military facilities needed by the permanent troops, and to jointly build schools, medical care, and other infrastructure facilities needed by the families of the soldiers with Germany. It can be expected that Germany is likely to follow this model in the future and carry out more military involvement and even presence in hot spots in Europe and even the world.

In the long run, the expansion of the scope of German operations abroad is not conducive to its economic development and the improvement of people's livelihood, and will also have a negative impact on German and regional security. Some experts estimate that Germany spends between 25 million and 30 million euros per month to maintain one combat brigade. The Scholz government's change from the diplomatic strategy of "balance of great powers" pursued by the country and blindly follow the United States to adopt a more confrontational and even offensive national defense strategy will inevitably aggravate the complexity and danger of the security situation in the European region, and it will itself face the impact of the backlash effect.

(Produced by China National Defense News, China Military Horn)