[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.4.22
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a narrow range of shocks, the two cities fell more than the rise of the two stocks, more than 3,000 stocks in the green, half a day turnover of 557.1 billion, northbound net inflow of 602 million.
Affected by the unfavorable factors released by the external market, from the current technical situation, the short-term trend of A shares is at a crossroads, and in the short term, A shares may usher in a period of volatility adjustment, especially in the 60-minute level of the trend may retrace again to confirm the strength of support, but it is expected that the downside is relatively limited, the key support area of the Shanghai Index is roughly around 3000 points, and the gem may find support around 1720 points.
And my personal judgment, although the market is still weak, but in fact, the current market correction process or has come to an end, we are standing in an important node of a round of market style transformation, the recent performance of the eye-catching "special valuation" concept and resource stocks, in the next time may appear to a certain adjustment;
Therefore, for ordinary investors, there is no need to be overly worried about the current situation of the A-stock market, but can be regarded as a good time to intervene in the dip. Especially this week, for those technology stocks with a solid performance foundation, it is recommended that you can adopt a batch and gradual absorption method to layout, and timely grasp the valuation repair opportunities behind technology stocks, which is a wise move for ordinary investors to deal with the A-share market at this stage.
From the perspective of plates, the ground armament, aquaculture, and military electronics sectors led the rise today, while the precious metals, coal mining, and coal sectors led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, there was a net inflow of the main forces of national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and military-civilian integration, and a net outflow of the main forces of high-end manufacturing, Huawei, and China Special Assessment.
From the perspective of the index, Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry, CSI Animal Husbandry, and China Internet were among the top gainers on the 50th, while CSI Coal, Coal and Communication Equipment were the last to increase on a daily basis.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average, golden cross, 10-day, 20-day moving average, MACD indicator death fork, green column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator death fork convergence upward, J value probe top turn, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, after this wave of technical adjustment, the index has achieved a short-term technical breakthrough in the past two days, standing above the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, but other technical indicators have little upside, and there is also a trend of stagflation at the top, so it cannot be said that the current technical side has opened the upward channel, but it can be said that the downward resistance will be greater than the upward trend.
【Fundamentals & News】
CCTV News reported that in the first half of April, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 50% for the first time to 50.39%, surpassing that of traditional fuel passenger vehicles for the first time. (New Energy Vehicles)
CCTV financial news, as the "May Day" holiday approaches, the tourism market continues to heat up, and the number of holiday bookings has increased by 30% compared with the same period last year. (Tourism)
· The IMF expects that a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could trigger a spike in oil prices, which would undermine global efforts to fight inflation. (Oil Price)
Since the beginning of this year, 7 stocks have been delisted, and the power of market-oriented "clearing" is accelerating. (Delisted)
Copper prices are expected to rise by 26.5% by 2026 from current levels, according to bank reports. (Colored)
The size of China's Chinese humanoid robot market will be 2.158 billion yuan in 2024 and reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound growth rate of more than 61% from 2024 to 2030. (Robot)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.29, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.74, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.22, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 42.26, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.84, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.34, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 22.05, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Technology: The turmoil in the U.S. stock market has vividly demonstrated the power of the "butterfly effect", with a company called Supermicro Computer sparking doubts about its performance after failing to forecast its third-quarter financial results as usual, causing a deep correction in its stock price, falling by as much as 23%. And this wave of vibration is like a ripple spreading, directly affecting the closely related AI chip manufacturers such as Nvidia, causing the stock prices of these companies to be frustrated, and the Nasdaq index has also been dragged down, which in turn affects the opening and trend of the A-share technology sector today, following the shock adjustment of U.S. stocks.
Although the volatility of overseas markets has brought some short-term pressure, I think this is a potential window of opportunity for the domestic A-share technology sector. At the beginning of the month, the central government launched a major policy - the establishment of special re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, with a limit of up to 500 billion yuan and an interest rate of only 1.75%, which undoubtedly provided a strong policy driving force for financial institutions to support technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises and key technological transformation projects.
In view of this, although A-share technology stocks may fluctuate due to the sentiment of the international stock market in the short term, from a medium-term perspective, the country's firm support and substantial capital investment in the field of scientific and technological innovation indicate that the technology industry will continue to benefit and is expected to become an important investment theme throughout the year. Therefore, in the face of the current market adjustment, investors do not need to panic too much, but should grasp the layout of the market low, pay attention to those technology enterprises with core technologies and great development potential, and patiently wait for the favorable policies to gradually transform into the driving force for enterprise value enhancement.
【Strategy Sharing】
Get on the bus today: CSI Environmental Protection.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: S&P 500, S&P Biologics, Vietnam market.
Prepare to get off: infrastructure engineering, military index.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.